Pollster · 59 of 1769
Saint Anselm College
Polls scored
5
Mean error
4.5 pt
Signed bias
R+1.98
Aggregation weight
0.81
Pollster vs prediction market
From 72 race-polls · 16 matched marketsPre-poll P(D) (avg)
78.1%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
+0.0 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+5.6 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Saint Anselm College's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components74
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 28 graded races, Saint Anselm College's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.0pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+1.0pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
5.3pp
N graded
28
Recent activity
Total all time
72
Last 30d
15
Last 90d
15
Last 180d
31
Recent polls
- 6/29/2026New Hampshire · Governor · 2026Warmington 37.0 · Ayotte 45.0
- 6/29/2026New Hampshire · Senate · 2026Sununu 59.0 · Brown 21.0
- 6/29/2026New Hampshire · Senate · 2026Pappas 62.0 · Manzur 20.0
- 6/29/2026New Hampshire · Senate · 2026Pappas 48.0 · Brown 36.0
- 6/29/2026New Hampshire · Senate · 2026Pappas 47.0 · Sununu 41.0
- 6/24/2026New Hampshire · Governor · 2026Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Cinde Warmington 37.0
- 6/24/2026NH-1 · House · 2026Carleigh Beriont 3.0 · Sarah Chadzynski 1.0 · Heath Howard 9.0 · Stefany Shaheen 22.0 · Maura Sullivan 15.0 · Christian Urrutia 3.0
- 6/24/2026NH-1 · House · 2026Melissa Bailey 2.0 · Brian Cole 8.0 · Anthony DiLorenzo 13.0 · Holly Noveletsky 16.0
- 6/24/2026NH-2 · House · 2026Maggie Goodlander 76.0 · Paige Beauchemin 9.0
- 6/24/2026NH-2 · House · 2026Lily Tang Williams 56.0 · Victor Orlando 7.0