CC BY-SA 3.0
DemocratRunning for ME-2 U.S. House · 2026
Matt Dunlap
Matthew Dunlap is an American politician from Maine who has served as the Maine state auditor since November 2022. He previously held the same position from January to October 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, Dunlap was secretary of state of Maine from January 7, 2013, to January 4, 2021, and previously from 2005 to 2011. In 2012, he sought to become his party's nominee to replace retiring Olympia Snowe, but lost in the primary to State Senator Cynthia Dill.
Born 1964 · Bar Harbor , Maine , U.S.
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04
Matthew Dunlap, Maine's state auditor since 2022, is seeking the U.S. House seat for Maine's 2nd district. Previously serving as Maine's secretary of state (2005-2011, 2013-2021) and in the state house (1996-2005), Dunlap is effectively tied with opponent Paul LePage at about 43% in polling. He has raised roughly $900,000 and faces about a 40% market-implied win probability.
42.7%
Polling average
our aggregate
38%
Win probability
market-implied
$931k
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Dunlap's money comes from.
A−
88/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — small-dollar reliance is the standout.
0 watch items
Small-dollar reliance100
60% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence96
1% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding67
33% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure90
$101k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
1996Member of the Maine House of Representatives
1996–2005
2005Secretary of State of Maine
2005–2011
2013Secretary of State of Maine
2013–2021
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$931k
Raised
$838k
Spent
$93k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
60% small (<$200)39% large indiv.1% PAC
67% in-state · 33% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-20 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Dunlap is running in.
ME · HOUSE · 2026tilt r
Dunlap (D) vs Paul LePage (R)
42.7%−0.1 LePage42.8%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Dunlap and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: AESYLVES · CC BY-SA 3.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
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newscentermaine.com · 2026-07-06
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bangordailynews.com · 2026-07-06
Maine and national Democrats call on Graham Platner to leave US Senate race
scrippsnews.com · 2026-07-03
Graham Platner wins Maine Democratic primary, will face GOP Sen. Susan Collins
Democrat · ME-2 U.S. House
Matt Dunlap
Matthew Dunlap is an American politician from Maine who has served as the Maine state auditor since November 2022. He previously held the same position from January to October 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, Dunlap was secretary of state of Maine from January 7, 2013, to January 4, 2021, and previously from 2005 to 2011. In 2012, he sought to become his party's nominee to replace retiring Olympia Snowe, but lost in the primary to State Senator Cynthia Dill.
Where Dunlap standsRace →
Dunlap 42.7%Paul LePage 42.8%
Market · wins
38¢
42.7%
Poll avg
38%
Win prob
$931k
Raised
In brief
AI · verified vs data · 2026-07-04Matthew Dunlap, Maine's state auditor since 2022, is seeking the U.S. House seat for Maine's 2nd district. Previously serving as Maine's secretary of state (2005-2011, 2013-2021) and in the state house (1996-2005), Dunlap is effectively tied with opponent Paul LePage at about 43% in polling. He has raised roughly $900,000 and faces about a 40% market-implied win probability.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
1996Member of the Maine House of Representatives
1996–2005
2005Secretary of State of Maine
2005–2011
2013Secretary of State of Maine
2013–2021
Public favorability
—
No favorability data
This candidate isn't tracked by YouGov's public-figure panel, and no published state polling on their favorability was found.
Independence scorecard
Who Dunlap's money comes from.
A−
88/100
Independence index
Funding mix leans independent — small-dollar reliance is the standout.
0 watch items
Small-dollar reliance100
60% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence96
1% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding67
33% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure90
$101k in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$931k
Raised
$838k
Spent
$93k
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
60% small (<$200)39% large indiv.1% PAC
67% in-state · 33% out-of-state (itemized)
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-05-20 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: AESYLVES · CC BY-SA 3.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)