Democratic primary · September 8, 2026
New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary
Field of 2 Democratic candidates competing for the party's nomination. Winner advances to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Democratic primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
82
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide vote-share CI (19.3pp).
Forecast CI width64
19.3pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution64 / 100
Measured19.3pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity100
0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution100 / 100
Measured0 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · Democratic primary
primary-struct-v1 · medium confidence · 2 polls + fundamentals1Cinde WarmingtonCinde Warmington (born December 7, 1957) is an American attorney, politician, and former lobbyist. As a Democrat , she served as a member of…
2Jon KiperThe 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of the U.S. state of New Hampshire. Th…
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 2 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Warmington | Kiper | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22 | Saint Anselm College | 691 · RV | 40 | 13 | +27 |
| Mar 17 | Saint Anselm College | 691 · RV | 40 | 13 | +27 |
Endorsements · Democratic primary · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yetDCinde Warmington0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DJon Kiper0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing —No FEC committee filings yet for the Democratic primary candidates. Most primary candidates file quarterly; if the primary is recent the data may take a few weeks to appear.
In the news
7 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
7 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles7
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
New Hampshire U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
Y
Polls shows New Hampshire governor race in single digits
G
Trump’s approval hits a new low in NH. That’s a problem for Kelly Ayotte.
W
Poll shows new potential presidential candidates surging in New Hampshire
W
Poll shows changing dynamics in New Hampshire statewide races
V
New Hampshire primary races heat up
C
Cinde Warmington may be Democrats’ only choice for governor. Do they want her?
Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 2deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage7 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks