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Races · Governor · 2022 · Maine
Governor · open seat

Janet Mills vs Paul LePage

← Maryland GovernorMichigan Governor →
Likely DD +7.8 forecast· 18 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
90% Mills (D)
10% LePage (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +7.8 · 80% CI R+4.2 → D+19.9
Actual result D+13.2 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 90% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+2) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.2 (10th pctile) to D+19.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +7.8
80% CI: R +4.2 → D +19.9 · win prob 90%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used18
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+13.2
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

364044485256MILLS 50.9MILLS 50.3LEPAGE 42.7LEPAGE 42.5SEP '22OCT '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 18 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 5, 22University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire922 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned52 · 44
Nov 3, 22University of New Hampshire Survey Center922 · unknownNEUTRAL———
Nov 1, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,116 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned49 · 43
Oct 29, 22SurveyUSA1,116 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned—
Oct 28, 22Ascend Action+1For · Ascend Action471 · LVD-LEAND +13.27 tracked+10.6d lean55 · 40
Oct 27, 22Ascend Action471 · unknownD-LEAND +13.27 tracked+10.6d lean—
Oct 14, 22Pan Atlantic Research+1400 · LVNEUTRAL—+6.9decoupled49 · 39
Oct 10, 22Pan Atlantic Research800 · unknownNEUTRAL—+6.9decoupled—
Sep 19, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,164 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned53 · 41
Sep 18, 22University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire694 · LVNEUTRALR +0.912 tracked+0.3aligned53 · 39
Sep 18, 22Emerson College1,164 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned—
Sep 16, 22University of New Hampshire Survey Center694 · unknownNEUTRAL———
Sep 8, 22Maine People's Resource Center+1814 · RVNEUTRAL—+4.4d lean49 · 38
May 12, 22Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1500 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned51 · 46
May 4, 22Pan Atlantic Research+1824 · LVNEUTRAL—+6.9decoupled46 · 42
Apr 6, 22Digital Research Inc.622 · RVNEUTRAL——42 · 39
Aug 30, 21SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,242 · RVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned46 · 41
May 18, 21SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA514 · RVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned45 · 38
· 18 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 4 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
2Mills · 50%
LePage · 50%2
DJanet Mills2 endorsers
Most notable · Troy Jackson · President of the Maine Senate (2018–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Other1
RPaul LePage2 endorsers
Most notable · Chris Sununu · governor of New Hampshire (2017–2025)
Elected officials2
Federal 1State 1Local 0
DEMJanet T. Mills0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPPaul R. LePage0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
Lean D4
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Mar 3
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 6
538
Likely D
Sep 17
Inside Elections
Lean D
Jul 21
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Aug 17

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified12 / 18deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements4 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks