Pollster · 222 of 1053

New York Times/Siena College

GRADE B+ D-LEAN
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Polls scored
28
Mean error
4.1 pt
Signed bias
D+4.08
Aggregation weight
0.98
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components
80
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight 49
Verification rate 100
Sample size median 82
Citation rate 100
Outlier rate (inv.) 100
Rater alignment 86
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 23 graded races, New York Times/Siena College's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.9pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
+1.9pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
4.3pp
N graded
23
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2024-ncus-governor-2024-ncus-senate-2024-az
Recent activity
Total all time
28
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0

Last poll 11/2/2024 (553d ago) · status dormant

Per-cycle debrief appearances
Cycle Rank Polls MAE Signed bias
2024 #15 / 26 6 4.08 pt D+4.08 pp
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