Races · Governor · 2026 · New Hampshire
Governor · open seat · provisional matchup
Democrat vs Kelly Ayotte
Likely matchup — the Democratic nominee isn't settled. Shown as a provisional party matchup, not confirmed nominees.
Info · primary pending
The Democratic nominee hasn't been chosen yet
3 Democratic candidates remain. See the democratic primary →
Primary September 8, 2026.
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 94% R
Polling average rates this race Likely R (R+7.0, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+13.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+24.6 (10th pctile) to R+2.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 94% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 28.6% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward R at 0.6pp/wk over the 30d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 61/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); models disagree by 7.9pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-r · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
61
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement40
7.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution40 / 100
Measured7.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion15
1.5pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution15 / 100
Measured1.5pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.6
80% CI: R +24.6 → R +2.6 · win prob 6%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 16 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +8.3
80% CI R +11.5 → D +0.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +5.7
80% CI R +7.3 → R +4.1
CV MAE 1.26
consensusMarket-implied
R +6.9
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 22¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 16 points less bullish on D than polling. Markets 22% · polls 39%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
2 polls · through Jun 25, 2026 · latest Saint Anselm
Kelly Ayotte
VoteHub44.5%
VoteHub
Polling average44.5%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg44.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average44.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt above our average
Cinde Warmington
VoteHub38.0%
VoteHub
Polling average38.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
no matching candidate in our average
VoteHub's independent average across 2 polls (through Jun 25, 2026): Kelly Ayotte 44.5%, Cinde Warmington 38.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 16 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire+1 | 2,232 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 39 · 44 |
| Jun 29, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1 | 1,614 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 37 · 45 |
| Jun 24, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 1,614 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 37 · 45 |
| Jun 22, 26 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 2,232 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 39 · 44 |
| Apr 22, 26 | Univ. of New Hampshire+1 | 1,129 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +1.4aligned | 39 · 47 |
| Apr 20, 26 | University of New Hampshire+1For · University of New Hampshire | 1,117 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +0.912 tracked | +0.3aligned | 39 · 47 |
| Mar 22, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 1,491 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 39 · 46 |
| Mar 22, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 1,491 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 31 · 45 |
| Mar 17, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 1,491 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 31 · 45 |
| Mar 17, 26 | Saint Anselm College+1For · Saint Anselm College | 1,491 · RV | NEUTRAL | R +1.74 tracked | +1.0aligned | 39 · 46 |
Endorsements · 2 total
Source · Wikipedia · 1 candidate with no endorsements yet2
Endorsements tracked
Democrat0 · 0%
Kelly Ayotte2 · 100%
Total2
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RKelly Ayotte2 endorsers
Most notable · Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire
Organizations2
Organizations · 2
- Professional Fire Fighters of New Hampshire
- Turning Point Action
DDemocrat0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Kelly Ayotte
Receipts
$3.7M
Disburse
$1.4M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Cinde Warmington
Receipts
$606.2K
Disburse
$209.5K
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Lean R1
Lean R · 1 rater
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
Likely R2
Likely R · 2 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Safe R1
Safe R · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Likely RInside Elections
Safe RRealClearPolitics
Lean RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
7 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
7 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles7
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.14
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.20 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.14
Week-over-weekshift +0.20 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 14%
Neutral 86%
14% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets14%
Neutral86%
R-leaning outlets0%
14% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
New Hampshire U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
Y
Polls shows New Hampshire governor race in single digits
G
Trump’s approval hits a new low in NH. That’s a problem for Kelly Ayotte.
W
Poll shows new potential presidential candidates surging in New Hampshire
W
Poll shows changing dynamics in New Hampshire statewide races
V
New Hampshire primary races heat up
C
Cinde Warmington may be Democrats’ only choice for governor. Do they want her?
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified15 / 16deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage7 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks