Pollster · 153 of 1769
New York Times/Siena College
Polls scored
9
Mean error
4.1 pt
Signed bias
D+3.89
Aggregation weight
0.98
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components78
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 24 graded races, New York Times/Siena College's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +2.0pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+2.0pp
Median delta
+1.5pp
Std-dev
4.2pp
N graded
24
Recent activity
Total all time
29
Last 30d
1
Last 90d
1
Last 180d
1
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | #15 / 26 | 6 | 4.08 pt | D+4.08 pp |
Recent polls
- 6/26/2026Texas · Senate · 2026Ken Paxton 47.0 · James Talarico 47.0
- 11/1/2024North Carolina · Governor · 2024Josh Stein 56.0 · Mark Robinson 38.0
- 11/1/2024Arizona · Senate · 2024Ruben Gallego 50.0 · Kari Lake 45.0
- 11/1/2024Michigan · Senate · 2024Elissa Slotkin 48.0 · Mike Rogers 46.0
- 11/1/2024Nevada · Senate · 2024Jacky Rosen 52.0 · Sam Brown 43.0
- 11/1/2024Pennsylvania · Senate · 2024Bob Casey Jr. 50.0 · Dave McCormick 45.0
- 11/1/2024Wisconsin · Senate · 2024Tammy Baldwin 50.0 · Eric Hovde 46.0
- 10/25/2024Texas · Senate · 2024Ted Cruz 50.0 · Colin Allred 46.0
- 10/9/2024Arizona · Senate · 2024Ruben Gallego 48.0 · Kari Lake 41.0
- 10/9/2024Pennsylvania · Senate · 2024Bob Casey Jr. 48.0 · Dave McCormick 44.0