Races · Governor · 2026 · SD
Governor · open seat
South Dakota Governor
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
Verified Safe R · model 100% R
safe-r · low-tipping
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +36.5
80% CI: R +54.0 → R +19.0 · win prob 0%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 181 |
| Residual σ | 13.66pt |
| Generated | 5/6/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models2 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +33.4
80% CI R +36.9 → R +30.2
CV MAE 7.21
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +36.5
80% CI R +54.0 → R +19.0
CV MAE 13.66
Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater
3 raters| Rater | Rating | Updated | Poll D-marg. | Rater marg. | Δ poll−rater |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Safe R | Sep 11 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Inside Elections | Safe R | Aug 28 | — | -18.0 | — |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe R | Sep 4 | — | -18.0 | — |
Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.
last poll — last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
- 5/3/2026 Safe R via markets