Races · Senate · 2026 · FL
Senate · class II · open seat

Alexander Vindman vs Ashley Moody

← DE Senate GA Senate →
Likely R R +7.2 · 176 days to election · 12 polls · 0 markets Last poll 27d ago Rating 1d ago
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

likely-r · low-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-medium
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +10.9
80% CI: R +15.3 → R +6.5 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used12
Days to election181
Residual σ3.44pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +11.7
80% CI R +16.4 → R +11.0
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +9.3
80% CI R +10.5 → R +8.0
CV MAE 0.98
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +10.9
80% CI R +15.3 → R +6.5
CV MAE 3.44

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 12 results

12 of 12 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
4/13/2026Stetson University1.00—848—LV
no scored polls✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ashley Moody 51.0 · Angie Nixon 38.0pollarch
4/13/2026Stetson University1.00—848—LV
no scored polls✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ashley Moody 49.0 · Alexander Vindman 42.0pollarch
4/9/2026Echelon Insights1.00—(R+1.0)406—LV
high variance vs editorial consensus✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ashley Moody 50.0 · Alexander Vindman 43.0pollarch
4/3/2026MDW1.00L1834—LV
no scored polls✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,834
    Sample size of 1,834 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Ashley Moody 43.0 · Alexander Vindman 42.0pollarch
4/3/2026Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)574—RV
uncorrelated with editorial consensus✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ashley Moody 43.0 · Alexander Vindman 40.0pollarch
3/31/2026Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1125—LV
✓ verified 5d agolikely-voter screen+2
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ashley Moody 47.0 · Angie Nixon 36.0pollarch
3/31/2026Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1125—LV
✓ verified 5d agolikely-voter screen+2
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ashley Moody 46.0 · Alexander Vindman 38.0pollarch
3/31/2026Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1125—LV
✓ verified 5d agolikely-voter screen+2
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ashley Moody 45.0 · Hector Mujica 38.0pollarch
3/2/2026University of North Florida0.81L(D+5.0)786—LV
69d oldD+8.6pt vs editors+3
  • 69d old
    Poll was fielded 69 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+8.6pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Orlando Sentinel
    Commissioned by Orlando Sentinel, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Ashley Moody 46.0 · Angie Nixon 38.0pollarch
3/2/2026University of North Florida0.81L(D+5.0)786—LV
69d oldD+8.6pt vs editors+3
  • 69d old
    Poll was fielded 69 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+8.6pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Orlando Sentinel
    Commissioned by Orlando Sentinel, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Ashley Moody 45.0 · Alexander Vindman 38.0pollarch
10/25/2025University of North Florida0.81L(D+5.0)728—LV
197d oldD+8.6pt vs editors+2
  • 197d old
    Poll was fielded 197 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+8.6pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 8.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ashley Moody 49.0 · Jennifer Jenkins 38.0pollarch
10/3/2025The Tyson Group1.00R800—LV
advocacy-funded: PUP Advocacyno scored polls+3
  • advocacy-funded: PUP Advocacy
    This poll was commissioned by an advocacy group / coalition / Super PAC (PUP Advocacy) — read with attention to their issue stance.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 219d old
    Poll was fielded 219 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ashley Moody 44.0 · Jennifer Jenkins 37.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 34 total
Ashley Moody (R)
34 endorsements · source
Elected officials (2)
  • Donald Trump — president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 12 ]
  • Senate Conservatives Fund — [ 24 ]
Organizations / unions (4)
  • Florida Association of Realtors — [ 21 ]
  • Florida Farm Bureau Federation — [ 22 ]
  • National Association of Realtors — [ 21 ]
  • Republican Party of Florida — [ 25 ]
Other (28)
  • Aaron Bean — FL-04 (2023–present) [ 15 ]
  • Associated Builders and Contractors — of Florida [ 20 ]
  • Bob Gualtieri — Pinellas County sheriff (2011–present) [ 8 ]
  • Brian Mast — FL-21 (2017–present) [ 15 ]
  • Chad Chronister — Hillsborough County sheriff (2017–present) [ 8 ]
  • Dennis Lemma — Seminole County sheriff (2017–present) [ 8 ]
  • Fraternal Order of Police — f Police [ 19 ]
  • Grady Judd — Polk County sheriff (2005–present) [ 8 ]
  • Gus Bilirakis — FL-12 (2007–present) [ 15 ]
  • Jimmy Patronis — FL-01 (2025–present) [ 15 ]
  • John Mina — Orange County sheriff (2018–present) (Democratic) [ 8 ]
  • Kat Cammack — FL-03 (2021–present) [ 15 ]
  • Laurel Lee — FL-15 (2023–present) [ 17 ]
  • Maggie's List — [ 23 ]
  • Mario Díaz-Balart — FL-26 (2003–present) [ 15 ]
  • Mike Chitwood — Volusia County sheriff (2017–present) (independent) [ 8 ]
  • Mike Haridopolos — FL-08 (2025–present) [ 15 ]
  • Morris A. Young — Gadsden County sheriff (2004–present) (Democratic) [ 8 ]
  • Neal Dunn — FL-02 (2017–present) [ 15 ]
  • Ric Bradshaw — Palm Beach County sheriff (2005–present) (Democratic) [ 8 ]
  • Rick Scott — Florida (2019–present) [ 13 ]
  • Rosie Cordero-Stutz — Miami-Dade County sheriff (2025–present) [ 8 ]
  • Scott Franklin — FL-18 (2021–present) [ 15 ]
  • T. K. Waters — Duval County sheriff (2022–present) [ 8 ]
  • Ted Cruz — Texas (2013–present) [ 14 ]
  • Vern Buchanan — FL-16 (2013–present) [ 16 ]
  • [ 18 ] — te attorneys [ 18 ]
  • [ 8 ] — her county sheriffs [ 8 ]
last poll 4 weeks ago (4/13/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely R R+7.2 via polls

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