Democratic primary · September 8, 2026
New Hampshire house Democratic primary
Field of 1 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
64
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (12.1pp).
Forecast CI width40
12.1pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution40 / 100
Measured12.1pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · high confidence · 3 polls + fundamentals1Maggie GoodlanderMargaret Vivian Goodlander is an American politician, lawyer, and former naval officer who has served as the U.S. representative from New Ha…
2Paige Beauchemin
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 3 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Goodlander | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 26 | Saint Anselm College | 412 · RV | 76 | — |
| Jan 18, 26 | University of New Hampshire | 893 · LV | 66 | — |
| Nov 18, 25 | Saint Anselm College | 515 · RV | 62 | — |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetMaggie Goodlander · 7
DMaggie Goodlander7 endorsers
Most notable · Chris Pappas · NH-01 (2019–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AIPAC
- End Citizens United
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Chris Pappas · NH-01 (2019–present)
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
4 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
4 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles4
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.50
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.67 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.50
Week-over-weekshift +0.67 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 50%
Neutral 50%
50% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets50%
Neutral50%
R-leaning outlets0%
50% of outlets classified by editorial lean
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 3deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage4 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks