Races · Senate · 2024 · Arizona

Senate · class I · open seat

Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake

Connecticut Senate →

Lean DD +4.6 forecast· 124 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
78% Gallego (D)
22% Lake (R)
Win probability
Ruben Gallego78% (D)
Kari Lake22% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateD +4.6
80% CIR+7.4 → D+16.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin D +4.6 · 80% CI R+7.4 → D+16.6
Actual result D+2.4 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R · model 78% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+4.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.4 (10th pctile) to D+16.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 78% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

D +4.6

80% CI: R +7.4 → D +16.6 · win prob 78%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	124
Days to election	passed
Actual result	D+2.4
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
2530354045505560GALLEGO 48.9LAKE 45.9AUG '14SEP '19NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 124 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 3, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	875 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	48 · 48
Nov 2, 24	Victory Insights	750 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.05 tracked	+1.0noisy	50 · 47
Nov 2, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,090 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	49 · 49
Nov 2, 24	Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling	801 · RV	R-LEAN	R +1.410 tracked	-3.2r lean	51 · 48
Nov 1, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	49 · 47
Nov 1, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	967 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	47 · 49
Nov 1, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	900 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 45
Nov 1, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	1,025 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	50 · 45
Oct 31, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	666 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	50 · 42
Oct 30, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	1,005 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	48 · 49
Oct 30, 24	OnMessage	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	48 · 48
Oct 30, 24	YouGov	856 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	49 · 45
Oct 30, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	54 · 46
Oct 29, 24	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	775 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	48 · 44
Oct 29, 24	Data for Progress+1For · Data for Progress	1,079 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.151 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 45
Oct 28, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	803 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	48 · 44
Oct 28, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	1,458 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	48 · 48
Oct 27, 24	Mitchell Research & Communications	610 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	50 · 46
Oct 27, 24	Data Orbital+1For · Data Orbital	550 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.210 tracked	-0.3aligned	45 · 45
Oct 26, 24	RABA Research	589 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	49 · 34
Oct 25, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,094 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	50 · 46
Oct 25, 24	CNN/SRSS	781 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.1d lean	51 · 43
Oct 21, 24	Marist College+1For · Marist College	1,193 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	53 · 45
Oct 19, 24	HighGround Public AffairsFor · Highground Inc. - Public Affairs Consultants	400 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.93 tracked	—	52 · 42
Oct 19, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	50 · 46
Oct 19, 24	University of Arizona/Truedot	846 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	51 · 36
Oct 17, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	691 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	48 · 41
Oct 16, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	1,440 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	50 · 46
Oct 15, 24	CBS News/YouGov+2For · CBS News	1,403 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.416 tracked	+1.4aligned	54 · 45
Oct 14, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	653 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	52 · 40
Oct 13, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	1,141 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	47 · 42
Oct 12, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,090 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	48 · 44
Oct 9, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	808 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	48 · 41
Oct 9, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	53 · 47
Oct 7, 24	Emerson College+1For · Since the last round of Emerson	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	50 · 43
Oct 6, 24	SoCal Strategies	735 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.9d lean	51 · 39
Oct 1, 24	RMG Research	783 · LV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	50 · 41
Oct 1, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	555 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	48 · 42
Sep 30, 24	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1	600 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	51 · 44
Sep 29, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	50 · 43
Sep 28, 24	HighGround Public AffairsFor · https://www.azfamily.com	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.93 tracked	—	51 · 41
Sep 28, 24	National Research Inc.	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	48 · 42
Sep 27, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	920 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	52 · 41
Sep 24, 24	AtlasIntel+1For · AtlasIntel	946 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	50 · 46
Sep 24, 24	BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group+1For · Cook Political Report	409 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+5.8decoupled	51 · 39
Sep 23, 24	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	764 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	55 · 42
Sep 23, 24	Suffolk University+1For · USA Today	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.221 tracked	+0.8aligned	47 · 41
Sep 23, 24	Marist College+1For · Marist College	1,264 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	54 · 44
Sep 21, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	1,030 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	47 · 45
Sep 20, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	713 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	49 · 43
Sep 18, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	789 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	46 · 41
Sep 17, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	868 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	48 · 42
Sep 17, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	862 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	53 · 39
Sep 11, 24	The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group	1,088 · LV	R-LEAN	R +3.553 tracked	-2.6r lean	47 · 43
Sep 8, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	765 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	48 · 42
Sep 7, 24	Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult	901 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	49 · 41
Sep 2, 24	YouGov	900 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	50 · 42
Aug 30, 24	InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage	800 · LV	R-LEAN	R +2.838 tracked	-0.5aligned	49 · 45
Aug 30, 24	University of Arizona/Truedot	1,155 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	47 · 36
Aug 28, 24	CNN/SRSS	682 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+2.1d lean	47 · 44
Aug 27, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	530 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	42 · 37
Aug 27, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	720 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	49 · 42
Aug 25, 24	Fox NewsFor · Fox News	1,014 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.121 tracked	+2.7d lean	56 · 41
Aug 15, 24	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	1,003 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	47 · 40
Aug 14, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	592 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	44 · 39
Aug 14, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	677 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	49 · 41
Aug 4, 24	Peak Insights+1For · National Journal	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46 · 46
Aug 4, 24	HighGround Public AffairsFor · Highground Inc. - Public Affairs Consultants	500 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.93 tracked	—	50 · 39
Aug 2, 24	Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies	567 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.35 tracked	-0.1aligned	42 · 36
Aug 1, 24	BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group+1For · Cook Political Report	435 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+5.8decoupled	51 · 42
Jul 22, 24	Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling	800 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 42
Jul 19, 24	Public Policy Polling+1	736 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	49 · 42
Jul 11, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	1,101 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	44 · 41
Jul 11, 24	YouGov	900 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	48 · 41
Jul 10, 24	Public Policy Polling+1	596 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	50 · 47
Jul 10, 24	J.L. Partners+1For · National Review	513 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	43 · 44
Jul 7, 24	Expedition Strategies+1	268 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	49 · 45
Jun 30, 24	Remington Research Group+1	638 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	47 · 47
Jun 19, 24	North Star Opinion Research	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	39 · 38
Jun 17, 24	Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	45 · 41
Jun 12, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	750 · RV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	44 · 41
Jun 3, 24	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1	600 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+0.8aligned	48 · 45
May 20, 24	Mainstreet Research/FAU+1	609 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +4.74 tracked	+0.6aligned	44 · 38
May 15, 24	CBS News/YouGov+2For · CBS News	1,214 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.416 tracked	+1.4aligned	49 · 36
May 13, 24	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	1,003 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	46 · 36
May 12, 24	BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group+1For · Cook Political Report	527 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+5.8decoupled	46 · 41
May 8, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	626 · RV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	45 · 41
Apr 28, 24	Data Orbital+1For · Data Orbital - Data expertise. Political intelligence	550 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +0.210 tracked	-0.3aligned	48 · 44
Apr 28, 24	Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	45 · 43
Apr 2, 24	The Bullfinch Group+1	600 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +6.33 tracked	+5.9d lean	41 · 41
Mar 30, 24	RABA Research	503 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	36 · 28
Mar 14, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	44 · 40
Feb 25, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	42 · 45
Feb 25, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	1,000 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	33 · 37
Feb 18, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	46 · 39
Feb 18, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	36 · 30
Feb 12, 24	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	1,002 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	47 · 37
Feb 12, 24	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	1,002 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	34 · 31
Jan 31, 24	J.L. Partners+1For · Punchbowl News	500 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	44 · 46
Jan 31, 24	J.L. Partners+1For · Punchbowl News	500 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	39 · 40
Jan 5, 24	Public Policy PollingFor · Replace Sinema PAC	590 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	45 · 46
Jan 5, 24	Public Policy PollingFor · Replace Sinema PAC	590 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	36 · 35
Dec 7, 23	VCreek/AMG	694 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	35 · 41
Nov 19, 23	Tulchin Research	800 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	39 · 34
Oct 30, 23	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	1,010 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	39 · 33
Oct 24, 23	CygnalFor · The Messenger	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.954 tracked	+1.2aligned	46 · 43
Oct 24, 23	CygnalFor · The Messenger	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.954 tracked	+1.2aligned	36 · 37
Oct 23, 23	McLaughlin & Associates+2For · Punchbowl News	— · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.04 tracked	-6.3noisy	49 · 44
Oct 23, 23	McLaughlin & Associates+2For · Punchbowl News	— · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +1.04 tracked	-6.3noisy	41 · 37
Oct 8, 23	National Research Inc.	400 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	44 · 44
Oct 8, 23	National Research Inc.	400 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	33 · 37
Oct 6, 23	Public Policy Polling+1For · The Hill	522 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	48 · 43
Oct 6, 23	Public Policy Polling+1For · The Hill	522 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	41 · 36
Jul 16, 23	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	45 · 35
Jul 16, 23	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	34 · 25
Apr 18, 23	Public Policy PollingFor · Jezebel	559 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	42 · 35
Feb 8, 23	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	43 · 33
Feb 8, 23	Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +3.04 tracked	+3.4d lean	34 · 26
Jan 22, 23	Normington Petts	800 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	50 · 45
Jan 22, 23	Normington Petts	800 · LV	D-LEAN	—	—	36 · 36
Jan 7, 23	Blueprint Polling	618 · unknown	NEUTRAL	—	+2.4d lean	32 · 36
Dec 20, 22	Public Policy Polling	650 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	48 · 47
Dec 20, 22	Public Policy Polling	678 · unknown	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	40 · 41
Aug 12, 14	WPA IntelligenceFor · The Arizona Republic	600 · LV	R-LEAN	—	-1.2aligned	48 · 46

· 124 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 60 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

60Gallego · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Ruben Gallego60 · 100%
Kari Lake0 · 0%
Total60
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

DRuben Gallego60 endorsers

Most notable · Mitzi Epstein · Arizona Senate Minority Leader (2023–2025) from the 12th district (2023–present)

Other28

Organizations19

Elected officials12

Federal 2State 6Local 3

Celebrity1

RKari Lake0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-31

Kari LakeS4AZ00220 ↗

Receipts

$26.3M

Disburse

$26.0M

Cash on hand

$218.2K

Debts

$696.5K

Top industries

Crop production$19.8K

Education$19.8K

Top contributors

ENTREPRENEUR$162.2K

ENTREPRENUER$20.3K

GV FARMS LLC$19.8K

INVESTMENTS LIMITED$19.8K

KLK INC$15.4K

Ruben GallegoS4AZ00139 ↗

Receipts

$64.7M

Disburse

$65.7M

Cash on hand

$211.2K

Debts

Top industries

Education$122.3K

Internet$50.8K

Computers / electronics$29.6K

Lawyers / law firms$23.3K

Top contributors

GOOGLE$50.8K

MOTLEY RICE LLC$39.1K

ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY$35.7K

UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA$35.6K

STANFORD UNIVERSITY$30.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$16.6M

D side

$15.3M · 92%

R side

$1.3M · 8%

Top spender

WINSENATE

For / against split

For Gallego $1.2M

Against Lake $14.0M

Against Gallego $224.0K

For Lake $1.1M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WINSENATE	D	$13.9M	84%	against Kari Lake
LCV VICTORY FUND	D	$552.3K	3%	for Ruben Gallego
SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND	R	$507.9K	3%	for Kari Lake
ESAFUND	R	$309.9K	2%	for Kari Lake
UNITED WE CAN	D	$217.8K	1%	for Ruben Gallego
WORKER POWER PAC	D	$196.2K	1%	for Ruben Gallego
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC	R	$126.5K	1%	for Kari Lake
RED SENATE	R	$106.5K	1%	for Kari Lake
VOTAR ES PODER PAC	D	$87.8K	1%	for Ruben Gallego

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Likely D3

Lean D6

CNalysis

Likely D

Oct 14

The Cook Political Report

Lean D

Sep 11

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill

Lean D

Sep 19

Elections Daily

Likely D

Oct 8

538

Likely D

Oct 22

Inside Elections

Lean D

Oct 9

RealClearPolitics

Lean D

Oct 2

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean D

Sep 5

Split Ticket

Lean D

Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

Jul 1, 2026Lean Dmodel

Jun 22, 2026Likely Dmodel

May 15, 2026Lean Dmodel

May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified123 / 124deterministic

Polls flagged1needs review

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-31

Endorsements60 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks