Races · Senate · 2024 · AZ
Senate · class II · open seat

Ruben Gallego vs Kari Lake

CT Senate →
Tilt R — · 137 polls · 0 markets Last poll 552d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 137 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R

tilt-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
|Toggle:

All polls · 137 results

137 of 137 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/4/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)875—LV
552d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 552d old
    Poll was fielded 552 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 48.0pollarch
11/3/2024Victory Insights0.55L(D+4.0)750—LV
553d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 7 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 47.0pollarch
11/3/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1090—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt553d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 49.0pollarch
11/3/2024Patriot Polling1.37R(R+1.4)801—RV
553d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias R+1.4pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.
Ruben Gallego 51.0 · Kari Lake 48.0pollarch
11/2/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt554d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 47.0pollarch
11/2/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)967—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 49.0pollarch
11/2/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)900—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
11/2/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)1025—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
11/1/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)666—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt555d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 555d old
    Poll was fielded 555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
10/31/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1005—LV
556d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 49.0pollarch
10/31/2024OnMessage1.00R800—LV
no scored polls556d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 48.0pollarch
10/31/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)856—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt556d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
10/31/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt556d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 54.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch
10/30/2024Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)775—LV
4 scored polls557d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
10/30/2024Data for Progress1.00—(D+1.0)1079—LV
557d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
10/29/2024Rasmussen Reports1.00—(R+2.1)803—LV
bias R+2.1pt558d old+3
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
10/29/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1458—LV
558d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 48.0pollarch
10/28/2024Mitchell Research & Communications1.00—610—LV
no scored polls559d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch
10/28/2024Data Orbital1.42neutral(R+0.2)550—LV
559d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.2pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 45.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
10/27/2024RABA Research1.00—589—RV
no scored polls560d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 560d old
    Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 34.0pollarch
10/26/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1094—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt561d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 561d old
    Poll was fielded 561 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch
10/26/2024CNN/SRSS1.00—781—LV
no scored polls561d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 561d old
    Poll was fielded 561 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 51.0 · Kari Lake 43.0pollarch
10/22/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1193—LV
bias D+2.4pt565d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 565d old
    Poll was fielded 565 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 53.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
10/20/2024HighGround Public Affairs0.68—(R+0.9)400—LV
3 scored polls567d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 567d old
    Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 52.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
10/20/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt567d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 567d old
    Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch
10/20/2024University of Arizona/Truedot1.00—846—RV
no scored polls567d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 567d old
    Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 51.0 · Kari Lake 36.0pollarch
10/18/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)691—LV
569d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 569d old
    Poll was fielded 569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
10/17/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1440—LV
570d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 570d old
    Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch
10/16/2024CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1403—LV
historical bias D+3.4pt571d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 571d old
    Poll was fielded 571 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CBS News
    Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 54.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
10/15/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)653—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt572d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 572d old
    Poll was fielded 572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 52.0 · Kari Lake 40.0pollarch
10/14/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)1141—LV
573d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 573d old
    Poll was fielded 573 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
10/13/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1090—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt574d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 574d old
    Poll was fielded 574 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
10/10/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)808—LV
577d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 577d old
    Poll was fielded 577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
10/10/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt577d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 577d old
    Poll was fielded 577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 53.0 · Kari Lake 47.0pollarch
10/8/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
579d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 579d old
    Poll was fielded 579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 43.0pollarch
10/7/2024SoCal Strategies1.00R735—LV
no scored polls580d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 580d old
    Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 51.0 · Kari Lake 39.0pollarch
10/2/2024RMG Research0.60L(D+6.6)783—LV
585d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 585d old
    Poll was fielded 585 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
10/2/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)555—LV
585d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 585d old
    Poll was fielded 585 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
10/1/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L600—LV
no scored polls586d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 586d old
    Poll was fielded 586 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 51.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
9/30/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt587d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 587d old
    Poll was fielded 587 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 43.0pollarch
9/29/2024HighGround Public Affairs0.68—(R+0.9)500—LV
3 scored polls588d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 51.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
9/29/2024National Research Inc.1.00R600—LV
no scored polls588d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
9/28/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)920—LV
589d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 589d old
    Poll was fielded 589 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 52.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
9/25/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)946—LV
592d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch
9/25/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L409—LV
no scored polls592d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 51.0 · Kari Lake 39.0pollarch
9/24/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)764—LV
bias D+2.6pt593d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 593d old
    Poll was fielded 593 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 55.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
9/24/2024Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500—LV
593d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 593d old
    Poll was fielded 593 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
9/24/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1264—LV
bias D+2.4pt593d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 593d old
    Poll was fielded 593 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 54.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
9/22/2024Rasmussen Reports1.00—(R+2.1)1030—LV
bias R+2.1pt595d old+3
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 595d old
    Poll was fielded 595 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
9/21/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)713—LV
596d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 596d old
    Poll was fielded 596 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 43.0pollarch
9/19/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)789—LV
598d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 46.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
9/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)868—LV
599d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
9/18/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)862—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt599d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 53.0 · Kari Lake 39.0pollarch
9/12/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1088—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt605d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 605d old
    Poll was fielded 605 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 43.0pollarch
9/9/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)765—LV
608d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 608d old
    Poll was fielded 608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
9/8/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)901—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt609d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 609d old
    Poll was fielded 609 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
9/3/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)900—RV
historical bias D+3.7pt614d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 614d old
    Poll was fielded 614 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
8/31/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt617d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 617d old
    Poll was fielded 617 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
8/31/2024University of Arizona/Truedot1.00—1155—RV
no scored polls617d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 617d old
    Poll was fielded 617 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 36.0pollarch
8/29/2024CNN/SRSS1.00—682—LV
no scored polls619d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 619d old
    Poll was fielded 619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
8/28/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)530—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 42.0 · Kari Lake 37.0pollarch
8/28/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)720—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
8/26/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)1014—RV
bias D+2.6pt622d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 622d old
    Poll was fielded 622 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 56.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
8/16/2024Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1003—RV
4 scored polls632d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 632d old
    Poll was fielded 632 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 40.0pollarch
8/15/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)592—LV
633d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 633d old
    Poll was fielded 633 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 44.0 · Kari Lake 39.0pollarch
8/15/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)677—RV
633d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 633d old
    Poll was fielded 633 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
8/5/2024Peak Insights1.00R800—LV
no scored polls643d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 643d old
    Poll was fielded 643 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: National Journal
    Commissioned by National Journal, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Ruben Gallego 46.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch
8/5/2024HighGround Public Affairs0.68—(R+0.9)500—LV
3 scored polls643d old+2
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 643d old
    Poll was fielded 643 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 39.0pollarch
8/3/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)567—LV
645d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 645d old
    Poll was fielded 645 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 42.0 · Kari Lake 36.0pollarch
8/2/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L435—LV
no scored polls646d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 646d old
    Poll was fielded 646 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 51.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
7/23/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)800—RV
656d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 656d old
    Poll was fielded 656 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 46.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
7/20/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)736—RV
659d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 659d old
    Poll was fielded 659 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 42.0pollarch
7/12/2024Rasmussen Reports1.00—(R+2.1)1101—LV
bias R+2.1pt667d old+3
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 667d old
    Poll was fielded 667 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 44.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
7/12/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)900—RV
historical bias D+3.7pt667d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 667d old
    Poll was fielded 667 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
7/11/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)596—RV
668d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 668d old
    Poll was fielded 668 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 47.0pollarch
7/11/2024J.L. Partners1.00R513—LV
no scored polls668d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 668d old
    Poll was fielded 668 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: National Review
    Commissioned by National Review, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Ruben Gallego 43.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
7/8/2024Expedition Strategies1.00L268—LV
no scored pollsn=268+4
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • n=268
    Sample size of 268 respondents implies a margin of error around ±6.0pt — wider than typical.
  • 671d old
    Poll was fielded 671 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 9 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
7/1/2024Remington Research Group0.61neutral(D+0.5)638—LV
678d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 678d old
    Poll was fielded 678 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.5pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 47.0pollarch
6/20/2024North Star Opinion Research1.00—600—LV
no scored polls689d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 689d old
    Poll was fielded 689 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 39.0 · Kari Lake 38.0pollarch
6/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
691d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 691d old
    Poll was fielded 691 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 45.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
6/13/2024Rasmussen Reports1.00—(R+2.1)750—RV
bias R+2.1pt696d old+3
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 696d old
    Poll was fielded 696 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 44.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
6/4/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L600—LV
no scored polls705d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 705d old
    Poll was fielded 705 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
5/21/2024Mainstreet Research/FAU0.85—(D+4.7)609—RV
4 scored polls719d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 719d old
    Poll was fielded 719 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 44.0 · Kari Lake 38.0pollarch
5/16/2024CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1214—RV
historical bias D+3.4pt724d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 724d old
    Poll was fielded 724 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CBS News
    Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 36.0pollarch
5/14/2024Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1003—RV
4 scored polls726d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 726d old
    Poll was fielded 726 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 46.0 · Kari Lake 36.0pollarch
5/13/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L527—LV
no scored polls727d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 727d old
    Poll was fielded 727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 46.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
5/9/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)626—RV
731d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 731d old
    Poll was fielded 731 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 45.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
4/29/2024Data Orbital1.42neutral(R+0.2)550—LV
741d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 741d old
    Poll was fielded 741 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias R+0.2pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
4/29/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
741d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 741d old
    Poll was fielded 741 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 45.0 · Kari Lake 43.0pollarch
4/3/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)600—RV
3 scored polls767d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 767d old
    Poll was fielded 767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 41.0 · Kari Lake 41.0pollarch
3/31/2024RABA Research1.00—503—RV
flagged on verificationno scored polls+2
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 64.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 770d old
    Poll was fielded 770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 36.0 · Kari Lake 28.0pollarch
3/15/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
786d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 786d old
    Poll was fielded 786 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 44.0 · Kari Lake 40.0pollarch
2/26/2024Rasmussen Reports1.00—(R+2.1)1000—LV
bias R+2.1pt804d old+3
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 804d old
    Poll was fielded 804 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 42.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
2/26/2024Rasmussen Reports1.00—(R+2.1)1000—LV
bias R+2.1pt804d old+3
  • bias R+2.1pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt.
  • 804d old
    Poll was fielded 804 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 33.0 · Kari Lake 37.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 21.0pollarch
2/19/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
811d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 811d old
    Poll was fielded 811 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 46.0 · Kari Lake 39.0pollarch
2/19/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
811d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 811d old
    Poll was fielded 811 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 36.0 · Kari Lake 30.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 21.0pollarch
2/13/2024Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1002—RV
4 scored polls817d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 817d old
    Poll was fielded 817 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 47.0 · Kari Lake 37.0pollarch
2/13/2024Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1002—RV
4 scored polls817d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 817d old
    Poll was fielded 817 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 34.0 · Kari Lake 31.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 23.0pollarch
2/1/2024J.L. Partners1.00R500—RV
no scored polls829d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 829d old
    Poll was fielded 829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Punchbowl News
    Commissioned by Punchbowl News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Ruben Gallego 44.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch
2/1/2024J.L. Partners1.00R500—RV
no scored polls829d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 829d old
    Poll was fielded 829 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Punchbowl News
    Commissioned by Punchbowl News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Ruben Gallego 39.0 · Kari Lake 40.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 13.0pollarch
1/6/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)590—unknown
855d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 855d old
    Poll was fielded 855 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 45.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch
1/6/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)590—unknown
855d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 855d old
    Poll was fielded 855 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 36.0 · Kari Lake 35.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 17.0pollarch
12/8/2023VCreek/AMG1.00R694—LV
no scored polls884d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 884d old
    Poll was fielded 884 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 35.0 · Kari Lake 41.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 16.0pollarch
11/20/2023Tulchin Research1.00L800—LV
no scored polls902d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 902d old
    Poll was fielded 902 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 141 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 39.0 · Kari Lake 34.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 17.0pollarch
10/31/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1010—RV
4 scored polls922d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 922d old
    Poll was fielded 922 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 39.0 · Kari Lake 33.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 29.0pollarch
10/31/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1010—RV
4 scored polls922d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 922d old
    Poll was fielded 922 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 36.0 · Mark Lamb 32.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 32.0pollarch
10/25/2023Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
928d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 928d old
    Poll was fielded 928 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 46.0 · Kari Lake 43.0pollarch
10/25/2023Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
928d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 928d old
    Poll was fielded 928 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Ruben Gallego 36.0 · Kari Lake 37.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 15.0pollarch
10/24/2023McLaughlin & Associates1.00———unknown
no scored polls929d old+4
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 929d old
    Poll was fielded 929 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • n unknown
    Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Punchbowl News
    Commissioned by Punchbowl News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Ruben Gallego 49.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
10/24/2023McLaughlin & Associates1.00———unknown
no scored polls929d old+4
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 929d old
    Poll was fielded 929 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • n unknown
    Pollster did not publish a sample size for this poll.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Punchbowl News
    Commissioned by Punchbowl News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Ruben Gallego 41.0 · Kari Lake 37.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 17.0pollarch
10/9/2023National Research Inc.1.00R400—LV
no scored polls944d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 944d old
    Poll was fielded 944 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 44.0 · Kari Lake 44.0pollarch
10/9/2023National Research Inc.1.00R400—LV
no scored polls944d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 944d old
    Poll was fielded 944 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 33.0 · Kari Lake 37.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 19.0pollarch
10/7/2023Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)522—unknown
946d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 946d old
    Poll was fielded 946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Hill
    Commissioned by The Hill, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 43.0pollarch
10/7/2023Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)522—unknown
946d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 946d old
    Poll was fielded 946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Hill
    Commissioned by The Hill, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 41.0 · Kari Lake 36.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 15.0pollarch
10/7/2023Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)522—unknown
946d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 946d old
    Poll was fielded 946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Hill
    Commissioned by The Hill, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 41.0 · Blake Masters 31.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 17.0pollarch
10/7/2023Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)522—unknown
946d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 946d old
    Poll was fielded 946 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The Hill
    Commissioned by The Hill, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 40.0 · Mark Lamb 31.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 16.0pollarch
8/4/2023Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1337—RV
1010d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1010d old
    Poll was fielded 1010 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 42.0 · Mark Lamb 42.0pollarch
8/4/2023Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1337—RV
1010d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1010d old
    Poll was fielded 1010 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Ruben Gallego 41.0 · Brian Wright 38.0pollarch
7/17/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1000—RV
4 scored polls1028d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1028d old
    Poll was fielded 1028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 45.0 · Kari Lake 35.0pollarch
7/17/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1000—RV
4 scored polls1028d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1028d old
    Poll was fielded 1028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 34.0 · Kari Lake 25.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 26.0pollarch
7/17/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1000—RV
4 scored polls1028d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1028d old
    Poll was fielded 1028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 44.0 · Blake Masters 36.0pollarch
7/17/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1000—RV
4 scored polls1028d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1028d old
    Poll was fielded 1028 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 40.0 · Mark Lamb 36.0pollarch
4/19/2023Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)559—unknown
1117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 1117d old
    Poll was fielded 1117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 42.0 · Kari Lake 35.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 14.0pollarch
4/19/2023Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)559—unknown
1117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 1117d old
    Poll was fielded 1117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 43.0 · Mark Lamb 33.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 15.0pollarch
4/19/2023Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)559—unknown
1117d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 1117d old
    Poll was fielded 1117 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 43.0 · Jim Lamon 27.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 16.0pollarch
2/9/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1000—RV
4 scored polls1186d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1186d old
    Poll was fielded 1186 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 43.0 · Kari Lake 33.0pollarch
2/9/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1000—RV
4 scored polls1186d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1186d old
    Poll was fielded 1186 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 34.0 · Kari Lake 26.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 19.0pollarch
2/9/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1000—RV
4 scored polls1186d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1186d old
    Poll was fielded 1186 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 38.0 · Doug Ducey 34.0pollarch
2/9/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1000—RV
4 scored polls1186d old+2
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1186d old
    Poll was fielded 1186 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 43.0 · Blake Masters 32.0pollarch
2/9/2023Noble Predictive Insights1.00—(D+3.0)1000—RV
flagged on verification4 scored polls+2
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 68.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 1186d old
    Poll was fielded 1186 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Ruben Gallego 36.0 · Karrin Taylor Robson 32.0pollarch
1/23/2023Normington Petts1.00—800—LV
no scored polls1203d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1203d old
    Poll was fielded 1203 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 45.0pollarch
1/23/2023Normington Petts1.00—800—LV
no scored polls1203d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1203d old
    Poll was fielded 1203 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 36.0 · Kari Lake 36.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 24.0pollarch
1/23/2023Normington Petts1.00—800—LV
no scored polls1203d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1203d old
    Poll was fielded 1203 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 37.0 · Doug Ducey 31.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 27.0pollarch
1/8/2023Blueprint Polling1.00L618—unknown
no scored polls1218d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 1218d old
    Poll was fielded 1218 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
Ruben Gallego 32.0 · Kari Lake 36.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 14.0pollarch
12/21/2022Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)650—unknown
1236d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 1236d old
    Poll was fielded 1236 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 47.0pollarch
12/21/2022Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)678—unknown
1236d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2
  • 1236d old
    Poll was fielded 1236 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Ruben Gallego 40.0 · Kari Lake 41.0 · Kyrsten Sinema 13.0pollarch
8/13/2014WPA Intelligence1.00R600—LV
no scored polls4288d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 4288d old
    Poll was fielded 4288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 46.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 61 total
Ruben Gallego (D)
61 endorsements · source
Elected officials (12)
  • Catherine Miranda — state senator from the 11th district (2015–2019, 2023–present) [ 26 ]
  • Corey Woods — mayor of Tempe (2020–present) [ 36 ]
  • Democratic Senate Campaign Committee — [ 25 ]
  • Eva Diaz — state senator from the 22nd district (2023–present) [ 26 ]
  • Flavio Bravo — state senator from the 26th district (2015–2019, 2023–present) [ 26 ]
  • Hillary Clinton — former U.S. Secretary of State (2009–2013) [ 22 ]
  • Kate Gallego — Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present) (candidate's ex-wife) [ 19 ]
  • Katie Hobbs — Governor of Arizona (2023–present) [ 34 ]
  • Mitzi Epstein — Arizona Senate Minority Leader (2023–2025) from the 12th district (2023–present) [ 35 ]
  • Nancy Pelosi — CA-11 (1987–present) and former Speaker of the House (2007–2011, 2019–2023) [ 32 ]
  • Regina Romero — mayor of Tucson (2019–present) [ 26 ]
  • Theresa Hatathlie — state senator from the 6th district (2023–present) [ 26 ]
Organizations / unions (19)
  • AFL-CIO — AFL-CIO [ 42 ]
  • Alliance for Retired Americans — [ 41 ]
  • Arizona Democratic Party — [ 40 ]
  • Association of Flight Attendants — [ 43 ]
  • Brady PAC — [ 48 ]
  • CHC BOLD PAC — [ 33 ]
  • Communications Workers of America — Arizona State Council [ 44 ]
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 50 ]
  • Dolores Huerta — labor leader [ 39 ]
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 52 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Teamsters — Local 104 [ 45 ]
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 55 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 57 ]
  • National Education Association — [ 46 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 59 ]
  • Population Connection Action Fund — [ 60 ]
  • Progressive Change Campaign Committee — [ 61 ]
  • United Farm Workers — [ 39 ]
  • United Mine Workers of America — [ 47 ]
Individuals / celebrities (1)
  • Mark Hamill — actor [ 38 ]
Other (29)
  • Ann Kirkpatrick — AZ-02 (2009–2011, 2013–2017, 2019–2023) [ 30 ]
  • Anna Tovar — Arizona Corporation Commissioner (2021–2025) [ 26 ]
  • Chuck Schumer — New York (1999–present) [ 25 ]
  • Climate Hawks Vote — [ 49 ]
  • Dan Goldman — NY-10 (2023–present) [ 28 ]
  • Dennis DeConcini — Arizona (1977–1995) [ 23 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 51 ]
  • Gabby Giffords — AZ-08 (2007–2012) [ 27 ]
  • Giffords — [ 27 ]
  • Harry Dunn — former U.S. Capitol Police officer [ 37 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 53 ]
  • Indivisible — [ 54 ]
  • Latino Victory — Fund [ 56 ]
  • Linda Sánchez — CA-38 (2013–present) [ 33 ]
  • Mark Kelly — Arizona (2020–present) [ 24 ]
  • People for the American Way — [ 58 ]
  • Raúl Grijalva — AZ-07 (2003–2025) [ 29 ]
  • Reproductive Freedom for All — [ 62 ]
  • Ron Barber — AZ-02 (2012–2015) [ 26 ]
  • Salt River Pima–Maricopa Indian Community — [ 68 ]
  • San Carlos Apache Tribe — [ 68 ]
  • Seth Moulton — MA-06 (2015–present) [ 31 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 63 ]
  • Stonewall Democrats of Arizona — [ 64 ]
  • Swing Left — [ 65 ]
  • UnidosUS — [ 66 ]
  • VoteVets — [ 67 ]
  • Yassamin Ansari — Phoenix city councilor (2021–2024) [ 26 ]
  • [ 26 ] — e representatives [ 26 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-31
Total IE spending
$17.7M
For candidates
$3.2M
Against candidates
$14.5M
Latest filing: 12/31/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Kari Lake (R)
$1.1M for · $14.0M against
Cash on hand
$218K
Total raised (cycle)
$26.3M
Total spent
$26.0M
Debts
$697K
Source: FEC
Ruben Gallego (D)
$1.2M for · $224K against
Cash on hand
$211K
Total raised (cycle)
$64.7M
Total spent
$65.7M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Mark Lamb (R)
$918K for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$17K
Total raised (cycle)
$2.2M
Total spent
$2.2M
Debts
$47K
Source: FEC
Kyrsten Sinema (I)
$0 for · $214K against
Cash on hand
$4.3M
Total raised (cycle)
$5.3M
Total spent
$9.3M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Blake Masters (R)
$4K for · $6K against
Cash on hand
$0
Total raised (cycle)
$3K
Total spent
$103K
Debts
$0
Source: FEC
Jim Lamon (?)
$0 for · $0 against
Cash on hand
$4K
Total raised (cycle)
$16K
Total spent
$22K
Debts
$18.4M
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

9 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Likely D Oct 15 — +9.0 —
The Cook Political Report Lean D Sep 12 — +3.5 —
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Lean D Sep 20 — +3.5 —
Elections Daily Likely D Oct 9 — +9.0 —
538 Likely D Oct 23 — +9.0 —
Inside Elections Lean D Oct 10 — +3.5 —
RealClearPolitics Lean D Oct 3 — +3.5 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D Sep 6 — +3.5 —
Split Ticket Lean D Oct 23 — +3.5 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 18 months ago (11/4/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi held 604d
  • 9/6/2024 Likely D D+6.9 via polls held 60d
  • 7/8/2024 Lean D D+4.4 via polls