Races · Senate · 2016 · PA

Senate · class II · open seat

Katie McGinty vs Pat Toomey

← OR Senate SC Senate →

Tilt R — · 117 polls · 0 markets Last poll 3471d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 117 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tilt R

tilt-r

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 117 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:117 of 117 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2845	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3471d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3471d old Poll was fielded 3471 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,845 Sample size of 2,845 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.8pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat Toomey 45.0 · Katie McGinty 49.0	poll arch
11/6/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2685	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3472d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3472d old Poll was fielded 3472 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,685 Sample size of 2,685 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.9pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat Toomey 45.0 · Katie McGinty 50.0	poll arch
11/5/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	931	±4.3	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3473d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3473d old Poll was fielded 3473 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0	poll arch
11/4/2016	Clarity Campaign Labs	1.04	L(D+3.9)	1033	±3.0	unknown	3474d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus 3474d old Poll was fielded 3474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.	Pat Toomey 43.0 · Katie McGinty 46.0	poll arch
11/4/2016	Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	2.42	—(R+0.4)	405	±5.5	unknown	3 scored polls3474d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3474d old Poll was fielded 3474 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 2.42 Aggregation weight is 2.42 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Pat Toomey 43.0 · Katie McGinty 42.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	Harper Polling	1.00	—	504	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3475d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 44.0 · Edward Clifford 6.0	poll arch
11/3/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2454	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3475d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3475d old Poll was fielded 3475 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,454 Sample size of 2,454 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.0pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat Toomey 45.0 · Katie McGinty 50.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	1016	±3.1	unknown	3476d oldtracks editorial consensus 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 43.0 · Katie McGinty 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	Susquehanna Polling & Research	1.12	neutral(D+0.1)	681	±3.8	unknown	3476d old 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0 · Edward Clifford 5.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2177	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,177 Sample size of 2,177 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 50.0	poll arch
11/2/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2078	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3476d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3476d old Poll was fielded 3476 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,078 Sample size of 2,078 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 50.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1050	±3.0	unknown	3477d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 46.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	403	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3477d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0 · Edward Clifford 3.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	799	±3.5	LV	3477d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 51.0	poll arch
11/1/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	612	±4.0	unknown	3477d oldtracks editorial consensus 3477d old Poll was fielded 3477 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Katie McGinty 48.0	poll arch
10/31/2016	SurveyMonkey	1.00	—(D+6.1)	2255	±4.6	unknown	historical bias D+6.1pt3478d old+2 historical bias D+6.1pt Across 236 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+6.1pt — a measurable house effect. 3478d old Poll was fielded 3478 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 236 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. n=2,255 Sample size of 2,255 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.1pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 49.0	poll arch
10/30/2016	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	652	±5.1	LV	3479d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+1 3479d old Poll was fielded 3479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Pat Toomey 35.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0 · Edward Clifford 1.0	poll arch
10/30/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	3217	±1.7	unknown	3479d oldn=3,217+1 3479d old Poll was fielded 3479 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=3,217 Sample size of 3,217 respondents implies a margin of error around ±1.7pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Katie McGinty 45.0	poll arch
10/28/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	1091	±3.7	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3481d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3481d old Poll was fielded 3481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Katie McGinty 44.0	poll arch
10/26/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	550	±4.1	unknown	3483d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3483d old Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Pat Toomey 43.0 · Katie McGinty 45.0	poll arch
10/26/2016	Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	2.42	—(R+0.4)	420	±5.5	unknown	3 scored polls3483d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3483d old Poll was fielded 3483 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 2.42 Aggregation weight is 2.42 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Katie McGinty 41.0	poll arch
10/25/2016	New York Times Upshot/Siena College	1.01	L(D+3.5)	824	±3.4	unknown	3484d olduniversity-sponsored: Siena College 3484d old Poll was fielded 3484 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. university-sponsored: Siena College Commissioned by Siena College, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0	poll arch
10/19/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	800	±3.4	unknown	3490d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3490d old Poll was fielded 3490 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 43.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	660	±3.8	unknown	3493d oldtracks editorial consensus 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 49.0 · Katie McGinty 45.0	poll arch
10/16/2016	Washington Post/SurveyMonkey	1.00	—	1449	±0.5	unknown	no scored polls3493d old+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3493d old Poll was fielded 3493 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+5.0pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.0pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0	poll arch
10/11/2016	Bloomberg/Selzer	1.00	—	806	±3.5	unknown	no scored polls3498d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3498d old Poll was fielded 3498 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 45.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0	poll arch
10/10/2016	The Times-Picayune/Lucid	1.01	L(D+4.0)	1457	±3.0	unknown	3499d old 3499d old Poll was fielded 3499 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 44.0	poll arch
10/9/2016	Susquehanna Polling & Research	1.12	neutral(D+0.1)	764	±3.5	unknown	3500d old 3500d old Poll was fielded 3500 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Katie McGinty 38.0 · Edward Clifford 7.0	poll arch
10/7/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	997	±4.2	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3502d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3502d old Poll was fielded 3502 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Katie McGinty 42.0	poll arch
10/6/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	709	±3.7	unknown	3503d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3503d old Poll was fielded 3503 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 48.0	poll arch
10/3/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	402	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3506d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3506d old Poll was fielded 3506 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 46.0 · Edward Clifford 3.0	poll arch
10/2/2016	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	496	±6.1	LV	3507d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+1 3507d old Poll was fielded 3507 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Pat Toomey 35.0 · Katie McGinty 41.0 · Edward Clifford 2.0	poll arch
10/2/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	535	±4.2	unknown	3507d oldtracks editorial consensus 3507d old Poll was fielded 3507 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 50.0 · Katie McGinty 42.0	poll arch
9/28/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	886	±3.3	unknown	3511d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3511d old Poll was fielded 3511 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 35.0 · Katie McGinty 40.0 · Edward Clifford 9.0	poll arch
9/25/2016	CNN/ORC	1.27	—(D+1.2)	771	±3.5	LV	3514d oldlikely-voter screen+1 3514d old Poll was fielded 3514 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 12 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 49.0	poll arch
9/23/2016	Breitbart/Gravis Marketing	0.74	L(D+4.2)	949	±3.2	unknown	3516d oldtracks editorial consensus 3516d old Poll was fielded 3516 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 39.0 · Katie McGinty 43.0	poll arch
9/23/2016	Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	2.42	—(R+0.4)	486	±5.0	unknown	3 scored polls3516d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3516d old Poll was fielded 3516 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 2.42 Aggregation weight is 2.42 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Katie McGinty 40.0	poll arch
9/23/2016	Mercyhurst University	1.00	—	420	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls3516d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3516d old Poll was fielded 3516 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 43.0 · Katie McGinty 42.0	poll arch
9/22/2016	Harper Polling	1.00	—	500	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3517d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3517d old Poll was fielded 3517 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Katie McGinty 42.0 · Edward Clifford 8.0	poll arch
9/19/2016	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps	1.00	—	400	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls3520d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3520d old Poll was fielded 3520 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 45.0 · Katie McGinty 43.0	poll arch
9/16/2016	Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	2.42	—(R+0.4)	405	±5.5	unknown	3 scored polls3523d old+1 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 3523d old Poll was fielded 3523 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. weight 2.42 Aggregation weight is 2.42 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Pat Toomey 38.0 · Katie McGinty 43.0	poll arch
9/7/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	778	±3.5	unknown	3532d oldtracks editorial consensus 3532d old Poll was fielded 3532 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 45.0	poll arch
9/2/2016	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	1091	±4.1	unknown	historical bias D+3.4pt3537d old+1 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 3537d old Poll was fielded 3537 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 39.0 · Katie McGinty 39.0	poll arch
8/31/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	814	±3.4	unknown	3539d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3539d old Poll was fielded 3539 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Katie McGinty 44.0	poll arch
8/29/2016	Monmouth University	1.00	—(D+5.0)	402	±4.9	unknown	historical bias D+5.0pt3541d old+1 historical bias D+5.0pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+5.0pt — a measurable house effect. 3541d old Poll was fielded 3541 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Katie McGinty 45.0 · Edward Clifford 6.0	poll arch
8/29/2016	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	496	±5.6	LV	3541d oldD+4.7pt vs editors+1 3541d old Poll was fielded 3541 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Pat Toomey 38.0 · Katie McGinty 43.0	poll arch
8/28/2016	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	800	±3.4	unknown	3542d oldtracks editorial consensus+1 3542d old Poll was fielded 3542 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 39.0	poll arch
8/28/2016	GBA Strategies	1.00	—	881	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls3542d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3542d old Poll was fielded 3542 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0	poll arch
8/27/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1194	±3.0	unknown	3543d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3543d old Poll was fielded 3543 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 40.0 · Katie McGinty 46.0	poll arch
8/7/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	815	±3.4	unknown	3563d oldtracks editorial consensus 3563d old Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0	poll arch
8/7/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	834	±3.4	unknown	3563d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3563d old Poll was fielded 3563 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 48.0	poll arch
8/4/2016	Susquehanna Polling & Research	1.12	neutral(D+0.1)	772	±3.5	unknown	3566d old 3566d old Poll was fielded 3566 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 40.0 · Katie McGinty 42.0	poll arch
8/1/2016	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	389	±6.3	LV	n=3893569d old+2 n=389 Sample size of 389 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. 3569d old Poll was fielded 3569 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Pat Toomey 38.0 · Katie McGinty 39.0	poll arch
7/31/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1505	±2.7	unknown	3570d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+2 3570d old Poll was fielded 3570 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt. n=1,505 Sample size of 1,505 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.5pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Katie McGinty 41.0	poll arch
7/27/2016	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	±4.4	unknown	3574d oldbias D+0.1pt+1 3574d old Poll was fielded 3574 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 36.0 · Katie McGinty 43.0	poll arch
7/11/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	982	±3.1	unknown	3590d oldtracks editorial consensus 3590d old Poll was fielded 3590 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 49.0 · Katie McGinty 39.0	poll arch
7/10/2016	NBC/WSJ/Marist	1.20	neutral(R+0.7)	829	±3.4	unknown	3591d oldbias R+0.7pt+1 3591d old Poll was fielded 3591 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. bias R+0.7pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.7pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 16 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Katie McGinty 47.0	poll arch
6/23/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	980	±3.1	unknown	3608d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3608d old Poll was fielded 3608 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 40.0 · Katie McGinty 39.0	poll arch
6/20/2016	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps	1.00	—	300	±5.7	unknown	no scored pollsn=300+1 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. n=300 Sample size of 300 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.7pt — wider than typical. 3611d old Poll was fielded 3611 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Katie McGinty 38.0	poll arch
6/19/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	950	±3.2	unknown	3612d oldtracks editorial consensus 3612d old Poll was fielded 3612 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 49.0 · Katie McGinty 40.0	poll arch
6/9/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	965	±3.2	unknown	3622d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3622d old Poll was fielded 3622 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 45.0 · Katie McGinty 42.0	poll arch
6/5/2016	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1106	±3.0	unknown	3626d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3626d old Poll was fielded 3626 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Katie McGinty 38.0	poll arch
5/8/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1077	±3.0	unknown	3654d oldtracks editorial consensus 3654d old Poll was fielded 3654 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 45.0 · Katie McGinty 44.0	poll arch
4/4/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1737	±2.4	unknown	3688d oldn=1,737+1 3688d old Poll was fielded 3688 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,737 Sample size of 1,737 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Katie McGinty 38.0	poll arch
4/4/2016	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1737	±2.4	unknown	3688d oldn=1,737+1 3688d old Poll was fielded 3688 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. n=1,737 Sample size of 1,737 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.4pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Joe Sestak 39.0	poll arch
3/11/2016	Mercyhurst University	1.00	—	421	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls3712d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3712d old Poll was fielded 3712 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Katie McGinty 34.0	poll arch
3/11/2016	Mercyhurst University	1.00	—	421	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls3712d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3712d old Poll was fielded 3712 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 49.0 · John Fetterman 31.0	poll arch
3/11/2016	Mercyhurst University	1.00	—	421	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls3712d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3712d old Poll was fielded 3712 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 43.0 · Joe Sestak 38.0	poll arch
3/11/2016	Mercyhurst University	1.00	—	421	±4.8	unknown	no scored polls3712d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3712d old Poll was fielded 3712 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Ed Pawlowski 31.0	poll arch
3/2/2016	Harper Polling	1.00	—	662	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls3721d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3721d old Poll was fielded 3721 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Katie McGinty 39.0	poll arch
3/2/2016	Harper Polling	1.00	—	662	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls3721d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3721d old Poll was fielded 3721 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · John Fetterman 36.0	poll arch
3/2/2016	Harper Polling	1.00	—	662	±3.8	unknown	no scored polls3721d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3721d old Poll was fielded 3721 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Joe Sestak 41.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	Robert Morris University	1.00	—	511	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls3736d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 34.0 · Katie McGinty 21.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	Robert Morris University	1.00	—	511	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls3736d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 38.0 · John Fetterman 14.0	poll arch
2/16/2016	Robert Morris University	1.00	—	511	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls3736d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3736d old Poll was fielded 3736 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 34.0 · Joe Sestak 18.0	poll arch
10/11/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1012	±3.1	unknown	3864d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3864d old Poll was fielded 3864 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 43.0 · Katie McGinty 36.0	poll arch
10/11/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1012	—	unknown	3864d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3864d old Poll was fielded 3864 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · John Fetterman 34.0	poll arch
10/11/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1012	—	unknown	3864d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 3864d old Poll was fielded 3864 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Joe Sestak 38.0	poll arch
10/5/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1049	±3.0	unknown	3870d oldtracks editorial consensus 3870d old Poll was fielded 3870 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 51.0 · Katie McGinty 31.0	poll arch
10/5/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1049	±3.0	unknown	3870d oldtracks editorial consensus 3870d old Poll was fielded 3870 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 49.0 · Joe Sestak 34.0	poll arch
9/10/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	700	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls3895d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3895d old Poll was fielded 3895 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 48.0 · Katie McGinty 34.0	poll arch
9/10/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	700	±3.7	unknown	no scored polls3895d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 3895d old Poll was fielded 3895 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Joe Sestak 37.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	605	±3.9	unknown	3912d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 35.0 · Katie McGinty 28.0	poll arch
8/24/2015	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	605	±3.9	unknown	3912d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 3912d old Poll was fielded 3912 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Joe Sestak 29.0	poll arch
8/18/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1085	±3.0	unknown	3918d oldtracks editorial consensus 3918d old Poll was fielded 3918 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 48.0 · Katie McGinty 32.0	poll arch
8/18/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1085	±3.0	unknown	3918d oldtracks editorial consensus 3918d old Poll was fielded 3918 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 48.0 · Joe Sestak 33.0	poll arch
6/15/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	970	±3.2	unknown	3982d oldtracks editorial consensus 3982d old Poll was fielded 3982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 47.0 · Joe Sestak 36.0	poll arch
6/15/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	970	±3.2	unknown	3982d oldtracks editorial consensus 3982d old Poll was fielded 3982 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 52.0 · Ed Pawlowski 28.0	poll arch
6/14/2015	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	556	±4.1	unknown	3983d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 3983d old Poll was fielded 3983 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 35.0 · Joe Sestak 31.0	poll arch
6/14/2015	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	556	±4.1	unknown	3983d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 3983d old Poll was fielded 3983 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 34.0 · Ed Pawlowski 23.0	poll arch
5/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	799	±3.5	unknown	4004d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4004d old Poll was fielded 4004 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Joe Sestak 38.0	poll arch
5/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	799	±3.5	unknown	4004d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4004d old Poll was fielded 4004 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Chris Carney 35.0	poll arch
5/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	799	±3.5	unknown	4004d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4004d old Poll was fielded 4004 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Vincent Hughes 35.0	poll arch
5/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	799	±3.5	unknown	4004d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4004d old Poll was fielded 4004 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Ed Pawlowski 34.0	poll arch
5/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	799	±3.5	unknown	4004d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4004d old Poll was fielded 4004 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 46.0 · Ed Rendell 41.0	poll arch
5/24/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	799	±3.5	unknown	4004d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4004d old Poll was fielded 4004 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Seth Williams 33.0	poll arch
5/16/2015	Robert Morris University	1.00	—	529	±4.5	unknown	no scored polls4012d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4012d old Poll was fielded 4012 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 28.5 · Joe Sestak 34.2	poll arch
5/7/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	503	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4021d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4021d old Poll was fielded 4021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 53.0 · Joe Sestak 32.0	poll arch
5/7/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	503	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4021d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4021d old Poll was fielded 4021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 54.0 · Ed Pawlowski 30.0	poll arch
5/7/2015	Harper Polling	1.00	—	503	±4.4	unknown	no scored polls4021d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4021d old Poll was fielded 4021 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 55.0 · Josh Shapiro 27.0	poll arch
3/28/2015	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1036	±3.0	unknown	4061d oldtracks editorial consensus 4061d old Poll was fielded 4061 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 48.0 · Joe Sestak 35.0	poll arch
3/23/2015	Franklin & Marshall College	0.91	L(D+4.4)	597	±4.2	unknown	4066d oldD+4.7pt vs editors 4066d old Poll was fielded 4066 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+4.7pt vs editors Across 15 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.7pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 34.0 · Joe Sestak 29.0	poll arch
1/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1042	±3.0	unknown	4130d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4130d old Poll was fielded 4130 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 40.0 · Joe Sestak 36.0	poll arch
1/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1042	±3.0	unknown	4130d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4130d old Poll was fielded 4130 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 44.0 · Kathleen Kane 38.0	poll arch
1/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1042	±3.0	unknown	4130d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4130d old Poll was fielded 4130 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Chris Matthews 38.0	poll arch
1/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1042	±3.0	unknown	4130d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4130d old Poll was fielded 4130 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Michael Nutter 35.0	poll arch
1/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1042	±3.0	unknown	4130d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4130d old Poll was fielded 4130 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Ed Rendell 44.0	poll arch
1/18/2015	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	1042	±3.0	unknown	4130d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4130d old Poll was fielded 4130 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 43.0 · Josh Shapiro 31.0	poll arch
6/1/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	835	±3.4	unknown	4361d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4361d old Poll was fielded 4361 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Katie McGinty 38.0	poll arch
6/1/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	835	±3.4	unknown	4361d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4361d old Poll was fielded 4361 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Joe Sestak 35.0	poll arch
6/1/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	835	±3.4	unknown	4361d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4361d old Poll was fielded 4361 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 40.0 · Kathleen Kane 42.0	poll arch
6/1/2014	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	835	±3.4	unknown	4361d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4361d old Poll was fielded 4361 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 41.0 · Josh Shapiro 32.0	poll arch
12/22/2013	Harper Polling	1.00	—	604	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4522d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4522d old Poll was fielded 4522 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 49.0 · Joe Sestak 42.0	poll arch
12/22/2013	Harper Polling	1.00	—	604	±4.0	unknown	no scored polls4522d old no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 4522d old Poll was fielded 4522 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.	Pat Toomey 49.0 · Kathleen Kane 44.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Joe Sestak 42.0	poll arch
11/25/2013	Public Policy Polling	1.00	—(D+1.1)	693	±3.7	unknown	4549d olduncorrelated with editorial consensus+1 4549d old Poll was fielded 4549 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 368 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. bias D+1.1pt Across 72 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Kathleen Kane 46.0	poll arch
6/4/2013	Quinnipiac University	1.00	—(D+1.9)	1032	±3.1	unknown	4723d oldtracks editorial consensus 4723d old Poll was fielded 4723 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. tracks editorial consensus Across 81 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Pat Toomey 42.0 · Joe Sestak 37.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 19 total

Pat Toomey (R)

19 endorsements · source

Elected officials (7)

Carly Fiorina — former CEO of Hewlett-Packard , Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in California in 2010 , candidate for president in 2016 [ 14 ]
Gabby Giffords — U.S. representative from Arizona's 8th congressional district (2007–2012) (Democratic) [ 12 ]
John Cornyn — U.S. senator from Texas (2002–present), Senate Majority Whip (2015–2019) [ 9 ]
John McCain — U.S. senator from Arizona (1987–2018), Republican nominee for president in 2008 , candidate for president in 2000 [ 11 ]
Joni Ernst — U.S. senator from Iowa (2015–present) [ 10 ]
Michael Bloomberg — 108th mayor of New York City (2002–2013) and CEO of Bloomberg L.P. [ 13 ]
Ted Cruz — U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present), candidate for president in 2016 [ 9 ]

Newspapers (6)

Bucks County Courier Times — [ 19 ]
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette — [ 22 ]
The Patriot-News — [ 21 ]
The Tribune-Democrat — [ 23 ]
Williamsport Sun-Gazette — [ 24 ]
York Daily Record — [ 25 ]

Other (6)

Altoona Mirror — [ 18 ]
Americans for Responsible Solutions — [ 15 ]
Club for Growth — [ 16 ]
John Bolton — 25th United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006) [ 8 ]
The Intelligencer — [ 20 ]
United States Chamber of Commerce — [ 17 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Nov 2	—	0.0	—
Real Clear Politics	Tossup	Nov 7	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 7	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 116 months ago (11/7/2016) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (1 change)

5/6/2026 Tilt R via pvi