Democratic primary · June 9, 2026
Maine house Democratic primary
Field of 0 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
57
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (15.2pp).
Forecast CI width51
15.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution51 / 100
Measured15.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity63
3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution63 / 100
Measured3 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 6 polls + fundamentals1Joe Baldacci
2Jordan Wood
3Matthew Dunlap
4Paige Loud
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 26 | SurveyUSA | 190 · LV | — |
| May 24, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 244 · LV | — |
| May 17, 26 | Pan Atlantic Research | 169 · LV | — |
| Mar 7, 26 | Tulchin Research | 400 · LV | — |
| Mar 1, 26 | Pan Atlantic Research | 144 · LV | — |
| Dec 6, 25 | Pan Atlantic Research | 145 · LV | — |
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-01Joe BaldacciH6ME02213 ↗
Raised
$530K
Cash on hand
$128K
Cumulative receipts · 2 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Matt DunlapH6ME02171 ↗
Raised
$931K
Cash on hand
$93K
Cumulative receipts · 3 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
Matthew DunlapH6ME02171 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Cumulative receipts · 3 filings
Top industries
No industry data.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
90 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles90
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.18 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift +0.18 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
W
Top Democrats pull Graham Platner endorsements, call on him to end Maine Senate campaign
N
Leading Maine Democrats call on Graham Platner to withdraw from US Senate race amid sexual assault accusation
B
Maine and national Democrats call on Graham Platner to leave US Senate race
S
Graham Platner wins Maine Democratic primary, will face GOP Sen. Susan Collins
1
Maine candidate for Congress says he’ll donate campaign contributions from Eric Swalwell amid sex scandal
W
Maine gubernatorial primary election results: Charles wins GOP race, Pingree wins Democratic race
W
Maine's CD2 primary election results: Matt Dunlap, Paul LePage to square off for Golden's seat
N
Graham Platner Wins Primary in Maine, Setting Up a Key Senate Fight
B
The Supreme Court just flooded more money into Maine’s Senate race
B
Poll shows Hannah Pingree with comfortable lead in Maine governor’s race
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements36 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks