Races · house · 2026 · Maine
house · open seat
Matt Dunlap vs Paul LePage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 31d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedTilt R · model 71% R
Polling average rates this race Tilt R (R+1.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+7.1 with an 80% CI ranging from R+23.2 (10th pctile) to D+9.0 (90th pctile), giving R a 71% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.7% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Polling momentum is moving toward D at +6.3pp/wk over the 90d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 92/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · tilt-r · low-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
92
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement45
9.1pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution45 / 100
Measured9.1pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +7.1
80% CI: R +23.2 → D +9.0 · win prob 29%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 3 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +2.0
80% CI R +1.9 → D +8.8
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +2.4
80% CI R +4.1 → R +0.7
CV MAE 1.32
consensusMarket-implied
R +2.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Apr 29, 2026 · latest co/efficient
Paul LePage
VoteHub50.0%
VoteHub
Polling average50.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg42.8%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average42.8%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 7.2 pt above our average
Matt Dunlap
VoteHub40.0%
VoteHub
Polling average40.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg42.7%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average42.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 2.7 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Apr 29, 2026): Paul LePage 50.0%, Matt Dunlap 40.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 26 | co/efficient+1For · efficient (R) | 918 · LV | R-LEAN | R +5.413 tracked | -3.4r lean | 40 · 50 |
| Feb 15, 26 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 521 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 46 · 47 |
| Jun 9, 25 | The Mellman Group+1For · Internal D-aligned | 400 · LV | D-LEAN | — | — | 37 · 47 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet7
Endorsements tracked
Matt Dunlap0 · 0%
Paul LePage7 · 100%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RPaul LePage7 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 5State 1Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Steve Scalise · House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)
- Tom Emmer · House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)
- Mike Johnson · speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)
- Richard Hudson · NC-09 (2013–present)
- Austin Theriault · former HD-01 (2022–2024) and nominee for this district in 2024
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- NRCC · MAGA Majority
DMatt Dunlap0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-01Matt DunlapH6ME02171 ↗
Receipts
$931.5K
Disburse
$838.0K
Cash on hand
$93.5K
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 3 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Paul LePageH6ME02148 ↗
Receipts
$2.0M
Disburse
$743.3K
Cash on hand
$1.2M
Debts
$0
Cumulative receipts · 5 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$107.4K
D side
$100.8K · 94%
R side
$6.6K · 6%
Top spender
National Nurses Uni…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Nurses United for Patient Protection super pac · boosts D
| D | $50.6K | 47% | for Matt Dunlap |
| REAL CHANGE PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $50.2K | 47% | for Matt Dunlap |
| THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CONSTITUTIONAL LIBERTY other · boosts R
| R | $6.6K | 6% | for Paul LePage |
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R2
Lean R · 2 raters
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
- Split Ticket · Jun 28
Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RSplit Ticket
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
90 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles90
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.18 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift +0.18 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
Top Democrats pull Graham Platner endorsements, call on him to end Maine Senate campaign
N
Leading Maine Democrats call on Graham Platner to withdraw from US Senate race amid sexual assault accusation
B
Maine and national Democrats call on Graham Platner to leave US Senate race
S
Graham Platner wins Maine Democratic primary, will face GOP Sen. Susan Collins
1
Maine candidate for Congress says he’ll donate campaign contributions from Eric Swalwell amid sex scandal
W
Maine gubernatorial primary election results: Charles wins GOP race, Pingree wins Democratic race
W
Maine's CD2 primary election results: Matt Dunlap, Paul LePage to square off for Golden's seat
N
Graham Platner Wins Primary in Maine, Setting Up a Key Senate Fight
B
The Supreme Court just flooded more money into Maine’s Senate race
B
Poll shows Hannah Pingree with comfortable lead in Maine governor’s race
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements36 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks