Pollster · 262 of 1769
OH Predictive Insights
Polls scored
8
Mean error
4.2 pt
Signed bias
R+1.87
Aggregation weight
1.01
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components70
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 15 graded races, OH Predictive Insights's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.3pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+0.3pp
Median delta
+0.0pp
Std-dev
5.9pp
N graded
15
Recent activity
Total all time
65
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #12 / 36 | 4 | 3.07 pt | D+0.30 pp |
| 2018 | #21 / 25 | 3 | 5.51 pt | R+5.51 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/26/2022Nevada · Governor · 2022Steve Sisolak 45.0 · Joe Lombardo 41.0
- 10/26/2022Nevada · Senate · 2022Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 41.0
- 10/26/2022Utah · Senate · 2022Mike Lee 53.0 · Evan McMullin 34.0
- 10/25/2022Arizona · Governor · 2022Kari Lake 49.0 · Katie Hobbs 47.0
- 10/25/2022Arizona · Senate · 2022Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 46.0 · Marc Victor 3.0
- 10/5/2022Arizona · Senate · 2022Mark Kelly 46.0 · Blake Masters 33.0 · Marc Victor 15.0
- 10/5/2022Utah · Senate · 2022Mike Lee 47.0 · Evan McMullin 32.0
- 9/28/2022Nevada · Governor · 2022Steve Sisolak 42.0 · Joe Lombardo 45.0
- 9/28/2022Nevada · Senate · 2022Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 45.0
- 9/8/2022Arizona · Senate · 2022Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 35.0 · Marc Victor 6.0