Democratic primary · September 8, 2026
New Hampshire house Democratic primary
Field of 6 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 22d ago, but only 1 poll has landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
74
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (18.2pp).
Forecast CI width61
18.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution61 / 100
Measured18.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 4 polls + fundamentals1Stefany ShaheenThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the two U.S. represent…
2Maura SullivanMaura C. Sullivan is an American politician and former government official. Sullivan previously served as an official in the Obama administr…
3Heath HowardHeath J. Howard is an American politician. He currently serves as a member of the New Hampshire House of Representatives representing Straff…
4Christian UrrutiaThe 2026 United States House of Representatives elections in New Hampshire will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the two U.S. represent…
5Carleigh BeriontChallenger
6Sarah ChadzynskiChallenger
All polls · 5 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Beriont | Chadzynski | Howard | Shaheen | Sullivan | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 398 · RV | 3 | 1 | 9 | 22 | 15 | +7 |
| Jan 18, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 893 · LV | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 8 | +23 |
| Nov 18, 25 | Saint Anselm College | 501 · RV | 1 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 6 | +20 |
| Sep 22, 25 | University of New Hampshire | 236 · LV | 2 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 8 | +21 |
| Aug 26, 25 | Saint Anselm College | 413 · RV | 2 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 9 | +14 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 44 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yetHeath Howard · 19Maura Sullivan · 14Stefany Shaheen · 5Christian Urrutia · 5Sarah Chadzynski · 1
DHeath Howard19 endorsers
Most notable · Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
Organizations13
Organizations · 13
- Carlos Del Toro · former U.S. Secretary of the Navy (2021–2025)
- Center for Freethought Equality
- Christine Wormuth · former U.S. Secretary of the Army (2021–2025)
- Democratic Socialists of America · c Socialists of America
- Frank Kendall III · former U.S. Secretary of the Air Force (2021–2025)
- IBEW · Local 104
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Progressive Victory
- Track AIPAC
- Vote Common Good
- Vote Mama
- VoteVets
- With Honor Fund
Elected officials4
Federal 3State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 4
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-6 (2019–present)
- Seth Moulton · MA-6 (2015–present)
- Executive Councilor · Executive Councilor from the 4th district (1997–1999)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Paul Eaton · former deputy chief of staff for the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command
Other1
Other · 1
- Democratic Majority for Israel
DMaura Sullivan14 endorsers
Most notable · Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
Elected officials7
Federal 6State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 7
- Chris Deluzio · PA-17 (2023–present)
- Jason Crow · CO-6 (2019–present)
- Seth Moulton · MA-6 (2015–present)
- Carlos Del Toro · former U.S. Secretary of the Navy (2021–2025)
- Christine Wormuth · former U.S. Secretary of the Army (2021–2025)
- Executive Councilor · Executive Councilor from the 4th district (1997–1999)
- Frank Kendall III · former U.S. Secretary of the Air Force (2021–2025)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Vote Mama
- VoteVets
- With Honor Fund
Other2
Other · 2
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- George Charles Bruno · former U.S. Ambassador to Belize (1994–1997)
Celebrity1
Celebrity · 1
- Paul Eaton · former deputy chief of staff for the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command
DStefany Shaheen5 endorsers
Most notable · John Lynch · former governor of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
Elected officials4
Federal 0State 3Local 1
Elected officials · 4
- John Lynch · former governor of New Hampshire (2005–2013)
- Jon Morgan · former state senator from the 23rd district (2018–2020)
- Tom Sherman · former state senator from the 24th district (2018–2022)
- mayor · arrier, mayor of Dover (2020–present)
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- Teamsters · Local 633
DChristian Urrutia5 endorsers
Most notable · 350 New Hampshire Action
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- 350 New Hampshire Action
- Latino Victory
- New Hampshire House Progressive Caucus
- New Hampshire Youth Movement
Other1
Other · 1
- Andru Volinsky · former Executive Councilor from the 2nd district (2017–2021)
DSarah Chadzynski1 endorser
Most notable · Adam Kinzinger · former IL-16 (2011–2023) (Republican)
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Adam Kinzinger · former IL-16 (2011–2023) (Republican)
DCarleigh Beriont0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-01Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 5deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-01
Endorsements49 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks