Races · Governor · 2026 · Maine
Governor · open seat
Hannah Pingree vs Robert Charles
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 90% D
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+12.5, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+10.8 with an 80% CI ranging from tied (10th pctile) to D+21.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 15.0% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward R at 0.8pp/wk over the 30d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 55/100 (medium). Polls and forecasts agree at a moderate level.
CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
55
Medium uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement24
4.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution24 / 100
Measured4.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion15
1.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution15 / 100
Measured1.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +10.8
80% CI: R +0.2 → D +21.8 · win prob 90%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 4 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +6.6
80% CI R +8.6 → D +8.7
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +11.5
80% CI D +9.5 → D +13.5
CV MAE 1.56
consensusMarket-implied
D +12.1
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 90¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 38 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 90% · polls 51%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
4 polls · through Jun 27, 2026 · latest Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research
Hannah Pingree
VoteHub52.7%
VoteHub
Polling average52.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg51.3%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average51.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.4 pt above our average
Nirav Shah
VoteHub47.0%
VoteHub
Polling average47.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Bobby Charles
VoteHub39.3%
VoteHub
Polling average39.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
Robert Charles
VoteHub31.0%
VoteHub
Polling average31.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg39.8%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average39.8%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 8.8 pt below our average
Rick Bennett
VoteHub8.0%
VoteHub
Polling average8.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg8.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average8.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 4 polls (through Jun 27, 2026): Hannah Pingree 52.7%, Nirav Shah 47.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 4 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 1,003 · LV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 53 · 42 |
| Jun 29 | Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 608 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 50 · 36 |
| Jun 26 | Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research+1For · Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,003 · RV | R-LEAN | — | +5.2d lean | 53 · 42 |
| Jun 25 | New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena UniversityFor · Portland Press Herald / Siena University | 608 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 50 · 36 |
Endorsements · 22 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet21
1
Endorsements tracked
Hannah Pingree21 · 95%
Robert Charles1 · 5%
Total22
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DHannah Pingree21 endorsers
Most notable · Eloise Vitelli · former majority leader of the Maine Senate (2021–2024) from the 24th district (2013–2014, 2016–2024)
Elected officials14
Federal 0State 10Local 0
Elected officials · 14
- Eloise Vitelli · former majority leader of the Maine Senate (2021–2024) from the 24th district (2013–2014, 2016–2024)
- Matt Moonen · majority leader of the Maine House of Representatives (2018–2020, 2024–present) from the 17th district (2022–present) and 38th district (2012–2020)
- Mark Eves · former speaker of the Maine House of Representatives (2012–2016) from the 6th district (2008–2016)
- Ryan Fecteau · speaker of the Maine House of Representatives (2020–2022, 2024–present) from the 132nd district (2014–2022, 2024–present)
- Abigail Spanberger · governor of Virginia (2026–present)
- Janet Mills · governor of Maine (2019–present)
- Lynn Bromley · former state senator from the 7th district (2000–2008)
- Aaron Frey · Maine attorney general (2019–present)
- Shenna Bellows · candidate for governor in 2026, Maine secretary of state (2021–present)
- Linda Sanborn · former state senator (2018–2020)
- Troy Jackson · candidate for governor in 2026, former President of the Maine Senate (2018–2024)
- Brian Hubbell · former state representative from the 135th district (2012–2020)
- Denise Tepler · state senator for the 24th district (2024–present)
- Drew Gattine · state representative from the 34th district (2012–2020) and 126th district (2022–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- EMILYs List
- Maine Conservation Voters
- Sierra Club · of Maine
- Vote Mama
Celebrity3
Celebrity · 3
- Graham Platner · Sullivan harbor master, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2026
- Jeanne Lambrew · former deputy director of the White House Office of Health Reform (2009–2011) and commissioner of the Maine Department of Health and Human Services (2019–2024)
- Stephen King · author
RRobert Charles1 endorser
Most notable · Newt Gingrich · former speaker of the House (1995–1999) from GA-06 (1979–1999)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Newt Gingrich · former speaker of the House (1995–1999) from GA-06 (1979–1999)
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D2
Likely D · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Lean D2
Lean D · 2 raters
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Likely DInside Elections
Likely DRealClearPolitics
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
102 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles102
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.06
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.06
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 8%
Neutral 90%
R 2%
10% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets8%
Neutral90%
R-leaning outlets2%
10% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
Maine's Senate primary election results: Graham Platner declared winner in Democratic primary
W
Fox News poll: Susan Collins leads Graham Platner, Bobby Charles behind Hannah Pingree
B
Poll shows Hannah Pingree with comfortable lead in Maine governor’s race
P
Here’s where Maine’s candidates for governor stand on key issues
W
Poll shows Pingree with lead in Maine governor’s race
M
Poll of Maine governor's race gives Hannah Pingree comfortable lead over Bobby Charles
N
First Poll of Maine Governor’s Race Shows Democrat With Wide Lead
P
Hannah Pingree is the heavy favorite in Maine governor’s race, Times/Press Herald/Siena poll finds
M
A Small Island's Influence Shaped Hannah Pingree
N
Bobby Charles challenges other gubernatorial candidates not to take money from Augusta lobbyists, CMP or AI data center groups
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified4 / 4deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements69 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks