Races · Senate · 2024 · Rhode Island
Senate · class I · open seat
Sheldon Whitehouse vs Patricia Morgan
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 99% D
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+8) suggests Likely D.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+19.6 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.6 (10th pctile) to D+31.6 (90th pctile), giving D a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +19.6
80% CI: D +7.6 → D +31.6 · win prob 99%
R+45R+23TIEDD+23D+45
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | D+20.1 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 708 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 54 · 40 |
| Sep 19 | Embold Research | 876 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 52 · 36 |
| Sep 17 | MassINC Polling GroupFor · Rhode Island Current | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | -1.3aligned | 52 · 37 |
| Sep 15 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 683 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 51 · 33 |
| Sep 7 | University of Rhode Island | 500 · A | NEUTRAL | — | — | 52 · 24 |
| Jun 13 | Embold Research | 1,405 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 |
Endorsements · 13 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet13
Endorsements tracked
Sheldon Whitehouse13 · 100%
Patricia Morgan0 · 0%
Total13
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DSheldon Whitehouse13 endorsers
Most notable · Gabby Giffords · U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)
Organizations10
Organizations · 10
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee · (AIPAC)
- Council for a Livable World
- Feminist Majority PAC
- Humane Society Legislative Fund
- J Street PAC
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- League of Conservation Voters
- Natural Resources Defense Council
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Population Connection Action Fund
Other2
Other · 2
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Gabby Giffords · U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012)
RPatricia Morgan0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-11-08Patricia MorganS4RI00085 ↗
Receipts
$296.2K
Disburse
$296.5K
Cash on hand
$0
Debts
$41.6K
Top industries
Education$4.9K
Education · $4.9K
- University of Rhode Island · $4.9K
Individuals $4.9K · PACs $0
Real estate$2.0K
Real estate · $2.0K
- Acorn Realty · $2.0K
Individuals $2.0K · PACs $0
Health professionals$2.0K
Health professionals · $2.0K
- Zhang Medical Associates · $2.0K
Individuals $2.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
NATIONAL REFRIGERATION INC$6.2K
UNIVERSITY OF RHODE ISLAND$4.9K
CASH$3.7K
INTERACTIVE BROKER GROUP$3.3K
INTERACTIVE BROKERS$3.3K
Sheldon WhitehouseS6RI00221 ↗
Receipts
$4.9M
Disburse
$4.9M
Cash on hand
$1.3M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$74.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $74.3K
- Cotchett, Pitre & Mccarthy, LLP · $43.8K
- Clifford Law Offices · $16.1K
- Cotchett Pitre & Mccarthy LLP · $14.4K
Individuals $74.3K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$13.2K
Securities & investment · $13.2K
- Jane Street Capital · $13.2K
Individuals $13.2K · PACs $0
Education$10.8K
Education · $10.8K
- Brown University · $10.8K
Individuals $10.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
COTCHETT, PITRE & MCCARTHY, LLP$43.8K
CLIFFORD LAW OFFICES$16.1K
CHISHOLM CHISHOLM & KILPATRICK$14.7K
COTCHETT PITRE & MCCARTHY LLP$14.4K
KOREIN TILLERY$13.2K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$727.6K
D side
$346.2 · 0%
R side
$727.3K · 100%
Top spender
ROOSEVELT SOCIETY A…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROOSEVELT SOCIETY ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $727.3K | 100% | for Patricia Morgan |
| ENVIRONMENT AMERICA ACTION FUND super pac · boosts D
| D | $336.2 | 0% | for Sheldon Whitehouse |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $10 | 0% | for Sheldon Whitehouse |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D9
Safe D · 9 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 20
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 8
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Jun 7
- Elections Daily · May 3
- 538 · Oct 22
- Inside Elections · Nov 8
- RealClearPolitics · Aug 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 8
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
CNalysis
Safe DThe Cook Political Report
Safe DDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe DElections Daily
Safe D538
Safe DInside Elections
Safe DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified6 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-11-08
Endorsements13 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks