Races · Senate · 2024 · Texas

Senate · class I · open seat

Colin Allred vs Ted Cruz

← Tennessee Senate Utah Senate →

Likely RR +9.2 forecast· 51 polls · 0 markets

Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
6% Allred (D)
94% Cruz (R)
Win probability
Colin Allred6% (D)
Ted Cruz94% (R)
Modelpoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimateR +9.2
80% CIR+21.2 → D+2.8
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +9.2 · 80% CI R+21.2 → D+2.8
Actual result R+8.5 · backtest (race already called)

Momentum

—

insufficient data

Tipping-point P

0.0%

Decisive for chamber control

Market · D-side

—

Cross-platform consensus

News articles · 30d

—

no recent coverage

Where this race stands

Verified

Lean R · model 94% R

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+5) suggests Lean R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+9.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+21.2 (10th pctile) to D+2.8 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · lean-r

Forecast · poliagg-v34

Predicted final margin

R +9.2

80% CI: R +21.2 → D +2.8 · win prob 6%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · high

Polls used	51
Days to election	passed
Actual result	R+8.5
Residual σ	6.00pt
Generated	7/1/2026

Polling average

POLL DOTSCI BAND
25303540455055CRUZ 50.8ALLRED 44.6MAY '23FEB '24NOV '24
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 51 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag

Date	Pollster · trust signals	n · pop	Lean	Bias · track	vs raters	D · R
Nov 3, 24	AtlasIntel+2For · AtlasIntel	2,434 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.330 tracked	-4.0r lean	46 · 53
Oct 30, 24	Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult	2,120 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	44 · 47
Oct 27, 24	Cygnal+1For · Tampa Free Press	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +1.954 tracked	+1.2aligned	45 · 49
Oct 26, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	48 · 52
Oct 25, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	1,180 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	46 · 50
Oct 24, 24	Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports	1,002 · LV	NEUTRAL	R +1.9124 tracked	-0.9aligned	43 · 47
Oct 22, 24	GBAO+2For · Politico	800 · LV	D-LEAN	—	+9.3d lean	46 · 46
Oct 20, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	815 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	47 · 48
Oct 20, 24	UT Tyler+1	956 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	+9.4d lean	45 · 47
Oct 16, 24	YouGov	1,108 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	45 · 49
Oct 15, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	47 · 53
Oct 14, 24	Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult	2,048 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	45 · 46
Oct 9, 24	YouGovFor · The Texas Politics Project	1,091 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	44 · 51
Oct 9, 24	University of Houston	1,329 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	46 · 50
Oct 6, 24	Marist College+1For · Marist College	1,186 · LV	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	46 · 51
Oct 5, 24	Mainstreet Research/FAU+1	811 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +4.74 tracked	+0.6aligned	43 · 46
Oct 3, 24	New York Times/Siena College+1For · The New York Times	617 · LV	D-LEAN	D +4.16 tracked	+2.0aligned	44 · 48
Sep 29, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	48 · 52
Sep 26, 24	RMG Research	779 · LV	D-LEAN	D +6.68 tracked	+2.6d lean	45 · 48
Sep 25, 24	Public Policy Polling+1	759 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	46 · 47
Sep 23, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	950 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	45 · 49
Sep 17, 24	Texas Hispanic Policy FoundationFor · wfaa.com	1,200 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	45 · 48
Sep 17, 24	Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult	2,716 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	45 · 44
Sep 8, 24	CWS Research	504 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	40 · 46
Sep 7, 24	Morning Consult+2For · Morning Consult	2,940 · LV	D-LEAN	D +5.230 tracked	+1.8aligned	42 · 47
Sep 4, 24	Emerson College+2For · New Emerson College Polling	845 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	44 · 48
Aug 30, 24	YouGovFor · The Texas Politics Project	1,200 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	36 · 44
Aug 29, 24	Quantus Insights+1	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+4.5d lean	43 · 50
Aug 28, 24	Texas Public Opinion Research/Lake Research Partners	800 · RV	D-LEAN	—	—	43 · 47
Aug 28, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	45 · 55
Aug 21, 24	Public Policy Polling+1	725 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.9104 tracked	+2.4noisy	45 · 47
Aug 15, 24	YouGov	1,365 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	45 · 47
Jul 17, 24	ActiVote+1For · ActiVote	400 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.926 tracked	+1.0aligned	46 · 54
Jun 30, 24	Remington Research Group+1	589 · LV	NEUTRAL	D +0.211 tracked	+1.6aligned	43 · 53
Jun 30, 24	YouGov	1,484 · LV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	44 · 47
Jun 26, 24	Manhattan InstituteFor · Manhattan Institute	600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	43 · 46
Jun 19, 24	UT Tyler+1	1,144 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+9.4d lean	39 · 43
Jun 8, 24	YouGov	1,200 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	34 · 45
Apr 21, 24	YouGov	1,200 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	33 · 46
Apr 20, 24	Texas Lyceum	926 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	31 · 41
Apr 9, 24	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation+1	1,600 · LV	NEUTRAL	—	—	41 · 46
Apr 5, 24	Cygnal	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +1.954 tracked	+1.2aligned	36 · 45
Mar 20, 24	Marist College+1For · Marist College	1,117 · RV	D-LEAN	D +2.025 tracked	+1.7aligned	45 · 51
Feb 25, 24	UT Tyler+1	1,167 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+9.4d lean	41 · 41
Feb 11, 24	YouGov	1,200 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	32 · 46
Feb 7, 24	National Public Affairs	807 · LV	R-LEAN	—	—	44 · 44
Jan 23, 24	YouGov	1,145 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	39 · 48
Jan 14, 24	Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling	1,315 · RV	NEUTRAL	D +0.7118 tracked	+0.8aligned	40 · 42
Dec 9, 23	YouGov	1,200 · RV	D-LEAN	D +3.423 tracked	+2.2d lean	27 · 43
May 20, 23	UT Tyler+1	1,413 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	+9.4d lean	37 · 42
May 16, 23	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation	1,000 · RV	NEUTRAL	—	—	40 · 47

· 51 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 10 total

Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet

Cruz · 100%10
Endorsements tracked
Colin Allred0 · 0%
Ted Cruz10 · 100%
Total10
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.

RTed Cruz10 endorsers

Most notable · Senate Conservatives Fund

Other5

Organizations4

Elected officials1

DColin Allred0 endorsers

no endorsers yet

No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-12-31

Colin AllredS4TX00722 ↗

Receipts

$94.7M

Disburse

$94.5M

Cash on hand

$144.1K

Debts

Top industries

No industry data.

Top contributors

No contributor data.

Ted CruzS2TX00312 ↗

Receipts

$74.1M

Disburse

$75.6M

Cash on hand

$1.8M

Debts

Top industries

Air transport$73.7K

Securities & investment$27.4K

Top contributors

INFORMATION REQUESTED PER BEST EFFORTS$780.2K

ENTREPRENEUR$458.1K

RDV CORPORATION$39.6K

AMERICAN AIRLINES$29.6K

BLACKSTONE$27.4K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports

IE total

$78.1M

D side

$61.1M · 78%

R side

$17.0M · 22%

Top spender

WINSENATE

For / against split

For Allred $44.5M

Against Cruz $16.6M

Against Allred $13.7M

For Cruz $3.3M

Spender	Side	Amount	Share	Target
WINSENATE	D	$55.5M	71%	for Colin Allred
RED SENATE	R	$6.5M	8%	against Colin Allred
TRUTH AND COURAGE PAC	R	$5.8M	7%	against Colin Allred
WIN IT BACK PAC	R	$3.7M	5%	against Colin Allred
SD PAC	D	$3.1M	4%	against Ted Cruz
CRUSH MAGA PAC	D	$750.0K	1%	against Ted Cruz
NOVEMBER COALITION	D	$538.8K	1%	for Colin Allred

Editorial ratings · 9 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.

Tossup1

Tilt R2

Lean R5

Likely R1

CNalysis

Tilt R

Oct 22

The Cook Political Report

Lean R

Sep 30

Decision Desk HQ / The Hill

Lean R

Aug 25

Elections Daily

Lean R

Nov 3

538

Likely R

Oct 22

Inside Elections

Tilt R

Oct 30

RealClearPolitics

Tossup

Oct 29

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Lean R

Nov 3

Split Ticket

Lean R

Oct 22

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender

No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.

Rating timeline

May 11, 2026Likely Rmodel

Verification trail

Polls verified51 / 51deterministic

Polls flagged—none

Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed

FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-12-31

Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape

News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News

Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks