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Races · Governor · 2024 · Indiana
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Governor · open seat

Jennifer McCormick vs Mike Braun

← Delaware GovernorMissouri Governor →
Likely RR +13.6 forecast· 7 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
1% McCormick (D)
99% Braun (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin R +13.6 · 80% CI R+25.6 → R+1.6
Actual result Mike Braun Micah Beckwith +13.3 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Likely R · model 99% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+9) suggests Likely R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+25.6 (10th pctile) to R+1.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.6
80% CI: R +25.6 → R +1.6 · win prob 1%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used7
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultMike Braun Micah Beckwith +13.3
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

51015202530354045505560BRAUN 52.8MCCORMICK 40.8RAINWATER 7.9SEP '24SEP '24OCT '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 7 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 27, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned44 · 56
Oct 4, 24ActiVote+1For · ActiVote400 · LVD-LEAND +3.926 tracked+1.0aligned46 · 54
Sep 24, 24ARW StrategiesFor · IndyPolitics.Org600 · LVNEUTRAL——37 · 44
Sep 21, 24GBAO+1600 · LVD-LEAN—+9.3d lean41 · 44
Sep 12, 24Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned34 · 45
Sep 1, 24Lake Research Partners+1For · nwitimes.com600 · LVNEUTRAL—+17.7noisy39 · 41
Aug 15, 23Public Policy Polling+2For · Axios663 · RVNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy35 · 46

Endorsements · 12 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
12McCormick · 100%
DJennifer McCormick12 endorsers
Most notable · Terry Goodin · former Indiana director for USDA Rural Development and former Minority Leader of the Indiana House of Representatives (2017–2018) from the 66th district (2000–2020)
Organizations6
Elected officials4
Federal 0State 3Local 1
Celebrity1
Other1
RMike Braun0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LDonald Rainwater0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely R4
Safe R1
CNalysis
Likely R
Oct 31
The Cook Political Report
Likely R
Oct 14
Elections Daily
Safe R
Jul 11
Inside Elections
Likely R
Sep 25
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Likely R
Oct 3

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified7 / 7deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements12 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks