Races · Senate · 2022 · Utah
Senate · class III · open seat
Utah Senate
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+12) suggests Likely R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+33.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+45.6 (10th pctile) to R+21.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · likely-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +33.6
80% CI: R +45.6 → R +21.6 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 32 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+10.4 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 32 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | Hill Research Consultants | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 47 |
| Oct 28 | Hill Research Consultants | 500 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | 47 |
| Oct 27 | Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling | 825 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 49 |
| Oct 26 | OH Predictive Insights | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.68 tracked | +0.3aligned | 53 |
| Oct 26 | Emerson College | 825 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | 50 |
| Oct 25 | Noble Predictive Insights | 600 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +3.04 tracked | +3.4d lean | 51 |
| Oct 10 | Hill Research Consultants | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 43 |
| Oct 10 | Kurt Jetta+1 | 406 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | +10.4d lean | 38 |
| Oct 9 | Hill Research Consultants | 500 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | 43 |
| Oct 7 | Center Street PAC | 239 · unknown | D-LEAN | — | — | 50 |
Endorsements · 0 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yetIEvan McMullin0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMike Lee0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RBecky Edwards0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RAlly Isom0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-15Mike LeeS0UT00165 ↗
Receipts
$10.9M
Disburse
$10.5M
Cash on hand
$955.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$38.5K
Securities & investment · $38.5K
- Blackstone · $20.4K
- Apollo Global Management · $18.1K
Individuals $38.5K · PACs $0
Computers / electronics$25.3K
Computers / electronics · $25.3K
- Microsoft · $25.3K
Individuals $25.3K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$21.2K
Lawyers / law firms · $21.2K
- Sidley Austin LLP · $21.2K
Individuals $21.2K · PACs $0
Real estate$17.4K
Real estate · $17.4K
- Real Estate Management · $17.4K
Individuals $17.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
MICROSOFT$25.3K
SIDLEY AUSTIN LLP$21.2K
BLACKSTONE$20.4K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$18.1K
4LIFE RESEARCH$17.4K
Evan McMullinS2UT00369 ↗
Receipts
$8.0M
Disburse
$7.7M
Cash on hand
$289.3K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$33.8K
Education · $33.8K
- University of Utah · $33.8K
Individuals $33.8K · PACs $0
Internet$25.6K
Internet · $25.6K
- Google · $25.6K
Individuals $25.6K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$18.1K
Securities & investment · $18.1K
- Morgan Stanley · $18.1K
Individuals $18.1K · PACs $0
Health professionals$14.4K
Health professionals · $14.4K
- Intermountain Healthcare · $14.4K
Individuals $14.4K · PACs $0
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF UTAH$33.8K
GOOGLE$25.6K
MORGAN STANLEY$18.1K
INTERMOUNTAIN HEALTHCARE$14.4K
AVENUE SOLUTIONS$11.7K
Becky EdwardsS2UT00336 ↗
Receipts
$1.6M
Disburse
$1.6M
Cash on hand
$15.4
Debts
$527.5K
Top industries
Real estate$8.7K
Real estate · $8.7K
- Peco Real Estate Partner · $8.7K
Individuals $8.7K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ACCEL PARTNERS$11.6K
QUALTRICS$9.6K
THOMAS ARTS$8.7K
PECO REAL ESTATE PARTNER$8.7K
OGEDEN RAPTORS$8.7K
Ally IsomS2UT00344 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$18.6M
D side
$5.8M · 31%
R side
$12.8M · 69%
Top spender
CRYPTO FREEDOM PAC
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRYPTO FREEDOM PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $9.4M | 51% | against Evan McMullin |
| CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $7.6M | 41% | for Mike Lee |
| PUT UTAH FIRST PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $5.9M | 32% | against Mike Lee |
| AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION super pac · boosts R
| R | $3.2M | 17% | for Mike Lee |
| LIBERTY CHAMPIONS super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.3M | 7% | for Mike Lee |
| PROTECT OUR WINTERS ACTION FUND pac · boosts R
| I | $65.6K | 0% | for Evan McMullin |
| INDEPENDENT VOTER COALITION super pac · boosts R
| R | $3.9K | 0% | for Becky Edwards |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely R3
Likely R · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Aug 17
- Inside Elections · Sep 8
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 14
Safe R3
Safe R · 3 raters
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Sep 21
The Cook Political Report
Likely RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Likely RSabato's Crystal Ball
Likely RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified18 / 32deterministic
Polls flagged5needs review
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-15
Endorsements—nothing to sync
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks