Races · Senate · 2024 · Massachusetts

Senate · class I · open seat

Elizabeth Warren vs John Deaton

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Safe DD +28.0 forecast· 10 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Warren (D)
1% Deaton (R)
Win probability
Elizabeth Warren99% (D)
John Deaton1% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +28.0
80% CID+16.0 → D+40.0
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +28.0 · 80% CI D+16.0 → D+40.0
Actual result D+19.8 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+13) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+28.0 with an 80% CI ranging from D+16.0 (10th pctile) to D+40.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +28.0

80% CI: D +16.0 → D +40.0 · win prob 99%

R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	10
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+19.8
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
20253035404550556065WARREN 57.4DEATON 35.6MAY '23FEB '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 10 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 1, 24	University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire	744 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	60 · 37
Oct 31, 24	MassINC Polling Group	582 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	-1.3aligned	55 · 33
Oct 29, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	63 · 37
Oct 25, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	56 · 36
Oct 9, 24	UMass Amherst/YouGov/WCVBFor · UMass Amherst	700 · A	NEUTRAL	—	—	56 · 34
Oct 5, 24	Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.221 tracked	+0.8aligned	59 · 35
Sep 20, 24	Opinion DiagnosticsFor · CommonWealth Beacon	638 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	-3.2r lean	53 · 32
Sep 17, 24	MassINC Polling Group	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	-1.3aligned	56 · 35
Sep 15, 24	University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire	564 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.912 tracked	+0.3aligned	58 · 32
May 29, 23	YouGov	700 · A	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	47 · 24

Endorsements · 21 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

21Warren · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Elizabeth Warren21 · 100%
John Deaton0 · 0%
Total21
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DElizabeth Warren21 endorsers

Most notable · Maura Healey · Governor of Massachusetts (2023–present)

Organizations13

Other6

Elected officials2

Federal 0State 1Local 1

RJohn Deaton0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-05

John DeatonS4MA00358 ↗

Receipts

$2.2M

Disburse

$2.2M

Cash on hand

$48.3K

Debts

$1.0M

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

RIPPLE$13.2K

WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT$13.2K

ENTREPRENEUR$8.7K

LUDLOW STREET ADVISORS LLC$6.9K

BLOCKCHAINS INC.$6.6K

Elizabeth WarrenS2MA00170 ↗

Receipts

$9.0M

Disburse

$7.9M

Cash on hand

$3.5M

Debts

Top industries

Education$23.0K

Pharma / health products$6.6K

Lawyers / law firms$6.6K

Top contributors

MIT$14.4K

MCARTHURGLEN GROUP$13.2K

ANALYSIS GROUP$13.2K

CHARLES RIVER VENTURES$12.6K

HARVARD UNIVERSITY$8.5K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$4.2M

D side

$3.2K · 0%

R side

$4.2M · 100%

Top spender

COMMONWEALTH UNITY …

For / against split

For Warren $2.0K

Against Deaton $1.2K

Against Warren $816.0K

For Deaton $3.4M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
COMMONWEALTH UNITY FUND	R	$4.2M	100%	for John Deaton
CHINESE PROGRESSIVE POLITICAL ACTION INC.	D	$1.6K	0%	for Elizabeth Warren
UNITED DEMOCRATS FUND	D	$1.2K	0%	against John Deaton
MASSACHUSETTS DEMOCRATIC STATE COMMITTEE - FED FUND	D	$322.71	0%	for Elizabeth Warren
BLUEWAVEAMERICA LLC	D	$50	0%	for Elizabeth Warren
GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION	D	$39.71	0%	for Elizabeth Warren

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Safe D9

CNalysis

Safe D

Nov 20

The Cook Political Report

Safe D

Nov 8

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill

Safe D

Jun 7

Elections Daily

Safe D

May 3

538

Safe D

Oct 22

Inside Elections

Safe D

Nov 8

RealClearPolitics

Safe D

Aug 4

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Safe D

Nov 8

Split Ticket

Safe D

Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Safe Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified10 / 10deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-05

Endorsements21 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks