Races · Senate · 2024 · PA
Senate · class II · open seat

Bob Casey Jr. vs Dave McCormick

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Tilt R — · 138 polls · 0 markets Last poll 552d ago Markets 534d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 138 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R

tilt-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 138 results

138 of 138 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
11/4/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1840—LV
552d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 552d old
    Poll was fielded 552 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • n=1,840
    Sample size of 1,840 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
11/4/2024Survation1.00—929—LV
no scored polls552d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 552d old
    Poll was fielded 552 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
11/3/2024Research Co.1.01—(D+1.5)450—LV
553d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
11/3/2024Patriot Polling1.37R(R+1.4)903—RV
553d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias R+1.4pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 49.0pollarch
11/3/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1089—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt553d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 553d old
    Poll was fielded 553 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
11/2/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt554d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
11/2/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)2049—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • n=2,049
    Sample size of 2,049 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
11/2/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
11/2/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)1527—LV
554d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • n=1,527
    Sample size of 1,527 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
11/2/2024Mainstreet Research/FAU0.85—(D+4.7)699—LV
4 scored polls554d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 554d old
    Poll was fielded 554 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
11/1/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1538—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt555d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 555d old
    Poll was fielded 555 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,538
    Sample size of 1,538 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0pollarch
10/31/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1738—LV
556d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • n=1,738
    Sample size of 1,738 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
10/31/2024OnMessage1.00R800—LV
no scored polls556d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
10/31/2024Data for Progress1.00—(D+1.0)908—LV
556d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • accurate · bias D+1.0pt
    Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
10/31/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)947—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt556d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
10/31/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt556d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 556d old
    Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.5 · Dave McCormick 49.5pollarch
10/30/2024Muhlenberg College1.33—(D+1.1)460—LV
557d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
10/30/2024Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500—LV
557d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
10/30/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1400—LV
bias D+2.4pt557d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 48.0pollarch
10/30/2024Echelon Insights1.00—(R+1.0)600—LV
557d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 44.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
10/30/2024The Washington Post1.92—(D+2.1)1204—LV
4 scored polls557d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 557d old
    Poll was fielded 557 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 1.92
    Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
10/29/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1229—LV
558d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 558d old
    Poll was fielded 558 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
10/28/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)1057—LV
bias D+2.6pt559d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 48.0pollarch
10/28/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)2186—LV
559d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=2,186
    Sample size of 2,186 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
10/28/2024Monmouth University1.00—(D+5.0)824—RV
historical bias D+5.0pt559d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 45.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
10/28/2024CNN/SSRS1.00—(D+4.4)819—LV
historical bias D+4.4pt559d old+2
  • historical bias D+4.4pt
    Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
10/28/2024CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1249—LV
historical bias D+3.4pt559d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 559d old
    Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CBS News
    Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
10/27/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt560d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 560d old
    Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
10/26/2024North Star Opinion Research1.00—600—LV
no scored polls561d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 561d old
    Poll was fielded 561 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 45.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
10/23/2024UMass Lowell/YouGov0.93L(D+3.4)800—LV
564d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 564d old
    Poll was fielded 564 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
10/22/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)860—LV
565d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 565d old
    Poll was fielded 565 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
10/22/2024Susquehanna Polling & Research1.12neutral(D+0.1)500—LV
565d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 565d old
    Poll was fielded 565 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
10/20/2024Franklin & Marshall College0.91L(D+4.4)583—LV
567d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+3
  • 567d old
    Poll was fielded 567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+4.7pt vs editors
    Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • university-sponsored: Franklin & Marshall College Poll
    Commissioned by Franklin & Marshall College Poll, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 48.0pollarch
10/19/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1084—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt568d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 568d old
    Poll was fielded 568 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
10/17/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)2048—LV
570d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 570d old
    Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • n=2,048
    Sample size of 2,048 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 48.0pollarch
10/17/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)600—LV
3 scored polls570d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 570d old
    Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0pollarch
10/17/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)1043—LV
historical bias D+3.7pt570d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 570d old
    Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
10/15/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1395—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt572d old+3
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 572d old
    Poll was fielded 572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
10/10/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)857—LV
577d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 577d old
    Poll was fielded 577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
10/10/2024American Pulse Research & Polling1.00—1193—LV
no scored polls577d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 577d old
    Poll was fielded 577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
10/9/2024TIPP Insights1.00R803—LV
no scored polls578d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 578d old
    Poll was fielded 578 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0pollarch
10/9/2024UMass Lowell/YouGov0.93L(D+3.4)800—LV
578d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 578d old
    Poll was fielded 578 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
10/8/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt579d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 579d old
    Poll was fielded 579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
10/8/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
579d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 579d old
    Poll was fielded 579 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
10/7/2024Research Co.1.01—(D+1.5)450—LV
580d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 580d old
    Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+1.5pt
    Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
10/7/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1412—LV
580d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 580d old
    Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 51.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0pollarch
10/7/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt580d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 580d old
    Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 53.0 · Dave McCormick 47.0pollarch
9/29/2024OnMessage1.00R800—LV
no scored polls588d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 45.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
9/29/2024Patriot Polling1.37R(R+1.4)816—RV
588d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias R+1.4pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 51.0 · Dave McCormick 48.0pollarch
9/29/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)800—LV
3 scored polls588d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
9/29/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1090—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt588d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 588d old
    Poll was fielded 588 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
9/28/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
589d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 589d old
    Poll was fielded 589 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
9/25/2024AtlasIntel2.09neutral(D+0.3)1775—LV
592d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 2.09
    Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
  • n=1,775
    Sample size of 1,775 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • accurate · bias D+0.3pt
    Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
9/25/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L474—LV
no scored polls592d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 592d old
    Poll was fielded 592 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
9/24/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)775—LV
bias D+2.6pt593d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 593d old
    Poll was fielded 593 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 53.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
9/24/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L816—RV
no scored polls593d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 593d old
    Poll was fielded 593 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
9/22/2024Susquehanna Polling & Research1.12neutral(D+0.1)700—LV
595d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 595d old
    Poll was fielded 595 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 40.0pollarch
9/20/2024RMG Research0.60L(D+6.6)783—LV
597d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 597d old
    Poll was fielded 597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
9/20/2024Remington Research Group0.61neutral(D+0.5)800—LV
597d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 597d old
    Poll was fielded 597 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.5pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
9/19/2024Muhlenberg College1.33—(D+1.1)450—LV
598d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0pollarch
9/19/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)1086—LV
598d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
9/19/2024UMass Lowell/YouGov0.93L(D+3.4)800—LV
598d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 598d old
    Poll was fielded 598 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 38.0pollarch
9/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)880—LV
599d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
9/18/2024MassINC Polling Group1.00—800—LV
no scored polls599d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
9/18/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1756—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt599d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 599d old
    Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,756
    Sample size of 1,756 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.3pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 40.0pollarch
9/17/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1663—RV
bias D+2.4pt600d old+4
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 600d old
    Poll was fielded 600 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • n=1,663
    Sample size of 1,663 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 52.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
9/16/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1331—LV
601d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 601d old
    Poll was fielded 601 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 52.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0pollarch
9/16/2024The Washington Post1.92—(D+2.1)1003—LV
4 scored polls601d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 601d old
    Poll was fielded 601 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • weight 1.92
    Aggregation weight is 1.92 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
9/16/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)1082—RV
601d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 601d old
    Poll was fielded 601 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
9/15/2024InsiderAdvantage0.92R(R+2.6)800—LV
bias R+2.6pt602d old+3
  • bias R+2.6pt
    Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt.
  • 602d old
    Poll was fielded 602 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
9/15/2024Franklin & Marshall College0.91L(D+4.4)890—RV
602d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+3
  • 602d old
    Poll was fielded 602 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+4.7pt vs editors
    Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: Franklin & Marshall College Poll
    Commissioned by Franklin & Marshall College Poll, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 40.0pollarch
9/14/2024Suffolk University1.44neutral(D+0.1)500—LV
603d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 603d old
    Poll was fielded 603 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.1pt
    Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0pollarch
9/9/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)801—LV
608d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 608d old
    Poll was fielded 608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 44.0 · Dave McCormick 36.0pollarch
9/8/2024Morning Consult1.00—(D+5.0)1910—LV
historical bias D+5.0pt609d old+4
  • historical bias D+5.0pt
    Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 609d old
    Poll was fielded 609 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,910
    Sample size of 1,910 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 40.0pollarch
9/6/2024co/efficient0.71R(R+5.4)889—LV
historical bias R+5.4pt611d old+3
  • historical bias R+5.4pt
    Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 611d old
    Poll was fielded 611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • R+4.4pt vs editors
    Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 45.0 · Dave McCormick 36.0pollarch
9/6/2024CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1076—LV
historical bias D+3.4pt611d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 611d old
    Poll was fielded 611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CBS News
    Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
9/3/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)1000—RV
historical bias D+3.7pt614d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 614d old
    Poll was fielded 614 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 52.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
8/30/2024The Trafalgar Group0.89R(R+3.4)1082—LV
historical bias R+3.4pt618d old+2
  • historical bias R+3.4pt
    Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 618d old
    Poll was fielded 618 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
8/29/2024CNN/SRSS1.00—789—LV
no scored polls619d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 619d old
    Poll was fielded 619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CNN
    Commissioned by CNN, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
8/28/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)1071—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 44.0 · Dave McCormick 38.0pollarch
8/28/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)950—LV
620d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 620d old
    Poll was fielded 620 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
8/23/2024SoCal Strategies1.00R713—LV
no scored polls625d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 625d old
    Poll was fielded 625 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
8/23/2024ActiVote1.01L(D+3.9)400—LV
historical bias D+3.9pt625d old+3
  • historical bias D+3.9pt
    Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 625d old
    Poll was fielded 625 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 55.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
8/21/2024Fabrizio Ward1.00—400—LV
no scored polls627d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 627d old
    Poll was fielded 627 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0pollarch
8/15/2024Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)800—LV
633d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 633d old
    Poll was fielded 633 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
8/15/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)825—LV
633d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 633d old
    Poll was fielded 633 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 44.0 · Dave McCormick 36.0pollarch
8/14/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—LV
634d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 634d old
    Poll was fielded 634 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
8/12/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1738—LV
636d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 636d old
    Poll was fielded 636 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • n=1,738
    Sample size of 1,738 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 52.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
8/11/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)500—RV
3 scored polls637d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 637d old
    Poll was fielded 637 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 51.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
8/11/2024Franklin & Marshall College0.91L(D+4.4)920—RV
637d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+2
  • 637d old
    Poll was fielded 637 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+4.7pt vs editors
    Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 36.0pollarch
8/9/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)693—RV
639d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 639d old
    Poll was fielded 639 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 36.0pollarch
8/3/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)743—LV
645d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 645d old
    Poll was fielded 645 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 45.0 · Dave McCormick 40.0pollarch
8/2/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L411—LV
no scored polls646d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 646d old
    Poll was fielded 646 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 53.0 · Dave McCormick 40.0pollarch
7/28/2024Susquehanna Polling & Research1.12neutral(D+0.1)600—LV
651d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 651d old
    Poll was fielded 651 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
7/24/2024Fox News1.00—(D+2.6)1034—RV
bias D+2.6pt655d old+2
  • bias D+2.6pt
    Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt.
  • 655d old
    Poll was fielded 655 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 55.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
7/24/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)851—LV
655d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 655d old
    Poll was fielded 655 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
7/23/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)850—RV
656d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 656d old
    Poll was fielded 656 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
7/21/2024SoCal Strategies1.00R500—LV
no scored polls658d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 658d old
    Poll was fielded 658 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 40.0pollarch
7/18/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)624—RV
661d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+4
  • 661d old
    Poll was fielded 661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Politico
    Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
7/18/2024Redfield & Wilton Strategies1.00—(D+5.3)688—LV
661d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 661d old
    Poll was fielded 661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 48 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 44.0 · Dave McCormick 37.0pollarch
7/12/2024Public Policy Polling1.00—(D+1.1)537—RV
667d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3
  • 667d old
    Poll was fielded 667 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • bias D+1.1pt
    Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
7/12/2024YouGov1.00—(D+3.7)1000—RV
historical bias D+3.7pt667d old+2
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 667d old
    Poll was fielded 667 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 38.0pollarch
7/11/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)872—RV
668d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 668d old
    Poll was fielded 668 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
7/8/2024Expedition Strategies1.00L284—LV
no scored pollsn=284+4
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • n=284
    Sample size of 284 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.8pt — wider than typical.
  • 671d old
    Poll was fielded 671 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 9 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0pollarch
7/1/2024Remington Research Group0.61neutral(D+0.5)673—LV
678d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 678d old
    Poll was fielded 678 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • bias D+0.5pt
    Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 48.0pollarch
6/28/2024Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)800—LV
681d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 681d old
    Poll was fielded 681 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
6/19/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)800—RV
3 scored polls690d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 690d old
    Poll was fielded 690 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 36.0pollarch
6/18/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
691d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 691d old
    Poll was fielded 691 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
6/6/2024Marist College1.00—(D+2.4)1181—RV
bias D+2.4pt703d old+3
  • bias D+2.4pt
    Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt.
  • 703d old
    Poll was fielded 703 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 52.0 · Dave McCormick 46.0pollarch
5/31/2024Mainstreet Research/FAU0.85—(D+4.7)1012—RV
4 scored polls709d old+3
  • 4 scored polls
    Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 709d old
    Poll was fielded 709 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 40.0pollarch
5/19/2024KAConsulting1.08R(R+3.6)600—RV
721d old✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • 721d old
    Poll was fielded 721 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 37.0pollarch
5/13/2024BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group1.00L730—LV
no scored polls727d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 727d old
    Poll was fielded 727 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 8 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
5/9/2024New York Times/Siena College0.98L(D+4.1)1023—RV
731d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 731d old
    Poll was fielded 731 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times
    Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
4/30/2024Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research1.00L1398—LV
no scored polls740d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 740d old
    Poll was fielded 740 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
4/29/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
741d old✓ verified 5d ago+4
  • 741d old
    Poll was fielded 741 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling
    Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
4/25/2024CBS News/YouGov0.92L(D+3.4)1306—LV
historical bias D+3.4pt745d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.4pt
    Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 745d old
    Poll was fielded 745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • TV-network-sponsored: CBS News
    Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
4/25/2024Muhlenberg College1.33—(D+1.1)417—RV
745d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 745d old
    Poll was fielded 745 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 45.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
4/3/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)600—RV
3 scored polls767d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 767d old
    Poll was fielded 767 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 45.0 · Dave McCormick 38.0pollarch
3/31/2024Franklin & Marshall College0.91L(D+4.4)431—RV
770d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+3
  • 770d old
    Poll was fielded 770 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+4.7pt vs editors
    Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: Franklin & Marshall College Poll
    Commissioned by Franklin & Marshall College Poll, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
3/26/2024The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)800—RV
3 scored polls775d old+3
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 775d old
    Poll was fielded 775 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 30.0pollarch
3/13/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
788d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 788d old
    Poll was fielded 788 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 52.0 · Dave McCormick 48.0pollarch
3/7/2024Susquehanna Polling & Research1.12neutral(D+0.1)450—LV
794d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 794d old
    Poll was fielded 794 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
2/16/2024Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)1000—RV
814d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 814d old
    Poll was fielded 814 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
2/8/2024Chism Strategies1.00—500—RV
no scored polls822d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 822d old
    Poll was fielded 822 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 38.0 · Dave McCormick 37.0pollarch
1/28/2024Franklin & Marshall College0.91L(D+4.4)1006—RV
833d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+2
  • 833d old
    Poll was fielded 833 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+4.7pt vs editors
    Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 35.0pollarch
1/25/2024Public Opinion Strategies *1.00—800—LV
no scored polls836d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 836d old
    Poll was fielded 836 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Dave McCormick 40.0pollarch
1/21/2024Susquehanna Polling & Research1.12neutral(D+0.1)745—LV
840d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 840d old
    Poll was fielded 840 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 42.0pollarch
1/8/2024Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1680—RV
853d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 853d old
    Poll was fielded 853 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • n=1,680
    Sample size of 1,680 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 53.0 · Dave McCormick 43.0pollarch
12/12/2023The Bullfinch Group0.63—(D+6.3)800—RV
flagged on verification3 scored polls+3
  • flagged on verification
    Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 69.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row.
  • 3 scored polls
    Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates.
  • 880d old
    Poll was fielded 880 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+6.6pt vs editors
    Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Bob Casey Jr. 42.0 · Dave McCormick 27.0pollarch
12/7/2023Change Research0.61L(D+3.7)2532—RV
historical bias D+3.7pt885d old+4
  • historical bias D+3.7pt
    Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect.
  • 885d old
    Poll was fielded 885 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • n=2,532
    Sample size of 2,532 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
Bob Casey Jr. 44.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
10/22/2023Franklin & Marshall College0.91L(D+4.4)873—RV
931d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+3
  • 931d old
    Poll was fielded 931 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+4.7pt vs editors
    Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: Franklin & Marshall College Poll
    Commissioned by Franklin & Marshall College Poll, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 39.0pollarch
10/4/2023Emerson College1.00—(D+0.7)430—RV
949d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 949d old
    Poll was fielded 949 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Bob Casey Jr. 41.0 · Dave McCormick 33.0pollarch
10/2/2023Quinnipiac University1.00—(D+1.9)1725—RV
951d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 951d old
    Poll was fielded 951 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • n=1,725
    Sample size of 1,725 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0pollarch
5/8/2023Susquehanna Polling & Research1.12neutral(D+0.1)700—LV
1098d old✓ verified 5d ago+2
  • 1098d old
    Poll was fielded 1098 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: RealClearPolitics
    Commissioned by RealClearPolitics, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 53.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
4/13/2023Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
1123d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1123d old
    Poll was fielded 1123 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Politico
    Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 46.0 · Dave McCormick 41.0pollarch
4/13/2023Cygnal1.04R(D+1.8)600—LV
1123d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 1123d old
    Poll was fielded 1123 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Politico
    Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
Bob Casey Jr. 49.0 · Doug Mastriano 39.0pollarch
4/7/2023Franklin & Marshall College0.91L(D+4.4)643—RV
1129d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+3
  • 1129d old
    Poll was fielded 1129 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+4.7pt vs editors
    Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: Franklin & Marshall College Poll
    Commissioned by Franklin & Marshall College Poll, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 42.0 · Dave McCormick 35.0pollarch
4/7/2023Franklin & Marshall College0.91L(D+4.4)643—RV
1129d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+3
  • 1129d old
    Poll was fielded 1129 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • D+4.7pt vs editors
    Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: Franklin & Marshall College Poll
    Commissioned by Franklin & Marshall College Poll, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Bob Casey Jr. 47.0 · Doug Mastriano 31.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 40 total
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
40 endorsements · source
Elected officials (6)
  • Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez — labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present) [ 25 ]
  • Gretchen Whitmer — Governor of Michigan (2019-present) [ 23 ]
  • John Fetterman — U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2023–present) [ 21 ]
  • Josh Shapiro — Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present) [ 21 ]
  • Mark Kelly — U.S. senator from Arizona (2020–present) [ 22 ]
  • Patrick Murphy — Acting Secretary of the Army (2016), former U.S. representative for PA-8 (2007–2011) [ 20 ]
Newspapers (1)
  • Philadelphia Gay News — [ 53 ]
Organizations / unions (18)
  • AFSCME — Council 13 [ 47 ]
  • Actors' Equity Association — [ 46 ]
  • American Israel Public Affairs Committee — (AIPAC) [ 27 ]
  • Association of Flight Attendants — [ 48 ]
  • Council for a Livable World — [ 29 ]
  • Feminist Majority PAC — [ 32 ]
  • Humane Society Legislative Fund — [ 36 ]
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 37 ]
  • Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs — [ 38 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 39 ]
  • National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare — [ 40 ]
  • National Education Association — [ 49 ]
  • Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 41 ]
  • NextGen America — PAC [ 25 ]
  • Pennsylvania AFL–CIO — [ 50 ]
  • Pennsylvania Democratic Party — [ 26 ]
  • Pennsylvania State Education Association — [ 43 ]
  • United Mine Workers of America — [ 51 ]
Other (15)
  • CASA in Action — [ 28 ]
  • Chris Carney — PA-10 (2007–2011) [ 20 ]
  • Chris Deluzio — PA-17 (2023–present) [ 21 ]
  • Chrissy Houlahan — PA-6 (2019–present) [ 20 ]
  • Conor Lamb — PA-17 (2018–2023) [ 20 ]
  • Democratic Majority for Israel — [ 30 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 31 ]
  • Giffords — [ 33 ]
  • Harry Dunn — former U.S. Capitol Police officer [ 24 ]
  • Harvard — College Democrats [ 34 ]
  • Human Rights Campaign — [ 35 ]
  • Peace Action — [ 42 ]
  • People for the American Way — [ 44 ]
  • Swing Left — [ 45 ]
  • United Steelworkers — [ 52 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-30
Total IE spending
$72.7M
For candidates
$19.1M
Against candidates
$53.6M
Latest filing: 12/30/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E
Dave McCormick (R)
$15.1M for · $48.6M against
Cash on hand
$605K
Total raised (cycle)
$36.0M
Total spent
$35.4M
Debts
$20.5M
Source: FEC
Bob Casey Jr. (D)
$4.0M for · $5.0M against
Cash on hand
$995K
Total raised (cycle)
$58.1M
Total spent
$60.2M
Debts
$0
Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

9 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
CNalysis Lean D Nov 21 — +3.5 —
The Cook Political Report Tossup Oct 21 — 0.0 —
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill Tossup Jun 8 — 0.0 —
Elections Daily Lean D Oct 24 — +3.5 —
538 Lean D Oct 28 — +3.5 —
Inside Elections Tilt D Nov 9 — +1.3 —
RealClearPolitics Tossup Aug 5 — 0.0 —
Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean D Jun 13 — +3.5 —
Split Ticket Lean D Oct 23 — +3.5 —

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 18 months ago (11/4/2024) last market quote 18 months ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (3 changes)
  • 5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi held 565d
  • 10/15/2024 Lean D D+4.2 via polls held 99d
  • 7/8/2024 Likely D D+6.0 via polls