Races · Senate · 2024 · TX

Senate · class II · open seat

Colin Allred vs Ted Cruz

← TN Senate UT Senate →

Lean R — · 55 polls · 0 markets Last poll 552d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 55 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R

lean-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 55 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:55 of 55 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/4/2024	AtlasIntel	2.09	neutral(D+0.3)	2434	—	LV	552d old✓ verified 5d ago+4 552d old Poll was fielded 552 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 2.09 Aggregation weight is 2.09 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. n=2,434 Sample size of 2,434 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. accurate · bias D+0.3pt Across 30 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.3pt — within ±1pt.	Ted Cruz 53.0 · Colin Allred 46.0	poll arch
10/31/2024	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	2120	—	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt556d old+4 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 556d old Poll was fielded 556 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=2,120 Sample size of 2,120 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 44.0	poll arch
10/28/2024	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	600	—	LV	559d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 559d old Poll was fielded 559 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Tampa Free Press Commissioned by Tampa Free Press, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 49.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
10/27/2024	ActiVote	1.01	L(D+3.9)	400	—	LV	historical bias D+3.9pt560d old+3 historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. 560d old Poll was fielded 560 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 52.0 · Colin Allred 48.0	poll arch
10/26/2024	New York Times/Siena College	0.98	L(D+4.1)	1180	—	LV	561d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 561d old Poll was fielded 561 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 50.0 · Colin Allred 46.0	poll arch
10/25/2024	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	1002	—	LV	bias R+2.1pt562d old+3 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 562d old Poll was fielded 562 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 43.0	poll arch
10/23/2024	GBAO	1.00	L	800	—	LV	no scored polls564d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 564d old Poll was fielded 564 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 5 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Ted Cruz 46.0 · Colin Allred 46.0	poll arch
10/21/2024	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	815	—	LV	566d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 566d old Poll was fielded 566 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Ted Cruz 48.0 · Colin Allred 47.0	poll arch
10/21/2024	UT Tyler	1.00	—	956	—	LV	no scored polls566d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 566d old Poll was fielded 566 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+9.4pt vs editors Across 6 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 9.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
10/17/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1108	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt570d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 570d old Poll was fielded 570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 49.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
10/16/2024	ActiVote	1.01	L(D+3.9)	400	—	LV	historical bias D+3.9pt571d old+3 historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. 571d old Poll was fielded 571 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 53.0 · Colin Allred 47.0	poll arch
10/15/2024	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	2048	—	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt572d old+4 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 572d old Poll was fielded 572 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=2,048 Sample size of 2,048 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 46.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
10/10/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1091	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt577d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 577d old Poll was fielded 577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 51.0 · Colin Allred 44.0	poll arch
10/10/2024	University of Houston	1.00	—	1329	—	LV	no scored polls577d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 577d old Poll was fielded 577 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 50.0 · Colin Allred 46.0	poll arch
10/7/2024	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1186	—	LV	bias D+2.4pt580d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 580d old Poll was fielded 580 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 51.0 · Colin Allred 46.0	poll arch
10/6/2024	Mainstreet Research/FAU	0.85	—(D+4.7)	811	—	RV	4 scored polls581d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 581d old Poll was fielded 581 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 10 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 46.0 · Colin Allred 43.0	poll arch
10/4/2024	New York Times/Siena College	0.98	L(D+4.1)	617	—	LV	583d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 583d old Poll was fielded 583 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: The New York Times Commissioned by The New York Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 48.0 · Colin Allred 44.0	poll arch
9/30/2024	ActiVote	1.01	L(D+3.9)	400	—	LV	historical bias D+3.9pt587d old+3 historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. 587d old Poll was fielded 587 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 52.0 · Colin Allred 48.0	poll arch
9/27/2024	RMG Research	0.60	L(D+6.6)	779	—	LV	590d old✓ verified 5d ago+1 590d old Poll was fielded 590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 48.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
9/26/2024	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	759	—	RV	591d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3 591d old Poll was fielded 591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 46.0	poll arch
9/24/2024	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	950	—	LV	593d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 593d old Poll was fielded 593 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Ted Cruz 49.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
9/18/2024	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	1.00	—	1200	—	LV	no scored polls599d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 599d old Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 48.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
9/18/2024	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	2716	—	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt599d old+4 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 599d old Poll was fielded 599 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=2,716 Sample size of 2,716 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 44.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
9/9/2024	CWS Research	1.00	R	504	—	LV	no scored polls608d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 608d old Poll was fielded 608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 46.0 · Colin Allred 40.0	poll arch
9/8/2024	Morning Consult	1.00	—(D+5.0)	2940	—	LV	historical bias D+5.0pt609d old+4 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 29 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 609d old Poll was fielded 609 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=2,940 Sample size of 2,940 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 62 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 42.0	poll arch
9/5/2024	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	845	—	LV	612d old✓ verified 5d ago+4 612d old Poll was fielded 612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. university-sponsored: New Emerson College Polling Commissioned by New Emerson College Polling, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Ted Cruz 48.0 · Colin Allred 44.0	poll arch
8/31/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1200	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt617d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 617d old Poll was fielded 617 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 44.0 · Colin Allred 36.0	poll arch
8/30/2024	Quantus Insights	1.00	R	1000	—	RV	no scored polls618d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 618d old Poll was fielded 618 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.2pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.2pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 50.0 · Colin Allred 43.0	poll arch
8/29/2024	Texas Public Opinion Research/Lake Research Partners	1.00	L	800	—	RV	no scored polls619d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 619d old Poll was fielded 619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 43.0	poll arch
8/29/2024	ActiVote	1.01	L(D+3.9)	400	—	LV	historical bias D+3.9pt619d old+3 historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. 619d old Poll was fielded 619 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 55.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
8/22/2024	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	725	—	RV	626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+3 626d old Poll was fielded 626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
8/16/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1365	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt632d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 632d old Poll was fielded 632 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
7/18/2024	ActiVote	1.01	L(D+3.9)	400	—	LV	historical bias D+3.9pt661d old+3 historical bias D+3.9pt Across 26 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.9pt — a measurable house effect. 661d old Poll was fielded 661 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 47 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 54.0 · Colin Allred 46.0	poll arch
7/1/2024	Remington Research Group	0.61	neutral(D+0.5)	589	—	LV	678d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 678d old Poll was fielded 678 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.5pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 53.0 · Colin Allred 43.0	poll arch
7/1/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1484	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt678d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 678d old Poll was fielded 678 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 44.0	poll arch
6/27/2024	Manhattan Institute	1.00	R	600	—	LV	no scored polls682d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 682d old Poll was fielded 682 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 46.0 · Colin Allred 43.0	poll arch
6/20/2024	UT Tyler	1.00	—	1144	—	RV	no scored polls689d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 689d old Poll was fielded 689 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+9.4pt vs editors Across 6 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 9.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 43.0 · Colin Allred 39.0	poll arch
6/9/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1200	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt700d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 700d old Poll was fielded 700 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 45.0 · Colin Allred 34.0	poll arch
4/22/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1200	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt748d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 748d old Poll was fielded 748 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 46.0 · Colin Allred 33.0	poll arch
4/21/2024	Texas Lyceum	1.00	—	926	—	RV	no scored polls749d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 749d old Poll was fielded 749 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 41.0 · Colin Allred 31.0	poll arch
4/10/2024	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	1.00	—	1600	—	LV	no scored polls760d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 760d old Poll was fielded 760 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=1,600 Sample size of 1,600 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Ted Cruz 46.0 · Colin Allred 41.0	poll arch
4/6/2024	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	1000	—	RV	764d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 764d old Poll was fielded 764 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 45.0 · Colin Allred 36.0	poll arch
3/21/2024	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1117	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt780d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 780d old Poll was fielded 780 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Ted Cruz 51.0 · Colin Allred 45.0	poll arch
2/26/2024	UT Tyler	1.00	—	1167	—	RV	no scored polls804d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 804d old Poll was fielded 804 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+9.4pt vs editors Across 6 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 9.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 41.0 · Colin Allred 41.0	poll arch
2/12/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1200	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt818d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 818d old Poll was fielded 818 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 46.0 · Colin Allred 32.0	poll arch
2/12/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1200	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt818d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 818d old Poll was fielded 818 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 45.0 · Roland Gutierrez 31.0	poll arch
2/8/2024	National Public Affairs	1.00	—	807	—	LV	no scored polls822d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 822d old Poll was fielded 822 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Ted Cruz 44.0 · Colin Allred 44.0	poll arch
1/24/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1145	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt837d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 837d old Poll was fielded 837 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 48.0 · Colin Allred 39.0	poll arch
1/24/2024	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1145	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt837d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 837d old Poll was fielded 837 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 48.0 · Roland Gutierrez 38.0	poll arch
1/15/2024	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1315	—	RV	846d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 846d old Poll was fielded 846 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Ted Cruz 42.0 · Colin Allred 40.0	poll arch
1/15/2024	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1315	—	RV	846d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 846d old Poll was fielded 846 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Ted Cruz 41.0 · Roland Gutierrez 40.0	poll arch
12/10/2023	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1200	—	RV	historical bias D+3.7pt882d old+2 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 882d old Poll was fielded 882 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 43.0 · Colin Allred 27.0	poll arch
12/10/2023	YouGov	1.00	—(D+3.7)	1200	—	RV	flagged on verificationhistorical bias D+3.7pt+2 flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 68.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. historical bias D+3.7pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 882d old Poll was fielded 882 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 42.0 · Roland Gutierrez 26.0	poll arch
5/21/2023	UT Tyler	1.00	—	1413	—	RV	no scored polls1085d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1085d old Poll was fielded 1085 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+9.4pt vs editors Across 6 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 9.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 42.0 · Colin Allred 37.0	poll arch
5/17/2023	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	1.00	—	1000	—	RV	no scored polls1089d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1089d old Poll was fielded 1089 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Ted Cruz 47.0 · Colin Allred 40.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 13 total

Ted Cruz (R)

13 endorsements · source

Elected officials (1)

Senate Conservatives Fund — [ 22 ]

Organizations / unions (4)

American Israel Public Affairs Committee — [ 19 ]
National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund — [ 21 ]
Republican Jewish Coalition — [ 17 ]
Texas Alliance for Life — [ 23 ]

Other (8)

70 — 80%
80 — 90%
>90%
Club for Growth — [ 20 ]
Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas — [ 18 ]
Norm Coleman — Minnesota (2003–2009) [ 17 ]
Turning Point Action — [ 24 ]
Young Conservatives of Texas — [ 25 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-31

Total IE spending

$78.3M

For candidates

$47.9M

Against candidates

$30.4M

Latest filing: 12/31/2024
Source: FEC Schedule E

Colin Allred (D)

$44.5M for · $13.7M against

Cash on hand

$144K

Total raised (cycle)

$94.7M

Total spent

$94.5M

Debts

Source: FEC

$43.0M for WINSENATE Super PAC
$5.3M against RED SENATE Super PAC
$4.5M against TRUTH AND COURAGE PAC Super PAC
$3.7M against WIN IT BACK PAC Super PAC
$539K for NOVEMBER COALITION Super PAC

Ted Cruz (R)

$3.3M for · $16.6M against

Cash on hand

$1.8M

Total raised (cycle)

$74.1M

Total spent

$75.6M

Debts

Source: FEC

$12.5M against WINSENATE Super PAC
$3.1M against SD PAC Super PAC
$1.3M for TRUTH AND COURAGE PAC Super PAC
$1.3M for RED SENATE Super PAC
$750K against CRUSH MAGA PAC Super PAC

Roland Gutierrez (D)

$183K for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$385

Total raised (cycle)

$1.4M

Total spent

$1.4M

Debts

Source: FEC

$155K for NUESTRO PAC Super PAC
$15K for NAKASEC ACTION FUND PAC
$8K for ASIAN AMERICANS FOR CHANGE FUND Super PAC
$5K for LUPE VOTES PAC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

9 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
CNalysis	Tilt R	Oct 23	—	-1.3	—
The Cook Political Report	Lean R	Oct 1	—	-3.5	—
Decision Desk HQ / The Hill	Lean R	Aug 26	—	-3.5	—
Elections Daily	Lean R	Nov 4	—	-3.5	—
538	Likely R	Oct 23	—	-9.0	—
Inside Elections	Tilt R	Oct 31	—	-1.3	—
RealClearPolitics	Tossup	Oct 30	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	Nov 4	—	-3.5	—
Split Ticket	Lean R	Oct 23	—	-3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 18 months ago (11/4/2024) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (2 changes)

9/21/2024 Lean R R+4.9 via polls held 75d
7/8/2024 Likely R R+7.6 via polls