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Races · house · 2026 · New Hampshire
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house · open seat

Carleigh Beriont vs Melissa Bailey

← Nebraska houseNew Hampshire house →
Likely DD +8.4 forecast · 3 months 27 days to election· 0 polls · 4 marketsLast poll 12d agoMarkets 11h agoRating today
Live model · win probabilityupdated 11h ago · poliagg-v34
75% Beriont (D)
25% Bailey (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Predicted final margin D +8.4 · 80% CI R+7.7 → D+24.5 · 3 months 27 days to election
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
3.8%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
D 87¢
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Safe D · model 75% D · market gap 13pp

With limited polling, prediction markets imply Safe D (D win prob 88%, market-derived).

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+8.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+7.7 (10th pctile) to D+24.5 (90th pctile), giving D a 75% chance of winning.

Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.

Uncertainty score: 88/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.

Model and market disagree: Model says D wins at 75%, market says 88% — 13pp gap.

CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high · market-disagreement-medium
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
88
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Inter-model disagreement32
6.3pp across models
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +8.4
80% CI: R +7.7 → D +24.5 · win prob 75%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
Polls used0
Days to election118
Residual σ12.56pt
Generated7/7/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +7.1
80% CI D +2.7 → D +13.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +13.4
80% CI D +11.4 → D +15.5
CV MAE 1.59
consensusMarket-implied
D +10.8
no interval
market-implied

Prediction markets

Consensus · D 87¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
Cross-platform price · history
50¢60¢70¢80¢90¢100¢370 DAYS · D YES PRICENOWJul 2Jul 7
Per-platform · current
PlatformD YESR YES7d ΔVolvs cons
Polymarket
“Will the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat?”
87¢13¢+0¢—-1
Kalshi
“NH-01 House winner?”
88¢10¢+0¢$0K+1

Endorsements · 0 total

Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet
DCarleigh Beriont0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMelissa Bailey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-01
Carleigh BeriontOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$385.0K
Disburse
$297.3K
Cash on hand
$87.7K
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Melissa BaileyOWN COMMITTEE
Receipts
$192.7K
Disburse
$72.9K
Cash on hand
$119.8K
Debts
$126.5K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$185.2K
D side
$185.2K · 100%
R side
$0 · 0%
Top spender
—
For / against split
For Sullivan $185.2K

Editorial ratings · 4 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D2
Lean D2
Cook Political Report
Likely D
Jun 17
Inside Elections
Lean D
Jun 24
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Jun 8
Split Ticket
Likely D
Jun 24

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jun 14, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 4, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 5, 2026Likely Dmodel
May 3, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 0deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements49 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks