Races · Senate · 2024 · Minnesota
Senate · class I · open seat
Minnesota Senate
Where this race stands
VerifiedTossup · model 83% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+1) suggests Tossup.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+5.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.2 (10th pctile) to D+17.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 83% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +5.8
80% CI: R +6.2 → D +17.8 · win prob 83%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 25 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | Amy Klobuchar +15.7 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 25 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | AtlasIntel+2For · AtlasIntel | 2,065 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.330 tracked | -4.0r lean | 41 |
| Nov 2 | Research Co.+1For · Research Co. | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 38 |
| Oct 30 | ActiVote+1For · ActiVote | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.926 tracked | +1.0aligned | 44 |
| Oct 29 | Chism Strategies | 534 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 35 |
| Oct 27 | SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA | 728 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.194 tracked | -0.5aligned | 35 |
| Oct 21 | Embold Research+1For · MinnPost | 1,734 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 40 |
| Oct 13 | Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 544 · LV | D-LEAN | D +5.35 tracked | -0.1aligned | 35 |
| Oct 1 | Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 551 · LV | D-LEAN | D +5.35 tracked | -0.1aligned | 38 |
| Sep 25 | SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA | 646 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.194 tracked | -0.5aligned | 35 |
| Sep 18 | Redfield & Wilton StrategiesFor · Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 703 · LV | D-LEAN | D +5.35 tracked | -0.1aligned | 34 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetRRoyce White0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJoe Fraser0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-23Royce WhiteS4MN00502 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.5M
Cash on hand
$139.1K
Debts
$75
Top industries
Internet$3.1K
Internet · $3.1K
- Property Square Solutions, LLC · $3.1K
Individuals $3.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MEDTRONIC$4.0K
SYLVA CORPORATION INC$3.3K
PROPERTY SQUARE SOLUTIONS, LLC$3.1K
PROST BUILDERS$3.0K
HAVERLY SYSTEMS INC$3.0K
Joe Fraser
Receipts
$77.2K
Disburse
$58.7K
Cash on hand
$18.5K
Debts
$198.9K
Top industries
Commercial banks$1.3K
Commercial banks · $1.3K
- Wells Fargo · $1.3K
Individuals $1.3K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$1.0K
Oil & gas · $1.0K
- Beaudry Oil CO · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Govt employees$1.0K
Govt employees · $1.0K
- US Navy · $1.0K
Individuals $1.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
WINTHROP WEINSTINE$6.6K
THE HIGGS FOUNDATION$3.3K
HADAWAY PARTNERS LLC$1.3K
WELLS FARGO$1.3K
BEAUDRY OIL CO$1.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$2.6K
D side
$0 · 0%
R side
$2.6K · 100%
Top spender
REPUBLICAN PARTY OF…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REPUBLICAN PARTY OF WABASHA COUNTY party · boosts R
| R | $2.6K | 100% | for Royce White |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D9
Safe D · 9 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 20
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 8
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Aug 25
- Elections Daily · May 3
- 538 · Oct 30
- Inside Elections · Nov 8
- RealClearPolitics · Aug 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 8
- Split Ticket · Oct 29
CNalysis
Safe DThe Cook Political Report
Safe DDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe DElections Daily
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified25 / 25deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-23
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks