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Pollster · 98 of 1769

Pan Atlantic Research

GRADE CWEIGHT TIER T3NEUTRAL LEAN</> Embed
Polls scored
5
Mean error
4.9 pt
Signed bias
D+2.43
Aggregation weight
1.00

Pollster vs prediction market

From 46 race-polls · 10 matched markets
Pre-poll P(D) (avg)
60.9%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+0.1 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+2.7 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Pan Atlantic Research's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components
55
of 100 · tier · moderate

Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.

Aggregator weight50
Verification rate54
Sample size median49
Citation rate76
Outlier rate (inv.)not yet measured
Rater alignment35
Pollster vs editorial consensus
decoupled

Across 10 graded races, Pan Atlantic Research's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +6.9pp. Decoupled from editorial consensus — directionally different from Cook/Sabato/IE on multiple races.

Mean delta
+6.9pp
Median delta
+5.0pp
Std-dev
5.3pp
N graded
10
Recent activity
Total all time
46
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
8
Last 180d
16

Last poll 5/19/2026 (48d ago)· status active

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