| 11/2/2024 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 744 | — | LV | 🟡554d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
554d old Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Elizabeth Warren 60.0 · John Deaton 37.0 | pollarch |
| 11/1/2024 | MassINC Polling Group | 1.00 | — | 582 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡555d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
555d old Poll was fielded 555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Elizabeth Warren 55.0 · John Deaton 33.0 | pollarch |
| 10/30/2024 | ActiVote | 1.01 | L(D+3.9) | 400 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.9pt🟡557d old+3- 🟠
historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
557d old Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Elizabeth Warren 63.0 · John Deaton 37.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2024 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡561d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
561d old Poll was fielded 561 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · John Deaton 36.0 | pollarch |
| 10/10/2024 | UMass Amherst/YouGov/WCVB | 1.00 | — | 700 | — | A | 🟡no scored polls🟡adult sample+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
577d old Poll was fielded 577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · John Deaton 34.0 | pollarch |
| 10/6/2024 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡581d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
581d old Poll was fielded 581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Elizabeth Warren 59.0 · John Deaton 35.0 | pollarch |
| 9/21/2024 | Opinion Diagnostics | 1.00 | R | 638 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡596d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
596d old Poll was fielded 596 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Elizabeth Warren 53.0 · John Deaton 32.0 | pollarch |
| 9/18/2024 | MassINC Polling Group | 1.00 | — | 800 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡599d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
599d old Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · John Deaton 35.0 | pollarch |
| 9/16/2024 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 564 | — | LV | 🟡601d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
601d old Poll was fielded 601 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Elizabeth Warren 58.0 · John Deaton 32.0 | pollarch |
| 7/22/2023 | Fiscal Alliance Foundation | 1.00 | — | 750 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1023d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1023d old Poll was fielded 1023 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Elizabeth Warren 41.0 · Karyn Polito 29.0 | pollarch |
| 5/30/2023 | YouGov | 1.00 | —(D+3.7) | 700 | — | A | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡adult sample+2- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1076d old Poll was fielded 1076 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Elizabeth Warren 47.0 · John Deaton 24.0 | pollarch |
| 5/30/2023 | YouGov | 1.00 | —(D+3.7) | 700 | — | A | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡adult sample+2- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1076d old Poll was fielded 1076 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Elizabeth Warren 50.0 · Robert Antonellis 23.0 | pollarch |
| 5/30/2023 | YouGov | 1.00 | —(D+3.7) | 700 | — | A | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡adult sample+2- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1076d old Poll was fielded 1076 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Elizabeth Warren 48.0 · Ian Cain 24.0 | pollarch |
| 5/30/2023 | YouGov | 1.00 | —(D+3.7) | 700 | — | A | 🟠historical bias D+3.7pt🟡adult sample+2- 🟠
historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1076d old Poll was fielded 1076 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Elizabeth Warren 48.0 · Aaron Packard 23.0 | pollarch |
| 5/7/2023 | Fiscal Alliance Foundation | 1.00 | — | 750 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1099d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1099d old Poll was fielded 1099 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Elizabeth Warren 34.0 · Charlie Baker 49.0 | pollarch |
| 2/5/2023 | Suffolk University | 1.44 | neutral(D+0.1) | 1000 | — | LV | 🟡1190d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1190d old Poll was fielded 1190 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Elizabeth Warren 56.0 · Johnathan Kraft 33.0 | pollarch |