Races · Governor · 2024 · Missouri

Governor · open seat

Crystal Quade vs Mike Kehoe

← Indiana Governor Montana Governor →

Safe RR +21.8 forecast· 9 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% Quade (D)
99% Kehoe (R)
Win probability
Crystal Quade1% (D)
Mike Kehoe99% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +21.8
80% CIR+33.8 → R+9.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +21.8 · 80% CI R+33.8 → R+9.8
Actual result R+20.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+21.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+33.8 (10th pctile) to R+9.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +21.8

80% CI: R +33.8 → R +9.8 · win prob 1%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	9
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+20.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
30354045505560KEHOE 54.5QUADE 38.7OCT '23MAY '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 9 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 2, 24	Research Co.+1For · Research Co.	450 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.450 tracked	-0.7aligned	38 · 52
Oct 28, 24	Remington Research Group+1For · Remington	721 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	40 · 51
Oct 26, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	42 · 58
Oct 2, 24	Remington Research Group+1	753 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	41 · 51
Sep 30, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	40 · 60
Sep 12, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	850 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	36 · 52
Sep 4, 24	Remington Research Group+1For · Remington	940 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	34 · 52
Aug 15, 24	YouGov/Saint Louis University	900 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	41 · 51
Oct 30, 23	Show Me Victories+1For · Show Me Victories	407 · RV	D-LEAN	—	+19.9d lean	33 · 38

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet

RMike Kehoe0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

DCrystal Quade0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe R5

CNalysis

Safe R

Aug 16

The Cook Political Report

Safe R

Jun 12

Elections Daily

Safe R

Jul 11

Inside Elections

Safe R

Jul 13

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe R

Jun 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified9 / 9deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filings—no filings yet

Endorsements—nothing to sync

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks