Races · Governor · 2026 · CA

Governor · incumbent running

California Governor

← CA Governor CO Governor →

Likely D — · 127 days to election · 0 polls · 0 markets Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 96% D

likely-d · high-tipping

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

D +24.3

80% CI: D +6.8 → D +41.8 · win prob 96%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	0
Days to election	132
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models1 models

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

D +24.3

80% CI D +6.8 → D +41.8

CV MAE 13.66

last poll — last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/4/2026 Likely D via pvi