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Races · Senate · 2022 · Nevada
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Senate · class III · open seat

Catherine Cortez Masto vs Adam Laxalt

← New Hampshire SenateNew York Senate →
Likely DD +6.0 forecast· 81 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
84% Masto (D)
16% Laxalt (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +6.0 · 80% CI R+6.0 → D+18.0
Actual result D+0.8 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tossup · model 84% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+6.0 with an 80% CI ranging from R+6.0 (10th pctile) to D+18.0 (90th pctile), giving D a 84% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tossup
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +6.0
80% CI: R +6.0 → D +18.0 · win prob 84%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used81
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+0.8
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

2025303540455055LAXALT 47.1LAXALT 46.4MASTO 45.7BROWN 24.0AUG '21MAR '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 81 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 6, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,089 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean45 · 50
Nov 5, 22Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned46 · 47
Nov 5, 22Data for Progress+11,100 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 49
Nov 5, 22Trafalgar Group1,089 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean45
Nov 4, 22Research Co.450 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned48
Nov 3, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned44 · 50
Nov 3, 22InsiderAdvantage550 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned44
Nov 3, 22Data for Progress1,100 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned47
Nov 2, 22KAConsultingFor · Politico501 · LVR-LEANR +3.68 tracked-2.3r lean45 · 44
Nov 1, 22Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 46
Nov 1, 22KAConsulting501 · unknownR-LEANR +3.68 tracked-2.3r lean45
Oct 31, 22Cygnal600 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43
Oct 28, 22Emerson College+2For · Emerson Polling2,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 50
Oct 27, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 44
Oct 27, 22Emerson College+12,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned46
Oct 26, 22OH Predictive InsightsFor · Google Docs600 · LVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned43 · 41
Oct 26, 22Susquehanna Polling and ResearchFor · BUSR500 · LVR-LEANR +1.53 tracked+2.4d lean43 · 48
Oct 25, 22Echelon Insights+1For · Echelon Insights500 · LVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy45 · 45
Oct 25, 22Noble Predictive Insights600 · unknownNEUTRALD +3.04 tracked+3.4d lean43
Oct 25, 22Suffolk University500 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned45
Oct 25, 22Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.500 · unknownR-LEAN——43
Oct 24, 22Echelon Insights500 · unknownNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy45
Oct 23, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,100 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean46 · 50
Oct 23, 22Siena Research/NYT+1885 · LVNEUTRALR +1.24 tracked—47 · 47
Oct 23, 22Trafalgar Group1,100 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean46
Oct 22, 22Phillips Academy1,052 · LVNEUTRALR +1.24 tracked+1.7aligned49 · 47
Oct 21, 22Phillips Academy1,052 · unknownNEUTRALR +1.24 tracked+1.7aligned49
Oct 20, 22The New York Times/Siena College885 · unknownNEUTRAL——47
Oct 20, 22Garin Hart Yang Research Group *501 · unknownNEUTRAL——47
Oct 19, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned46 · 48
Oct 19, 22InsiderAdvantage550 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned46
Oct 18, 22CBS News/YouGov+2For · CBS News1,057 · LVD-LEAND +3.416 tracked+1.4aligned48 · 49
Oct 18, 22Data for Progress+1819 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 49
Oct 18, 22BSP Research/Shaw & Co.+1For · Univision1,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.34 tracked—44 · 42
Oct 18, 22University of Nevada, Reno586 · LVNEUTRAL——52 · 39
Oct 17, 22WPA Intelligence+1For · Politico500 · LVR-LEAN—-1.2aligned43 · 45
Oct 16, 22Rasmussen ReportsFor · Rasmussen Reports707 · LVNEUTRALR +1.9124 tracked-0.9aligned43 · 48
Oct 16, 22WPA Intelligence500 · unknownR-LEAN—-1.2aligned43
Oct 15, 22YouGov1,057 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean48
Oct 15, 22BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research721 · unknownNEUTRAL——47
Oct 15, 22Data for Progress819 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48
Oct 14, 22Rasmussen Reports707 · unknownNEUTRALR +1.9124 tracked-0.9aligned43
Oct 11, 22University of Nevada Department of Political Science586 · unknownNEUTRAL——52
Oct 6, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 44
Oct 5, 22Suffolk University500 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned46
Oct 3, 22WPA Intelligence+1For · Politico500 · LVR-LEAN—-1.2aligned44 · 42
Oct 2, 22WPA Intelligence500 · unknownR-LEAN—-1.2aligned44
Oct 1, 22CNN/SSRS926 · RVD-LEAND +4.417 tracked+3.0d lean47 · 44
Sep 28, 22OH Predictive InsightsFor · The Nevada Independent741 · LVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned43 · 45
Sep 28, 22SSRS828 · unknownNEUTRAL——46
Sep 23, 22Noble Predictive Insights741 · unknownNEUTRALD +3.04 tracked+3.4d lean43
Sep 19, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned43 · 46
Sep 19, 22Big Data Poll750 · LVNEUTRALR +6.84 tracked-2.3r lean44 · 46
Sep 19, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,086 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean43 · 47
Sep 19, 22InsiderAdvantage500 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned43
Sep 18, 22Data for Progress+1874 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned46 · 47
Sep 18, 22Trafalgar Group1,086 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean43
Sep 18, 22WPA Intelligence500 · unknownR-LEAN—-1.2aligned42
Sep 15, 22Data for Progress874 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned46
Sep 9, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned41 · 42
Sep 8, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned41
Aug 23, 22Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+11,332 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned44 · 40
Aug 17, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,082 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean44 · 47
Aug 16, 22Suffolk University+1500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned45 · 38
Jul 19, 22Beacon Research+1For · Google Docs479 · RVD-LEAN—+8.2d lean49 · 39
Jul 9, 22Emerson College+2For · Emerson Polling2,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned44 · 41
Jun 26, 22Change Research+1701 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy46 · 43
May 26, 22University of Nevada, Reno1,098 · ANEUTRAL——48 · 27
May 26, 22University of Nevada, Reno1,098 · ANEUTRAL——47 · 24
Apr 19, 22McLaughlin & Associates+1For · McLaughlin & Associates600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.04 tracked-6.3noisy46 · 47
Apr 8, 22OH Predictive InsightsFor · The Nevada Independent748 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned43 · 35
Apr 8, 22OH Predictive Insights748 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned42 · 34
Apr 5, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned40 · 43
Apr 5, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned39 · 40
Mar 23, 22Blueprint Polling671 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.4d lean40 · 47
Jan 25, 22OH Predictive InsightsFor · The Nevada Independent755 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned44 · 35
Nov 28, 21The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,034 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean41 · 44
Nov 16, 21NRSC+1For · NBC News571 · LVR-LEAN——42 · 46
Sep 21, 21The Mellman GroupFor · The Nevada Independent600 · LVD-LEAN——46 · 41
Sep 14, 21WPA IntelligenceFor · Washington Examiner504 · LVR-LEAN—-1.2aligned37 · 39
Aug 13, 21VCreek/AMG567 · RVR-LEAN——32 · 42
· 81 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 23 total

Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet
23Masto · 100%
DCatherine Cortez Masto23 endorsers
Most notable · Las Vegas Sun
Organizations13
Other9
Newspapers1
RAdam Laxalt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPAdam Paul Laxalt0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RSam Brown0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-21
Catherine Cortez MastoS6NV00200 ↗
Receipts
$60.6M
Disburse
$60.6M
Cash on hand
$3.0M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$95.1K
Lawyers / law firms$88.7K
Computers / electronics$81.7K
Education$81.7K
Internet$59.7K
Top contributors
GOOGLE$59.7K
MICROSOFT$54.6K
BLACKSTONE$50.5K
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT$44.6K
STANFORD UNIVERSITY$41.4K
Adam LaxaltS2NV00324 ↗
Receipts
$19.1M
Disburse
$18.6M
Cash on hand
$504.8K
Debts
$0
Top industries
Securities & investment$44.0K
Lawyers / law firms$15.2K
Top contributors
LYON LIVING$29.0K
BLACKSTONE$22.3K
FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL$21.7K
BGR GROUP$18.8K
RDV CORPORATION$17.4K
Sam BrownS2NV00308 ↗
No FEC committee filing yet.
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$7.3M
D side
$5.4M · 74%
R side
$1.9M · 26%
Top spender
NEVADA ADVOCATES FO…
For / against split
For Masto $2.8M
Against Laxalt $2.5M
Against Masto $1.2M
For Laxalt $673.7K
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
NEVADA ADVOCATES FOR PLANNED PARENTHOOD AFFILIATES PAC (NAPPA PAC)D$2.2M30%for Catherine Cortez Masto
REPUBLICAN ACCOUNTABILITY PACD$1.0M14%against Adam Laxalt
SMPD$755.5K10%against Adam Laxalt
NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUNDR$625.0K9%for Adam Laxalt
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACR$537.6K7%against Catherine Cortez Masto
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIOND$537.4K7%against Sam Brown
SENATE LEADERSHIP FUNDR$375.5K5%against Catherine Cortez Masto
ONE APIA PACD$356.1K5%for Catherine Cortez Masto
POLICE OFFICERS DEFENSE ALLIANCE PACR$188.8K3%for Sam Brown
CITIZENS FOR NEVADA PAC INCR$70.9K1%for Sam Brown

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D1
Tossup4
Lean R1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Mar 3
DDHQ
Tossup
Aug 21
The Economist
Lean R
Nov 5
538
Tossup
Sep 21
Inside Elections
Tossup
Feb 23
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Nov 6

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Likely Dmodel
Jun 22, 2026Lean Dmodel
May 11, 2026Tilt Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified50 / 81deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-21
Endorsements23 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks