| 3/18/2026 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1491 | ±2.5 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Kelly Ayotte 45.0 · Jon Kiper 31.0 | pollarch |
| 3/18/2026 | Saint Anselm College | 0.81 | —(R+1.7) | 1491 | ±2.5 | RV | 🟡4 scored polls⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 20 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Kelly Ayotte 46.0 · Cinde Warmington 39.0 | pollarch |
| 1/29/2026 | yes. every kid. | 1.00 | — | 563 | ±4.1 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡101d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
101d old Poll was fielded 101 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kelly Ayotte 47.0 · Jon Kiper 37.0 | pollarch |
| 1/19/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 2053 | ±2.1 | LV | 🟡111d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+4- 🟡
111d old Poll was fielded 111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt. - 🔵
n=2,053 Sample size of 2,053 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Kelly Ayotte 50.0 · Jon Kiper 39.0 | pollarch |
| 1/19/2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 2053 | ±2.1 | LV | 🟡111d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+4- 🟡
111d old Poll was fielded 111 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt. - 🔵
n=2,053 Sample size of 2,053 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical.
| Kelly Ayotte 49.0 · Deaglan McEachern 41.0 | pollarch |
| 10/13/2025 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1034 | ±3.1 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R)🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R) This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (efficient (R)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
209d old Poll was fielded 209 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kelly Ayotte 43.0 | pollarch |
| 4/21/2025 | University of New Hampshire | 1.00 | —(R+0.9) | 1117 | ±2.9 | LV | 🟡384d old🟡high variance vs editorial consensus+3- 🟡
384d old Poll was fielded 384 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 50 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
bias R+0.9pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.9pt.
| Kelly Ayotte 47.0 · Cinde Warmington 39.0 | pollarch |