Republican primary · September 8, 2026
New Hampshire house Republican primary
Field of 5 Republican candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
74
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (18.2pp).
Forecast CI width61
18.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution61 / 100
Measured18.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Republican primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals1Anthony DiLorenzoChallenger
2Holly NoveletskyChallenger
3Chris Bright
4Brian ColeBrian Cole may refer to:Brian Cole (musician) (1942–1972), American musician with The Association B. J. Cole, English pedal steel guitarist …
5Melissa BaileyMelissa Farley is an American clinical psychologist, researcher and radical feminist anti-pornography and anti-prostitution activist. Farley…
6Elizabeth GirardChallenger
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Bailey | Cole | DiLorenzo | Noveletsky | Girard | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 377 · RV | 2 | 8 | 13 | 16 | — | +3 |
| Jan 18, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 967 · LV | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 2 | +5 |
| Nov 18, 25 | Saint Anselm College | 521 · RV | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | +0 |
| Sep 22, 25 | University of New Hampshire | 256 · LV | 0 | 5 | — | 10 | — | +5 |
| Aug 26, 25 | Saint Anselm College | 427 · RV | 3 | 5 | — | — | — | +2 |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yetAnthony DiLorenzo · 2
RAnthony DiLorenzo2 endorsers
Most notable · Stephen Stepanek · former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party (2019–2023)
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Stephen Stepanek · former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party (2019–2023)
- Turning Point Action
RMelissa Bailey0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBrian Cole0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RHolly Noveletsky0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RElizabeth Girard0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-01No FEC committee filings yet for the Republican primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements49 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks