Races · house · 2026 · New York
house · open seat
New York house
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+32) suggests Safe D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+43.2 with an 80% CI ranging from D+27.1 (10th pctile) to D+59.3 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 100/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
100
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement100
61.3pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution100 / 100
Measured61.3pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +43.2
80% CI: D +27.1 → D +59.3 · win prob 99%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 0 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +57.2
80% CI D +49.3 → D +69.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +4.1
80% CI R +8.7 → D +0.5
CV MAE 3.58
consensusMarket-implied
D +14.8
no interval
market-implied
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 94¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NY-10 House seat?” | 94¢ | 2¢ | -1¢ | — | +0 |
Endorsements · 43 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet43
Endorsements tracked
Brad Lander43 · 100%
Republican0 · 0%
Total43
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DBrad Lander43 endorsers
Most notable · Andrew Gounardes · state senator from the 26th district (2019–present)
Organizations21
Organizations · 21
- 32BJ SEIU
- American Priorities
- Christopher Street Project
- Citizen Action · of New York
- College Democrats of America
- Communication Workers of America · District 1
- IfNotNow
- Indivisible
- Make the Road Action
- MoveOn
- New York State Nurses Association
- Our Revolution
- Professional Staff Congress
- Progressive Change Campaign Committee
- Progressive Democrats of America
- Progressive Victory
- Stonewall Democratic Club of New York
- Stonewall Democrats
- The Jewish Vote
- United Auto Workers · Region 9A
- Working Families Party
Elected officials19
Federal 2State 8Local 8
Elected officials · 19
- Andrew Gounardes · state senator from the 26th district (2019–present)
- Jabari Brisport · state senator from the 25th district (2021–present)
- Julia Salazar · state senator from the 18th district (2019–present)
- Alexa Avilés · New York City councilmember from the 38th district (2022–present)
- Bernie Sanders · Vermont (2007–present) (Independent)
- Crystal Hudson · New York City councilmember from the 35th district (2022–present)
- Elizabeth Holtzman · New York City Comptroller (1990–1993) and U.S. Representative NY-16 (1973–1981)
- Elizabeth Warren · Massachusetts (2013–present)
- Emily Gallagher · state assemblymember from the 50th district (2021–present)
- Jennifer Gutiérrez · New York City councilmember from the 34th district (2022–present)
- Jessica González-Rojas · state assemblymember from the 34th district (2021–present)
- Jumaane Williams · public advocate of New York City (2019–present)
- Justin Brannan · New York City councilmember from the 47th district (2018–2025)
- Lincoln Restler · New York City councilmember from the 33rd district (2022–present)
- Robert Carroll · state assemblymember from the 44th district (2017–present)
- Sandy Nurse · New York City councilmember from the 37th district (2022–present)
- Shahana Hanif · New York City councilmember from the 39th district (2022–present)
- Yuh-Line Niou · former state assemblymember from the 65th district (2017–2022)
- Zohran Mamdani · mayor of New York City (2026–present)
Celebrity3
Celebrity · 3
- Ana María Archila · activist and former co-director of the New York Working Families Party
- Ben McKenzie · actor, author, and commentator
- Jennifer Welch · political commentator
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-06-19Brad LanderH6NY10176 ↗
Receipts
$2.2M
Disburse
$1.8M
Cash on hand
$493.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$170.5K
D side
$140.5K · 82%
R side
$30.0K · 18%
Top spender
Working Families Pa…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Working Families Party PAC other · boosts D
| D | $84.0K | 49% | for Brad Lander |
| Indivisible Action other · boosts D
| D | $30.3K | 18% | for Brad Lander |
| New Engagement PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $30.0K | 18% | against Brad Lander |
| MoveOn.org Political Action other · boosts D
| D | $24.8K | 15% | for Brad Lander |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D4
Safe D · 4 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-06-19
Endorsements84 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks