Races · Senate · 2024 · Pennsylvania
Senate · class I · open seat
Bob Casey Jr. vs Dave McCormick
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 66% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+2.5 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.5 (10th pctile) to D+14.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 66% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +2.5
80% CI: R +9.5 → D +14.5 · win prob 66%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 136 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+0.2 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 136 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 24 | AtlasIntel+2For · AtlasIntel | 1,840 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.330 tracked | -4.0r lean | 49 · 47 |
| Nov 3, 24 | SurvationFor · Survation | 929 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 49 · 42 |
| Nov 2, 24 | Research Co.+1For · Research Co. | 450 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +1.450 tracked | -0.7aligned | 48 · 46 |
| Nov 2, 24 | Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling | 903 · RV | R-LEAN | R +1.410 tracked | -3.2r lean | 50 · 49 |
| Nov 2, 24 | The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group | 1,089 · LV | R-LEAN | R +3.553 tracked | -2.6r lean | 46 · 47 |
| Nov 1, 24 | InsiderAdvantage+1For · InsiderAdvantage | 800 · LV | R-LEAN | R +2.838 tracked | -0.5aligned | 48 · 47 |
| Nov 1, 24 | AtlasIntel+2For · AtlasIntel | 2,049 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.330 tracked | -4.0r lean | 49 · 47 |
| Nov 1, 24 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 1,000 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 47 · 47 |
| Nov 1, 24 | New York Times/Siena College+2For · The New York Times | 1,527 · LV | D-LEAN | D +4.16 tracked | +2.0aligned | 50 · 45 |
| Nov 1, 24 | Mainstreet Research/FAU+1 | 699 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +4.74 tracked | +0.6aligned | 49 · 44 |
Endorsements · 40 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet40
Endorsements tracked
Bob Casey Jr.40 · 100%
Dave McCormick0 · 0%
Total40
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DBob Casey Jr.40 endorsers
Most notable · Gretchen Whitmer · Governor of Michigan (2019-present)
Organizations18
Organizations · 18
- AFSCME · Council 13
- Actors' Equity Association
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee · (AIPAC)
- Association of Flight Attendants
- Council for a Livable World
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Humane Society Legislative Fund
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
- National Education Association
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- NextGen America · PAC
- Pennsylvania AFL–CIO
- Pennsylvania Democratic Party
- Pennsylvania State Education Association
- United Mine Workers of America
Other15
Other · 15
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Chrissy Houlahan · PA-6 (2019–present)
- CASA in Action
- Chris Carney · PA-10 (2007–2011)
- Conor Lamb · PA-17 (2018–2023)
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Harry Dunn · former U.S. Capitol Police officer
- Harvard · College Democrats
- Human Rights Campaign
- Peace Action
- People for the American Way
- Swing Left
- United Steelworkers
Elected officials6
Federal 4State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Gretchen Whitmer · Governor of Michigan (2019-present)
- Josh Shapiro · Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- John Fetterman · U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (2023–present)
- Mark Kelly · U.S. senator from Arizona (2020–present)
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez · labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)
- Patrick Murphy · Acting Secretary of the Army (2016), former U.S. representative for PA-8 (2007–2011)
Newspapers1
Newspapers · 1
- Philadelphia Gay News
RDave McCormick0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-30Dave McCormickS2PA00661 ↗
Receipts
$36.0M
Disburse
$35.4M
Cash on hand
$605.5K
Debts
$20.5M
Top industries
Securities & investment$411.1K
Securities & investment · $411.1K
- Goldman Sachs · $335.3K
- Blackstone · $43.2K
- Goldman Sachs CO. · $32.6K
Individuals $411.1K · PACs $0
Top contributors
INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$357.9K
GOLDMAN SACHS$335.3K
ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT$59.5K
ENTREPRENEUR$45.9K
BLACKSTONE$43.2K
Bob Casey Jr.S6PA00217 ↗
Receipts
$58.1M
Disburse
$60.2M
Cash on hand
$995.0K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$269.0K
Education · $269.0K
- University of Pennsylvania · $127.3K
- University of Pittsburgh · $86.7K
- University of California · $54.9K
Individuals $269.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$227.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $227.0K
- Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP · $92.4K
- Ross Feller Casey, LLP · $91.5K
- Blank Rome, LLP · $43.1K
Individuals $227.0K · PACs $0
Internet$65.5K
Internet · $65.5K
- Google, INC. · $65.5K
Individuals $65.5K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$58.5K
Securities & investment · $58.5K
- Blackstone · $58.5K
Individuals $58.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA$127.3K
KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK, LLP$92.4K
ROSS FELLER CASEY, LLP$91.5K
UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH$86.7K
GOOGLE, INC.$65.5K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$72.7M
D side
$52.6M · 72%
R side
$20.1M · 28%
Top spender
WINSENATE
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WINSENATE super pac · boosts D
| D | $42.5M | 58% | against Dave McCormick |
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $15.8M | 22% | for Dave McCormick |
| DEFEND OUR CONSTITUTION PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $4.7M | 6% | against Dave McCormick |
| FOR OUR FUTURE super pac · boosts D
| D | $2.2M | 3% | for Bob Casey Jr. |
| KEYSTONE RENEWAL PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2M | 2% | for Dave McCormick |
| COMMON SENSE FOR AMERICA PAC pac · boosts R
| R | $975.2K | 1% | for Dave McCormick |
| LCV VICTORY FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $612.2K | 1% | for Bob Casey Jr. |
| WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $590.6K | 1% | for Bob Casey Jr. |
| CASA IN ACTION PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $350.2K | 0% | for Bob Casey Jr. |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean D5
Lean D · 5 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 20
- Elections Daily · Oct 23
- 538 · Oct 27
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 12
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
Tilt D1
Tilt D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Nov 8
Tossup3
Tossup · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Oct 20
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Jun 7
- RealClearPolitics · Aug 4
CNalysis
Lean DThe Cook Political Report
TossupDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
TossupElections Daily
Lean D538
Lean DInside Elections
Tilt DRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DSplit Ticket
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified135 / 136deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-30
Endorsements40 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks