Pollster · 39 of 1769
University of North Florida
Polls scored
10
Mean error
4.5 pt
Signed bias
D+3.48
Aggregation weight
0.83
Pollster vs prediction market
From 38 race-polls · 6 matched marketsPre-poll P(D) (avg)
11.1%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
0.0 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+4.8 pt
Net direction markets moved toward University of North Florida's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components59
of 100 · tier · moderate
Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
d-leanAcross 20 graded races, University of North Florida's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +9.5pp. That's a measurable D-lean vs the consensus.
Mean delta
+9.5pp
Median delta
+10.0pp
Std-dev
6.6pp
N graded
20
Recent activity
Total all time
38
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
5
Recent polls
- 3/1/2026Florida · Governor · 2026Byron Donalds 43.0 · Jerry Demings 36.0
- 3/1/2026Florida · Governor · 2026Byron Donalds 42.0 · David Jolly 36.0
- 3/1/2026Florida · Senate (special) · 2026Ashley Moody 46.0 · Angie Nixon 38.0
- 3/1/2026Florida · Senate (special) · 2026Ashley Moody 45.0 · Alexander Vindman 38.0
- 2/19/2026Florida · Governor · 2026Jay Collins 4.0 · Byron Donalds 31.0 · James Fishback 6.0 · Paul Renner 1.0
- 10/24/2025Florida · Governor · 2026Byron Donalds 45.0 · Jerry Demings 33.0
- 10/24/2025Florida · Governor · 2026Byron Donalds 45.0 · David Jolly 34.0
- 10/24/2025Florida · Governor · 2026Casey DeSantis 47.0 · David Jolly 34.0
- 10/24/2025Florida · Governor · 2026Casey DeSantis 47.0 · Jerry Demings 36.0
- 10/24/2025Florida · Senate (special) · 2026Ashley Moody 49.0 · Jennifer Jenkins 38.0