Races · Senate · 2022 · South Dakota
Senate · class III · open seat
Brian Bengs vs John Thune
Where this race stands
VerifiedSafe R · model 99% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+16) suggests Safe R.
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+37.2 with an 80% CI ranging from R+49.2 (10th pctile) to R+25.2 (90th pctile), giving R a 99% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · safe-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +37.2
80% CI: R +49.2 → R +25.2 · win prob 1%
R+60R+30TIEDD+30D+60
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 6 |
| Days to election | passed |
| Actual result | R+43.5 |
| Residual σ | 6.00pt |
| Generated | 7/1/2026 |
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 6 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Emerson College+1 | 1,500 · unknown | NEUTRAL | D +0.7118 tracked | +0.8aligned | — |
| Oct 9 | South Dakota State University | 565 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 28 · 53 |
| Oct 3 | South Dakota State University School of American and Global Studies | 565 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | — | — |
| Sep 10 | Lake Research Partners+2For · Politico | 400 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | 33 · 46 |
| Sep 7 | Lake Research Partners | 400 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | +17.7noisy | — |
| Mar 18 | Moore Information Group+2 | 400 · LV | R-LEAN | R +10.04 tracked | -6.5r lean | 24 · 59 |
Endorsements · 3 total
Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet3
Endorsements tracked
Brian Bengs0 · 0%
John Thune3 · 100%
Total3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RJohn Thune3 endorsers
Most notable · American Israel Public Affairs Committee
Other2
Other · 2
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions
- NRA Political Victory Fund
Organizations1
Organizations · 1
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee
DEMBrian L. Bengs0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPJohn R. Thune0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
DBrian Bengs0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LTamara Lesnar0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-10-28John ThuneS2SD00068 ↗
Receipts
$7.5M
Disburse
$4.0M
Cash on hand
$16.9M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$128.7K
Securities & investment · $128.7K
- Kkr · $34.4K
- Goldman Sachs · $27.1K
- Fidelity Investments · $23.4K
- Apollo Global Management · $22.5K
- Blackstone · $21.3K
Individuals $128.7K · PACs $0
Air transport$28.8K
Air transport · $28.8K
- Delta Air Lines · $28.8K
Individuals $28.8K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$23.9K
TV / movies / music · $23.9K
- Fox Corporation · $23.9K
Individuals $23.9K · PACs $0
Electric utilities$23.0K
Electric utilities · $23.0K
- Nextera Energy · $23.0K
Individuals $23.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
SANFORD HEALTH$67.5K
CAPITAL GROUP$37.9K
KKR$34.4K
DELTA AIR LINES$28.8K
GOLDMAN SACHS$27.1K
Brian Bengs
Receipts
$498.0K
Disburse
$492.3K
Cash on hand
$5.7K
Debts
$20.0K
Top industries
Education$1.8K
Education · $1.8K
- Augustana University · $1.8K
Individuals $1.8K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$1.5K
Lawyers / law firms · $1.5K
- Ronayne Law Office P.C. · $1.5K
Individuals $1.5K · PACs $0
Top contributors
K ROWE INVESTMENTS LLC$5.8K
SANFORD HEALTH$3.3K
SANFORD$3.1K
THE DASCHLE GROUP$2.9K
NOT-EMPLOYED$2.0K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$209.3K
D side
$3.0K · 1%
R side
$206.4K · 99%
Top spender
AMERICAN ENERGY ACT…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMERICAN ENERGY ACTION FUND super pac · boosts R
| R | $204.0K | 97% | for John Thune |
| REALLY AMERICAN PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $3.0K | 1% | against John Thune |
| NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND pac · boosts R
| R | $2.3K | 1% | for John Thune |
| SOUTH DAKOTAN FOR POLITICAL INTEGRITY super pac · boosts R
| R | $55.6 | 0% | for John Thune |
Editorial ratings · 6 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe R6
Safe R · 6 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Nov 18
- DDHQ · Jul 19
- The Economist · Sep 6
- 538 · Jun 29
- Inside Elections · Jan 6
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 2
The Cook Political Report
Safe RDDHQ
Safe RThe Economist
Safe R538
Safe RInside Elections
Safe RSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified3 / 6deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-10-28
Endorsements3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks