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Races · Governor · 2024 · Washington
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary·primary
Governor · open seat

Bob Ferguson vs Dave Reichert

← Vermont GovernorWest Virginia Governor →
Likely DD +8.7 forecast· 18 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
93% Ferguson (D)
7% Reichert (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +8.7 · 80% CI R+3.3 → D+20.7
Actual result D+11.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 93% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.7 with an 80% CI ranging from R+3.3 (10th pctile) to D+20.7 (90th pctile), giving D a 93% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.7
80% CI: R +3.3 → D +20.7 · win prob 93%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used18
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+11.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

30354045505560FERGUSON 52.5REICHERT 40.8BIRD 38.5JUL '24SEP '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 18 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 2, 24Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned54 · 40
Oct 28, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned59 · 41
Oct 19, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned58 · 42
Oct 16, 24Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate571 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48 · 41
Oct 15, 24Strategies 360600 · RVNEUTRALD +2.53 tracked+2.8d lean51 · 41
Oct 13, 24SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA703 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned50 · 34
Oct 11, 24Cascade PBS/Elway Research+1401 · LVNEUTRAL—-5.6decoupled51 · 37
Sep 19, 24RMG Research800 · RVD-LEAND +6.68 tracked+2.6d lean48 · 40
Sep 5, 24Cascade PBS/Elway Research+1403 · RVNEUTRAL—-5.6decoupled50 · 39
Aug 29, 24Cygnal500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned48 · 45
Jul 24, 24Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate581 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy49 · 43
Jul 24, 24Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate581 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy52 · 38
Jul 16, 24DHM Research500 · RVNEUTRAL——45 · 32
May 15, 24Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate615 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48 · 42
Mar 20, 24Echelon Insights+1600 · RVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy30 · 39
Feb 13, 24Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate789 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy46 · 42
Dec 12, 23Echelon Insights+1For · Future 42500 · LVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy35 · 39
Nov 14, 23Public Policy Polling+1For · NPI's Cascadia Advocate700 · LVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy44 · 46
· 18 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
DBob Ferguson0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RDave Reichert0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSemi Bird0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D2
Likely D3
CNalysis
Safe D
Aug 16
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Aug 26
Elections Daily
Safe D
Jul 11
Inside Elections
Likely D
Aug 31
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Jun 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified17 / 18deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks