Pollster · 676 of 1769
CNN/ORC
Polls scored
12
Mean error
3.4 pt
Signed bias
D+2.23
Aggregation weight
1.27
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components61
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 12 graded races, CNN/ORC's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.7pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+1.7pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
3.9pp
N graded
12
Recent activity
Total all time
20
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | #9 / 19 | 4 | 4.39 pt | D+2.16 pp |
| 2014 | #2 / 21 | 3 | 1.49 pt | R+0.07 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/31/2016Arizona · Senate · 2016John McCain 54.0 · Ann Kirkpatrick 41.0
- 10/31/2016Florida · Senate · 2016Marco Rubio 49.0 · Patrick Murphy 48.0
- 10/31/2016Nevada · Senate · 2016Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Joe Heck 49.0
- 10/31/2016Pennsylvania · Senate · 2016Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 51.0
- 10/14/2016North Carolina · Governor · 2016Pat McCrory 48.0 · Roy Cooper 49.0
- 10/14/2016North Carolina · Senate · 2016Richard Burr 48.0 · Deborah Ross 47.0
- 10/14/2016Nevada · Senate · 2016Catherine Cortez Masto 52.0 · Joe Heck 45.0
- 10/14/2016Ohio · Senate · 2016Rob Portman 56.0 · Ted Strickland 40.0
- 9/24/2016Colorado · Senate · 2016Michael Bennet 53.0 · Darryl Glenn 43.0
- 9/24/2016Pennsylvania · Senate · 2016Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 49.0