Races · house · 2026 · NH

house · open seat

Maggie Goodlander vs Lily Tang Williams

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Likely D D +10.3 · 176 days to election · 5 polls · 0 markets Last poll 53d ago Rating 1d ago

Where this race stands

Verified

Likely D · model 72% D

likely-d · uncertainty-high

Forecast · poliagg-v8

Predicted final margin

D +8.2

80% CI: R +9.3 → D +25.7 · win prob 72%

R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30

Quality · inputs

Data quality · medium

Polls used	5
Days to election	181
Residual σ	13.66pt
Generated	5/6/2026

▼ Compare with other models1 models

poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)

D +8.2

80% CI R +9.3 → D +25.7

CV MAE 13.66

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 5 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:5 of 5 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
3/18/2026	Saint Anselm College	0.81	—(R+1.7)	739	±3.6	RV	4 scored pollsregistered voters+1 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Goodlander 48.0 · Lily Tang Williams 36.0	poll arch
1/19/2026	University of New Hampshire	1.00	—(R+0.9)	1093	±3.0	LV	111d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 111d old Poll was fielded 111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.	Maggie Goodlander 54.0 · Lily Tang Williams 40.0	poll arch
11/19/2025	Saint Anselm College	0.81	—(R+1.7)	1102	±3.0	RV	4 scored polls172d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 172d old Poll was fielded 172 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Goodlander 40.0 · Lily Tang Williams 35.0	poll arch
9/23/2025	University of New Hampshire	1.00	—(R+0.9)	659	±4.3	LV	229d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 229d old Poll was fielded 229 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.	Maggie Goodlander 51.0 · Lily Tang Williams 39.0	poll arch
8/27/2025	Saint Anselm College	0.81	—(R+1.7)	881	±3.3	RV	4 scored polls256d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 256d old Poll was fielded 256 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Maggie Goodlander 49.0 · Lily Tang Williams 31.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	Feb 6	+10.3	+9.0	+1.3
Inside Elections	Likely D	Mar 7	+10.3	+9.0	+1.3
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	Jul 15	+10.3	+9.0	+1.3

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 8 weeks ago (3/18/2026) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (2 changes)