Races · Senate · 2024 · Utah
Senate · class I · open seat
Caroline Gleich vs John Curtis
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+38.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+50.1 (10th pctile) to R+26.1 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +38.1
80% CI: R +50.1 → R +26.1 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 5 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+30.8 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive | 695 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 26 · 54 |
| Oct 18 | HarrisX+2For · Deseret News | 813 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +0.465 tracked | -1.9aligned | 20 · 55 |
| Oct 6 | Noble Predictive InsightsFor · Noble Predictive | 539 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 24 · 53 |
| Sep 18 | Lighthouse Research+1For · Deseret News | 526 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 34 · 53 |
| Aug 8 | HarrisX+2For · Deseret News | 800 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +0.465 tracked | -1.9aligned | 22 · 56 |
Endorsements · 34 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet2
32
Endorsements tracked
Caroline Gleich2 · 6%
John Curtis32 · 94%
Total34
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJohn Curtis32 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
Elected officials13
Federal 9State 3Local 0
Elected officials · 13
- Donald Trump · 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)
- Mitch McConnell · U.S. Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2007–2015, 2021–2025), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)
- Kari Lake · former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for governor of Arizona in 2022
- Spencer Cox · Governor of Utah (2021–present)
- Mike Lee · U.S. Senator from Utah (2011–present)
- Mitt Romney · incumbent U.S. Senator from Utah (2019–present)
- Rand Paul · U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)
- Steve Daines · U.S. Senator from Montana (2015–present)
- Tommy Tuberville · U.S. Senator from Alabama (2021–present)
- Mark Levin · Chief of Staff to the U.S. Attorney General (1988–1989)
- Kash Patel · former chief of staff to the acting United States Secretary of Defense
- Senate Conservatives Fund
- Stuart Adams · ators, including senate president Stuart Adams
Other12
Other · 12
- Blake Moore · UT-01 (2021–present)
- Vivek Ramaswamy · businessman and former 2024 presidential candidate
- BIPAC
- Chris Stewart · UT-02 (2013–2023)
- Citizens United PVF
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions
- Fraternal Order of Police · olice
- Harmeet Dhillon · Republican National Committeewoman for California (2016–present)
- John Stockton · former Utah Jazz basketball player
- Republicans for National Renewal
- Richard Grenell · former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)
- Turning Point Action
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- American Conservation Coalition
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee · (AIPAC)
- ClearPath Action Fund
- Forward Party
- Republican Main Street Partnership · PAC
- Utah Republican Party
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Charlie Kirk · founder and executive director of Turning Point USA
DCaroline Gleich2 endorsers
Most notable · Utah Democratic Party
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Utah Democratic Party
Other1
Other · 1
- Conrad Anker · professional rock climber
ICarlton Bowen0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2024-10-19John CurtisS4UT00282 ↗
Receipts
$5.7M
Disburse
$5.3M
Cash on hand
$788.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Electric utilities$23.5K
Electric utilities · $23.5K
- Nextera Energy · $23.5K
Individuals $23.5K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$23.3K
Lawyers / law firms · $23.3K
- Steel & Eisner, LLP · $23.3K
Individuals $23.3K · PACs $0
Air transport$15.3K
Air transport · $15.3K
- Delta Air Lines · $15.3K
Individuals $15.3K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SUNRUN$51.4K
VIVINT$29.7K
CEO$28.2K
NEXTERA ENERGY$23.5K
STEEL & EISNER, LLP$23.3K
Caroline GleichS4UT00308 ↗
Receipts
$1.2M
Disburse
$1.2M
Cash on hand
$24.8K
Debts
$11.5K
Top industries
Education$36.2K
Education · $36.2K
- University of Utah · $27.1K
- University of Utah Health · $9.2K
Individuals $36.2K · PACs $0
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF UTAH$27.1K
UNIVERSITY OF UTAH HEALTH$9.2K
IMPACT PARTNERS$9.0K
LHP CAPITAL, LLC$6.6K
ALBION$3.4K
Carlton Bowen
Receipts
$31.4K
Disburse
$35.3K
Cash on hand
$78.65
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
INTERMOUNTAIN HEALTH$1.1K
NETDOCUMENTS$500
TETON$210
IMAGINE LEARNING$120
GAUGE AUTOMOTIVE$120
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$23.7M
D side
$134.7K · 1%
R side
$23.5M · 99%
Top spender
DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS super pac · boosts R
| R | $13.3M | 56% | for John Curtis |
| CONSERVATIVE VALUES FOR UTAH super pac · boosts R
| R | $7.6M | 32% | for John Curtis |
| CLEARPATH ACTION FUND, INC. super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.3M | 5% | for John Curtis |
| AMERICAN CONSERVATION COALITION PAC (ACC PAC) super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.0M | 4% | for John Curtis |
| EDF ACTION VOTES super pac · boosts R
| R | $202.6K | 1% | for John Curtis |
| PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND pac · boosts D
| D | $44.7K | 0% | for Caroline Gleich |
| SIERRA CLUB INDEPENDENT ACTION super pac · boosts D
| D | $30 | 0% | for Caroline Gleich |
Editorial ratings · 9 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R9
Safe R · 9 raters
- CNalysis · Nov 20
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 8
- Decision Desk HQ / The Hill · Jun 7
- Elections Daily · May 3
- 538 · Oct 22
- Inside Elections · Nov 8
- RealClearPolitics · Aug 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 8
- Split Ticket · Oct 22
CNalysis
Safe RThe Cook Political Report
Safe RDecision Desk HQ / The Hill
Safe RElections Daily
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RSplit Ticket
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified5 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2024-10-19
Endorsements34 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks