| 10/30/2022 | Hill Research Consultants | 1.00 | neutral | 500 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1288d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mike Lee 47.0 · Evan McMullin 46.0 | pollarch |
| 10/28/2022 | Emerson College | 1.00 | —(D+0.7) | 825 | — | LV | 🟡1290d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+3- 🟡
1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. - 🟢
accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
| Mike Lee 49.0 · Evan McMullin 39.0 | pollarch |
| 10/27/2022 | OH Predictive Insights | 1.01 | —(R+1.6) | 600 | — | LV | 🟡1291d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike Lee 53.0 · Evan McMullin 34.0 | pollarch |
| 10/11/2022 | Hill Research Consultants | 1.00 | neutral | 500 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1307d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mike Lee 43.0 · Evan McMullin 49.0 | pollarch |
| 10/11/2022 | Kurt Jetta | 1.00 | neutral | 406 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1307d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Mike Lee 38.0 · Evan McMullin 37.0 | pollarch |
| 10/6/2022 | OH Predictive Insights | 1.01 | —(R+1.6) | 483 | — | LV | 🟡1312d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1312d old Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike Lee 47.0 · Evan McMullin 32.0 | pollarch |
| 10/6/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 801 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1312d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1312d old Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Mike Lee 41.0 · Evan McMullin 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/21/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 815 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1327d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1327d old Poll was fielded 1327 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Mike Lee 36.0 · Evan McMullin 34.0 | pollarch |
| 9/13/2022 | Lighthouse Research | 1.00 | — | 509 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1335d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1335d old Poll was fielded 1335 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mike Lee 48.0 · Evan McMullin 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/8/2022 | Kurt Jetta | 1.00 | neutral | 474 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1340d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1340d old Poll was fielded 1340 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Mike Lee 40.0 · Evan McMullin 37.0 | pollarch |
| 9/1/2022 | Impact Research | 1.00 | L | 800 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1347d old+4- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1347d old Poll was fielded 1347 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
uncorrelated with editorial consensus Across 30 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: The Washington Post Commissioned by The Washington Post, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Mike Lee 46.0 · Evan McMullin 47.0 | pollarch |
| 8/5/2022 | WPA Intelligence | 1.00 | R | 500 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1374d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1374d old Poll was fielded 1374 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mike Lee 50.0 · Evan McMullin 32.0 | pollarch |
| 7/18/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 801 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1392d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1392d old Poll was fielded 1392 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: And the latest Deseret News Commissioned by And the latest Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Mike Lee 41.0 · Evan McMullin 36.0 | pollarch |
| 7/14/2022 | WPA Intelligence | 1.00 | R | 529 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1396d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1396d old Poll was fielded 1396 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Mike Lee 49.0 · Evan McMullin 35.0 | pollarch |
| 7/12/2022 | Kurt Jetta | 1.00 | neutral | 561 | — | A | 🟡no scored polls🟡adult sample+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1398d old Poll was fielded 1398 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
| Mike Lee 43.0 · Evan McMullin 32.0 | pollarch |
| 6/16/2022 | WPA Intelligence | 1.00 | R | 300 | — | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡n=300+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
n=300 Sample size of 300 respondents implies a margin of error around ±5.7pt — wider than typical. - 🟡
1424d old Poll was fielded 1424 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mike Lee 52.0 · Evan McMullin 33.0 | pollarch |
| 6/15/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 803 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1425d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1425d old Poll was fielded 1425 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Mike Lee 41.0 · Evan McMullin 35.0 | pollarch |
| 6/15/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 803 | — | RV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 60.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1425d old Poll was fielded 1425 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Becky Edwards 31.0 · Evan McMullin 29.0 | pollarch |
| 6/15/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 803 | — | RV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 58.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1425d old Poll was fielded 1425 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Ally Isom 24.0 · Evan McMullin 34.0 | pollarch |
| 6/4/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 810 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1436d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1436d old Poll was fielded 1436 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Mike Lee 41.0 · Evan McMullin 37.0 | pollarch |
| 6/4/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 810 | — | RV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 57.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1436d old Poll was fielded 1436 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Becky Edwards 29.0 · Evan McMullin 28.0 | pollarch |
| 6/4/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 810 | — | RV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 57.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1436d old Poll was fielded 1436 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Ally Isom 23.0 · Evan McMullin 34.0 | pollarch |
| 3/24/2022 | Moore Information Group | 0.40 | R(R+10.0) | 400 | — | LV | 🟠weight 0.40🟡4 scored polls+4- 🟠
weight 0.40 Aggregation weight is 0.40 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. - 🟡
4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
1508d old Poll was fielded 1508 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+6.5pt vs editors Across 8 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 6.5pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Mike Lee 49.0 · Kael Weston 13.0 · Evan McMullin 25.0 | pollarch |
| 3/21/2022 | Dan Jones & Associates | 1.00 | — | 804 | — | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡1511d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
1511d old Poll was fielded 1511 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Deseret News Commissioned by Deseret News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Mike Lee 43.0 · Kael Weston 11.0 · Evan McMullin 19.0 | pollarch |
| 3/5/2022 | Kurt Jetta | 1.00 | neutral | 683 | — | A | 🟠flagged on verification🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 57.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. - 🟡
1527d old Poll was fielded 1527 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
| Mike Lee 31.0 · Evan McMullin 26.0 | pollarch |
| 2/14/2022 | OH Predictive Insights | 1.01 | —(R+1.6) | 739 | — | RV | 🟡1546d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1546d old Poll was fielded 1546 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike Lee 34.0 · Kael Weston 12.0 · Evan McMullin 24.0 | pollarch |
| 2/14/2022 | OH Predictive Insights | 1.01 | —(R+1.6) | 739 | — | RV | 🟡1546d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1546d old Poll was fielded 1546 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike Lee 36.0 · Steve Schmidt 11.0 · Evan McMullin 23.0 | pollarch |
| 2/14/2022 | OH Predictive Insights | 1.01 | —(R+1.6) | 739 | — | RV | 🟡1546d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1546d old Poll was fielded 1546 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike Lee 45.0 · Steve Schmidt 25.0 | pollarch |
| 2/14/2022 | OH Predictive Insights | 1.01 | —(R+1.6) | 739 | — | RV | 🟡1546d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
1546d old Poll was fielded 1546 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
| Mike Lee 45.0 · Kael Weston 25.0 | pollarch |