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Races · Senate · 2024 · Maryland
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PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Democratic primary
Senate · class I · open seat

Angela Alsobrooks vs Larry Hogan

← Massachusetts SenateMaine Senate →
Safe DD +24.4 forecast· 33 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
99% Alsobrooks (D)
1% Hogan (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +24.4 · 80% CI D+12.4 → D+36.4
Actual result D+11.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 99% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+14) suggests Likely D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+24.4 with an 80% CI ranging from D+12.4 (10th pctile) to D+36.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +24.4
80% CI: D +12.4 → D +36.4 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used33
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+11.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

30354045505560ALSOBROOKS 51.7HOGAN 40.8TRONE 47.9NOV '23MAY '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 33 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 2, 24Concord Public Opinion Partners419 · LVD-LEAN——52 · 38
Oct 29, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult468 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned49 · 42
Oct 29, 24Chism Strategies510 · LVNEUTRAL——48 · 40
Oct 29, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned57 · 43
Oct 26, 24YouGovFor · Google Docs500 · LVD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean57 · 34
Oct 21, 24Braun Research+2For · The Washington Post1,000 · LVNEUTRAL—-18.4decoupled52 · 40
Oct 20, 24Emerson College+1For · Google Docs865 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned57 · 43
Oct 14, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult490 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned51 · 38
Sep 27, 24University of Maryland, Baltimore County863 · LVNEUTRAL——48 · 39
Sep 22, 24Braun Research+2For · The Washington Post1,012 · LVNEUTRAL—-18.4decoupled51 · 40
Sep 17, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult474 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned50 · 39
Sep 16, 24Public Policy Polling+1For · Public Policy Polling543 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy52 · 37
Sep 12, 24Emerson College+1For · Google Docs890 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 42
Sep 7, 24Morning Consult+1For · Morning Consult516 · LVD-LEAND +5.230 tracked+1.8aligned48 · 43
Aug 29, 24Gonzales Research820 · RVNEUTRAL——46 · 41
Aug 19, 24Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1700 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned46 · 46
Jun 19, 24Public Policy Polling+1For · Public Policy Polling635 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48 · 40
May 7, 24Emerson College+1For · Google Docs1,115 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 38
May 7, 24Emerson College+1For · Google Docs1,115 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 38
May 6, 24Public Policy Polling+1719 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy46 · 37
May 6, 24Public Policy Polling+1719 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy47 · 37
Apr 9, 24OpinionWorks+1For · Baltimore Sun1,292 · LVNEUTRAL——36 · 54
Apr 9, 24OpinionWorks+1For · Baltimore Sun1,292 · LVNEUTRAL——40 · 53
Mar 23, 24Goucher College800 · RVNEUTRAL——40 · 44
Mar 23, 24Goucher College800 · RVNEUTRAL——42 · 43
Mar 11, 24Braun Research+2For · The Washington Post1,004 · RVNEUTRAL—-18.4decoupled36 · 50
Mar 11, 24Braun Research+2For · The Washington Post1,004 · RVNEUTRAL—-18.4decoupled37 · 49
Feb 12, 24Emerson College+1For · Google Docs1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned37 · 44
Feb 12, 24Emerson College+1For · Google Docs1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned42 · 42
Jan 31, 24Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Punchbowl News600 · LVR-LEAN—-3.4decoupled29 · 52
Jan 31, 24Ragnar Research Partners+2For · Punchbowl News600 · LVR-LEAN—-3.4decoupled33 · 49
Nov 12, 23Victoria ResearchFor · The Banner813 · LVNEUTRAL——36 · 42
Nov 12, 23Victoria ResearchFor · The Banner813 · LVNEUTRAL——49 · 34
· 33 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 17 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
Hogan · 100%17
RLarry Hogan17 endorsers
Most notable · John Thune · Senate Minority Whip (2021–2025) from South Dakota (2005–present)
Other11
Elected officials4
Federal 2State 1Local 0
Organizations2
DAngela Alsobrooks0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DDavid Trone0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-17
Larry HoganS4MD00483 ↗
Receipts
$12.2M
Disburse
$12.1M
Cash on hand
$153.3K
Debts
$718.2K
Top industries
Securities & investment$71.1K
Govt employees$36.4K
Internet$16.5K
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$818.2K
BLACKSTONE$71.1K
STATE OF MARYLAND$36.4K
CRESTVIEW PARTNERS$19.8K
GEORGE P STAMAS$18.2K
Angela AlsobrooksS4MD00327 ↗
Receipts
$31.1M
Disburse
$31.0M
Cash on hand
$49.8K
Debts
$101.3K
Top industries
Govt employees$83.1K
Education$80.4K
Lawyers / law firms$49.8K
Computers / electronics$34.4K
Top contributors
WILMER CUTLER PICKERING HALE AND DORR$66.8K
MEDSTAR HEALTH INC$64.3K
PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY$54.4K
AKIN GUMP STRAUSS HAUER & FELD LLP$49.8K
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND$43.0K
David TroneS4MD00319 ↗
Receipts
$63.8M
Disburse
$64.0M
Cash on hand
$3.8K
Debts
$73.7M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
BREAKTHRU BEVERAGE GROUP$15.7K
EJF CAPITAL LLC$13.2K
SOUTHERN GLAZERS WINE & SPIRITS$13.2K
HSK CONSULTING$9.9K
THE REPUBLIC OF TEA$9.9K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$71.5M
D side
$51.1M · 71%
R side
$20.4M · 29%
Top spender
WINSENATE
For / against split
For Alsobrooks $7.5M
Against Hogan $43.6M
Against Alsobrooks $17.8M
For Hogan $2.6M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
WINSENATED$37.4M52%against Larry Hogan
MARYLAND'S FUTURER$17.8M25%against Angela Alsobrooks
WOMEN VOTER$9.2M13%against David Trone
BLACK PROGRESSIVE ACTION COALITIOND$3.5M5%for Angela Alsobrooks
BLACKPACD$3.2M4%for Angela Alsobrooks
OLD LINE PACR$2.3M3%for Larry Hogan
UNITY FIRST PACD$1.3M2%against Larry Hogan
SAVE WESTERN CULTURED$482.7K1%against Larry Hogan
CASA IN ACTION PACD$177.4K0%for Angela Alsobrooks
CLIMATE EMERGENCY ADVOCATESD$177.0K0%for Angela Alsobrooks

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Safe D5
Likely D3
Lean D1
CNalysis
Safe D
Nov 20
The Cook Political Report
Likely D
Jul 10
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe D
Jun 7
Elections Daily
Safe D
May 3
538
Safe D
Oct 22
Inside Elections
Likely D
May 8
RealClearPolitics
Lean D
Sep 14
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely D
Apr 16
Split Ticket
Safe D
Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 22, 2026Safe Dmodel
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified33 / 33deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-17
Endorsements17 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks