Pollster · 745 of 1053

CNN/ORC

GRADE A NEUTRAL LEAN
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Polls scored
20
Mean error
3.1 pt
Signed bias
D+1.20
Aggregation weight
1.27
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components
63
of 100 · tier · strong

Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.

Aggregator weight 64
Verification rate 0
Sample size median 75
Citation rate 100
Outlier rate (inv.) 100
Rater alignment 87
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned

Across 12 graded races, CNN/ORC's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.7pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.

Mean delta
+1.7pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
3.9pp
N graded
12
Sample races (links to detail):
us-governor-2016-ncus-senate-2016-azus-senate-2016-fl
Recent activity
Total all time
20
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0

Last poll 11/1/2016 (3476d ago) · status dormant

Per-cycle debrief appearances
Cycle Rank Polls MAE Signed bias
2016 #10 / 19 4 4.39 pt D+2.16 pp
2014 #2 / 21 3 1.49 pt R+0.07 pp
Recent polls