| 2/27/2026 | Upswing Research | 1.00 | L | 403 | ±4.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
72d old Poll was fielded 72 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 54 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Jordan Wood 45.0 · Paul LePage 52.0 | pollarch |
| 2/16/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 520 | — | LV | 🟡83d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
83d old Poll was fielded 83 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Joe Baldacci 47.0 · Paul LePage 48.0 | pollarch |
| 2/16/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 521 | — | LV | 🟡83d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
83d old Poll was fielded 83 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Matt Dunlap 46.0 · Paul LePage 47.0 | pollarch |
| 2/16/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 521 | — | LV | 🟡83d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
83d old Poll was fielded 83 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Jordan Wood 44.0 · Paul LePage 48.0 | pollarch |
| 12/7/2025 | Pan Atlantic Research | 1.00 | — | 387 | ±5.1 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+4- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
n=387 Sample size of 387 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.0pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
154d old Poll was fielded 154 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 7 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Joe Baldacci 43.0 · Paul LePage 44.0 | pollarch |
| 10/21/2025 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 546 | — | LV | 🟡201d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+2- 🟡
201d old Poll was fielded 201 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Jared Golden 44.0 · Paul LePage 49.0 | pollarch |
| 6/23/2025 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 394 | ±4.9 | unknown | 🟡n=394🟡321d old+2- 🟡
n=394 Sample size of 394 respondents implies a margin of error around ±4.9pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
321d old Poll was fielded 321 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Jared Golden 47.0 · Paul LePage 50.0 | pollarch |
| 6/10/2025 | The Mellman Group | 1.00 | — | 400 | ±4.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+2- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
334d old Poll was fielded 334 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Matt Dunlap 37.0 · Paul LePage 47.0 | pollarch |
| 6/10/2025 | The Mellman Group | 1.00 | — | 400 | ±4.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+2- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
334d old Poll was fielded 334 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Jared Golden 44.0 · Paul LePage 43.0 | pollarch |
| 4/15/2025 | Ragnar Research Partners | 1.00 | R | 400 | ±4.9 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
390d old Poll was fielded 390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 80 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Jared Golden 43.0 · Paul LePage 48.0 | pollarch |