Pollster · 331 of 1053
OH Predictive Insights
GRADE A− NEUTRAL LEAN
Polls scored
65
Mean error
3.9 pt
Signed bias
R+1.59
Aggregation weight
1.01
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 6 components 75
of 100 · tier · strong
Strong on the components we measure; one or two areas pull the composite below the elite threshold.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
aligned Across 15 graded races, OH Predictive Insights's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +0.3pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+0.3pp
Median delta
+0.0pp
Std-dev
5.9pp
N graded
15
Recent activity
Total all time
65
Last 30d
0
Last 90d
0
Last 180d
0
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #11 / 36 | 4 | 3.07 pt | D+0.30 pp |
| 2018 | #21 / 25 | 3 | 5.51 pt | R+5.51 pp |
Recent polls
- 10/27/2022 us-governor-2022-nv Steve Sisolak 45.0 · Joe Lombardo 41.0
- 10/27/2022 us-senate-2022-nv Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 41.0
- 10/27/2022 us-senate-2022-ut Mike Lee 53.0 · Evan McMullin 34.0
- 10/26/2022 us-governor-2022-az Kari Lake 49.0 · Katie Hobbs 47.0
- 10/26/2022 us-senate-2022-az Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 46.0 · Marc Victor 3.0
- 10/6/2022 us-senate-2022-az Mark Kelly 46.0 · Blake Masters 33.0 · Marc Victor 15.0
- 10/6/2022 us-senate-2022-ut Mike Lee 47.0 · Evan McMullin 32.0
- 9/29/2022 us-governor-2022-nv Steve Sisolak 42.0 · Joe Lombardo 45.0
- 9/29/2022 us-senate-2022-nv Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 45.0
- 9/9/2022 us-senate-2022-az Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 35.0 · Marc Victor 6.0