Pollster · 143 of 1769
ActiVote
Polls scored
22
Mean error
3.8 pt
Signed bias
D+3.76
Aggregation weight
1.01
Pollster vs prediction market
From 57 race-polls · 7 matched marketsPre-poll P(D) (avg)
10.1%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
-0.2 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+5.3 pt
Net direction markets moved toward ActiVote's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components70
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 47 graded races, ActiVote's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.0pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+1.0pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
6.9pp
N graded
47
Recent activity
Total all time
57
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #13 / 26 | 22 | 4.01 pt | D+3.97 pp |
| 2022 | #15 / 36 | 4 | 3.65 pt | D+3.65 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/30/2024North Carolina · Governor · 2024Josh Stein 58.0 · Mark Robinson 42.0
- 10/30/2024Arizona · Senate · 2024Ruben Gallego 54.0 · Kari Lake 46.0
- 10/30/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 51.0 · Mike Rogers 49.0
- 10/30/2024Minnesota · Senate · 2024Royce White 44.0
- 10/30/2024Pennsylvania · Senate · 2024Bob Casey Jr. 50.5 · Dave McCormick 49.5
- 10/30/2024Wisconsin · Senate · 2024Tammy Baldwin 54.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0
- 10/29/2024Massachusetts · Senate · 2024Elizabeth Warren 63.0 · John Deaton 37.0
- 10/29/2024Maryland · Senate · 2024Angela Alsobrooks 57.0 · Larry Hogan 43.0
- 10/28/2024Washington · Governor · 2024Bob Ferguson 59.0 · Dave Reichert 41.0
- 10/27/2024Indiana · Governor · 2024Mike Braun 56.0 · Jennifer McCormick 44.0