Pollster · 212 of 1053

ActiVote

GRADE A− D-LEAN
↗ Wikipedia
Polls scored
51
Mean error
4.0 pt
Signed bias
D+3.92
Aggregation weight
1.01

Pollster vs prediction market

From 51 race-polls · 7 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
10.1%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
-1.9 pt
Average move within 24h of release
Market alignment
+5.3 pt
Net direction markets moved toward ActiVote's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components
75
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight 51
Verification rate 100
Sample size median 39
Citation rate 100
Outlier rate (inv.) 100
Rater alignment 92
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 47 graded races, ActiVote's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.0pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
+1.0pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
6.9pp
N graded
47
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2024-inus-governor-2024-inus-governor-2024-mo
Recent activity
Total all time
51
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0

Last poll 10/31/2024 (555d ago) · status dormant

Per-cycle debrief appearances
Cycle Rank Polls MAE Signed bias
2024 #13 / 26 22 4.01 pt D+3.97 pp
2022 #15 / 36 4 3.65 pt D+3.65 pp
Recent polls