Races · house · 2026 · New Hampshire
house · open seat
Maggie Goodlander vs Lily Tang Williams
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe D · model 77% D
Polling average rates this race Safe D (D+15.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+9.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.8 (10th pctile) to D+25.4 (90th pctile), giving D a 77% chance of winning.
Tipping-point probability: 3.8% of simulations see this race as decisive for chamber control.
Uncertainty score: 85/100 (high). Key drivers: only 0-1 recent polls; wide forecast CI (32.2pp). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · safe-d · low-tipping · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
85
High uncertainty
Main driver: only 0-1 recent polls.
Forecast CI width100
32.2pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution100 / 100
Measured32.2pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement29
5.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution29 / 100
Measured5.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity88
1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution88 / 100
Measured1 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +9.3
80% CI: R +6.8 → D +25.4 · win prob 77%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 12.56pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +10.4
80% CI D +7.9 → D +10.6
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +15.1
80% CI D +13.2 → D +17.0
CV MAE 1.50
consensusMarket-implied
D +10.8
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 87¢1 platformupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 37 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 87% · polls 51%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Republican Party win the NH-02 House seat?” | 87¢ | 12¢ | +0¢ | — | +0 |
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
1 polls · through Jun 25, 2026 · latest Saint Anselm
Maggie Goodlander
VoteHub50.0%
VoteHub
Polling average50.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg50.9%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average50.9%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.9 pt below our average
Lily Tang Williams
VoteHub31.0%
VoteHub
Polling average31.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg30.1%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average30.1%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.9 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 1 polls (through Jun 25, 2026): Maggie Goodlander 50.0%, Lily Tang Williams 31.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 26 | Saint Anselm CollegeFor · Saint Anselm College | 802 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 50 · 31 |
| Mar 17, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 739 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 48 · 36 |
| Jan 18, 26 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 1,093 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 54 · 40 |
| Nov 18, 25 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 1,102 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 40 · 35 |
| Sep 22, 25 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 659 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 51 · 39 |
| Aug 26, 25 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 881 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 49 · 31 |
Endorsements · 7 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet7
Endorsements tracked
Maggie Goodlander7 · 100%
Lily Tang Williams0 · 0%
Total7
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DMaggie Goodlander7 endorsers
Most notable · Chris Pappas · NH-01 (2019–present)
Organizations6
Organizations · 6
- AIPAC
- End Citizens United
- J Street
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
Elected officials1
Federal 1State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 1
- Chris Pappas · NH-01 (2019–present)
RLily Tang Williams0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Maggie Goodlander
Receipts
$3.0M
Disburse
$984.2K
Cash on hand
$2.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Lily Tang Williams
Receipts
$869.5K
Disburse
$425.0K
Cash on hand
$573.9K
Debts
$120.0K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D1
Safe D · 1 rater
- Split Ticket · Jun 24
Likely D3
Likely D · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · Jun 17
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 8
Cook Political Report
Likely DInside Elections
Likely DSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely DSplit Ticket
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
4 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
4 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles4
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.50
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.67 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.50
Week-over-weekshift +0.67 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 50%
Neutral 50%
50% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets50%
Neutral50%
R-leaning outlets0%
50% of outlets classified by editorial lean
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified6 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested1 platformupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements10 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage4 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks