| 11/3/2024 | Research Co. | 1.01 | —(D+1.5) | 450 | — | LV | 🟡553d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
553d old Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Ferguson 54.0 · Dave Reichert 40.0 | pollarch |
| 10/29/2024 | ActiVote | 1.01 | L(D+3.9) | 400 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.9pt🟡558d old+3- 🟠
historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
558d old Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Ferguson 59.0 · Dave Reichert 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/20/2024 | ActiVote | 1.01 | L(D+3.9) | 400 | — | LV | 🟠historical bias D+3.9pt🟡567d old+3- 🟠
historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
567d old Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Ferguson 58.0 · Dave Reichert 42.0 | pollarch |
| 10/17/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 571 | — | LV | 🟡570d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
570d old Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Bob Ferguson 48.0 · Dave Reichert 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/16/2024 | Strategies 360 | 1.13 | —(D+2.5) | 600 | — | RV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡571d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
571d old Poll was fielded 571 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Bob Ferguson 51.0 · Dave Reichert 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/14/2024 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 703 | — | LV | 🟡573d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
573d old Poll was fielded 573 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Ferguson 50.0 · Dave Reichert 34.0 | pollarch |
| 10/12/2024 | Cascade PBS/Elway Research | 1.00 | — | 401 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡575d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
575d old Poll was fielded 575 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 5 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Bob Ferguson 51.0 · Dave Reichert 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/20/2024 | RMG Research | 0.60 | L(D+6.6) | 800 | — | RV | 🟡597d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+1- 🟡
597d old Poll was fielded 597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Bob Ferguson 48.0 · Dave Reichert 40.0 | pollarch |
| 9/6/2024 | Cascade PBS/Elway Research | 1.00 | — | 403 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡611d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
611d old Poll was fielded 611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 5 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Bob Ferguson 50.0 · Dave Reichert 39.0 | pollarch |
| 8/30/2024 | Cygnal | 1.04 | R(D+1.8) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡618d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
618d old Poll was fielded 618 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Bob Ferguson 48.0 · Dave Reichert 45.0 | pollarch |
| 7/25/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 581 | — | LV | 🟡654d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
654d old Poll was fielded 654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Semi Bird 10.0 · Bob Ferguson 39.0 · Mark Mullet 5.0 · Dave Reichert 28.0 | pollarch |
| 7/25/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 581 | — | LV | 🟡654d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
654d old Poll was fielded 654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Bob Ferguson 49.0 · Dave Reichert 43.0 | pollarch |
| 7/25/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 581 | — | LV | 🟡654d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
654d old Poll was fielded 654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Bob Ferguson 52.0 · Semi Bird 38.0 | pollarch |
| 7/17/2024 | DHM Research | 1.00 | — | 500 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡662d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
662d old Poll was fielded 662 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Bob Ferguson 45.0 · Dave Reichert 32.0 | pollarch |
| 7/13/2024 | SurveyUSA | 1.00 | —(D+1.5) | 564 | — | LV | 🟡666d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
666d old Poll was fielded 666 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 73 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Semi Bird 7.0 · Bob Ferguson 42.0 · Mark Mullet 4.0 · Dave Reichert 33.0 | pollarch |
| 5/23/2024 | RMG Research | 0.60 | L(D+6.6) | 800 | — | RV | 🟡717d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
717d old Poll was fielded 717 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: The Center Square Commissioned by The Center Square, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Semi Bird 4.0 · Bob Ferguson 33.0 · Mark Mullet 5.0 · Dave Reichert 31.0 | pollarch |
| 5/16/2024 | Cascade PBS/Elway Research | 1.00 | — | 403 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡724d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
724d old Poll was fielded 724 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 5 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Semi Bird 5.0 · Bob Ferguson 22.0 · Mark Mullet 6.0 · Dave Reichert 20.0 | pollarch |
| 5/16/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 615 | — | LV | 🟡724d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
724d old Poll was fielded 724 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Semi Bird 11.0 · Bob Ferguson 35.0 · Mark Mullet 4.0 · Dave Reichert 28.0 | pollarch |
| 5/16/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 615 | — | LV | 🟡724d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
724d old Poll was fielded 724 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Bob Ferguson 48.0 · Dave Reichert 42.0 | pollarch |
| 3/21/2024 | Echelon Insights | 1.00 | —(R+1.0) | 600 | — | RV | 🟡780d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
780d old Poll was fielded 780 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Semi Bird 7.0 · Bob Ferguson 23.0 · Mark Mullet 5.0 · Dave Reichert 28.0 | pollarch |
| 3/21/2024 | Echelon Insights | 1.00 | —(R+1.0) | 600 | — | RV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡780d old+2- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 69.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
780d old Poll was fielded 780 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Bob Ferguson 30.0 · Dave Reichert 39.0 | pollarch |
| 2/14/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 789 | — | LV | 🟡816d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
816d old Poll was fielded 816 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Semi Bird 9.0 · Bob Ferguson 35.0 · Mark Mullet 4.0 · Dave Reichert 27.0 | pollarch |
| 2/14/2024 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 789 | — | LV | 🟡816d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
816d old Poll was fielded 816 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Bob Ferguson 46.0 · Dave Reichert 42.0 | pollarch |
| 12/13/2023 | Echelon Insights | 1.00 | —(R+1.0) | 500 | — | RV | 🟡879d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
879d old Poll was fielded 879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Semi Bird 5.0 · Bob Ferguson 27.0 · Mark Mullet 3.0 · Dave Reichert 28.0 | pollarch |
| 12/13/2023 | Echelon Insights | 1.00 | —(R+1.0) | 500 | — | LV | 🟡879d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
879d old Poll was fielded 879 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Bob Ferguson 35.0 · Dave Reichert 39.0 | pollarch |
| 11/15/2023 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 700 | — | LV | 🟡907d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
907d old Poll was fielded 907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Semi Bird 10.0 · Bob Ferguson 31.0 · Mark Mullet 5.0 · Dave Reichert 31.0 | pollarch |
| 11/15/2023 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 700 | — | LV | 🟡907d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
907d old Poll was fielded 907 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Bob Ferguson 44.0 · Dave Reichert 46.0 | pollarch |
| 3/8/2023 | Public Policy Polling | 1.00 | —(D+1.1) | 874 | — | LV | 🟡1159d old🟡uncorrelated with editorial consensus+3- 🟡
1159d old Poll was fielded 1159 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Dow Constantine 7.0 · Bruce Dammeier 35.0 · Bob Ferguson 21.0 · Hilary Franz 7.0 | pollarch |
| 12/29/2022 | Crosscut/Elway | 1.00 | — | 403 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1228d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1228d old Poll was fielded 1228 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Jay Inslee 34.0 | pollarch |