Races · Senate · 2022 · NV

Senate · class II · open seat

Catherine Cortez Masto vs Adam Laxalt

← NH Senate NY Senate →

Tossup — · 50 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1280d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 50 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands

Verified

Tossup

tossup

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

Show poll dots95% CI bandOverlay all methods|Toggle:

All polls · 50 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:50 of 50 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1089	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1280d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1280d old Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Adam Laxalt 50.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	—	LV	1281d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 47.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1100	—	LV	1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Adam Laxalt 49.0	poll arch
11/4/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1283d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1283d old Poll was fielded 1283 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Adam Laxalt 50.0	poll arch
11/3/2022	KAConsulting	1.08	R(R+3.6)	501	—	LV	1284d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1284d old Poll was fielded 1284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Adam Laxalt 44.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Cygnal	1.04	R(D+1.8)	600	—	LV	1285d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 72 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 46.0	poll arch
10/29/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	2000	—	LV	1289d old✓ verified 5d ago+4 1289d old Poll was fielded 1289 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. n=2,000 Sample size of 2,000 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Adam Laxalt 50.0	poll arch
10/28/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1290d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1290d old Poll was fielded 1290 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Adam Laxalt 44.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	—	LV	1291d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 41.0	poll arch
10/27/2022	Susquehanna Polling and Research	1.73	R(R+1.5)	500	—	LV	3 scored polls1291d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1291d old Poll was fielded 1291 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 48.0	poll arch
10/26/2022	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	500	—	LV	1292d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Adam Laxalt 45.0	poll arch
10/24/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1100	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1294d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1294d old Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 50.0	poll arch
10/24/2022	Siena Research/NYT	3.57	—(R+1.1)	885	—	LV	3 scored polls1294d old+3 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1294d old Poll was fielded 1294 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.57 Aggregation weight is 3.57 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Adam Laxalt 47.0	poll arch
10/23/2022	Phillips Academy	0.79	—(R+1.2)	1052	—	LV	4 scored polls1295d old+2 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1295d old Poll was fielded 1295 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 49.0 · Adam Laxalt 47.0	poll arch
10/20/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1298d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1298d old Poll was fielded 1298 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 48.0	poll arch
10/19/2022	CBS News/YouGov	0.92	L(D+3.4)	1057	—	LV	historical bias D+3.4pt1299d old+4 historical bias D+3.4pt Across 16 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1299d old Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 48.0 · Adam Laxalt 49.0	poll arch
10/19/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	819	—	LV	1299d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1299d old Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 48.0 · Adam Laxalt 49.0	poll arch
10/19/2022	BSP Research/Shaw & Co.	1.93	—(D+0.3)	1000	—	RV	4 scored polls1299d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1299d old Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. weight 1.93 Aggregation weight is 1.93 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Adam Laxalt 42.0	poll arch
10/19/2022	University of Nevada, Reno	1.00	—	586	—	LV	no scored polls1299d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1299d old Poll was fielded 1299 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 52.0 · Adam Laxalt 39.0	poll arch
10/18/2022	WPA Intelligence	1.00	R	500	—	LV	no scored polls1300d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1300d old Poll was fielded 1300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 45.0	poll arch
10/17/2022	Rasmussen Reports	1.00	—(R+2.1)	707	—	LV	bias R+2.1pt1301d old+3 bias R+2.1pt Across 50 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.1pt. 1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 74 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 48.0	poll arch
10/7/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1311d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1311d old Poll was fielded 1311 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 44.0	poll arch
10/4/2022	WPA Intelligence	1.00	R	500	—	LV	no scored polls1314d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1314d old Poll was fielded 1314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Adam Laxalt 42.0	poll arch
10/2/2022	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	926	—	RV	historical bias D+4.4pt1316d old+2 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1316d old Poll was fielded 1316 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Adam Laxalt 44.0	poll arch
9/29/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	741	—	LV	1319d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1319d old Poll was fielded 1319 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 45.0	poll arch
9/20/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1328d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1328d old Poll was fielded 1328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 46.0	poll arch
9/20/2022	Big Data Poll	0.69	R(R+5.8)	750	—	LV	3 scored polls1328d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1328d old Poll was fielded 1328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Adam Laxalt 46.0	poll arch
9/20/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1086	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1328d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1328d old Poll was fielded 1328 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 47.0	poll arch
9/19/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	874	—	LV	1329d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1329d old Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 47.0	poll arch
9/10/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1338d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1338d old Poll was fielded 1338 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 41.0 · Adam Laxalt 42.0	poll arch
8/24/2022	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research	1.00	L	1332	—	LV	no scored polls1355d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1355d old Poll was fielded 1355 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Adam Laxalt 40.0	poll arch
8/18/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1082	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1361d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1361d old Poll was fielded 1361 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Adam Laxalt 47.0	poll arch
8/17/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1362d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1362d old Poll was fielded 1362 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 45.0 · Adam Laxalt 38.0	poll arch
7/20/2022	Beacon Research	1.00	L	479	—	RV	no scored polls1390d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1390d old Poll was fielded 1390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Catherine Cortez Masto 49.0 · Adam Laxalt 39.0	poll arch
7/10/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	2000	—	RV	1400d old✓ verified 5d ago+4 1400d old Poll was fielded 1400 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. n=2,000 Sample size of 2,000 respondents implies a margin of error around ±2.2pt — tighter than the ~600-respondent typical. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Adam Laxalt 41.0	poll arch
6/27/2022	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	701	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt1413d old+3 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 1413d old Poll was fielded 1413 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 43.0	poll arch
5/27/2022	University of Nevada, Reno	1.00	—	1098	—	A	no scored pollsadult sample+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. 1444d old Poll was fielded 1444 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.	Catherine Cortez Masto 48.0 · Adam Laxalt 27.0	poll arch
5/27/2022	University of Nevada, Reno	1.00	—	1098	—	A	no scored pollsadult sample+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. 1444d old Poll was fielded 1444 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.	Catherine Cortez Masto 47.0 · Sam Brown 24.0	poll arch
4/20/2022	McLaughlin & Associates	1.00	—	600	—	LV	no scored polls1481d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1481d old Poll was fielded 1481 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 47.0	poll arch
4/9/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	748	—	RV	1492d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1492d old Poll was fielded 1492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 43.0 · Adam Laxalt 35.0	poll arch
4/9/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	748	—	RV	1492d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1492d old Poll was fielded 1492 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 42.0 · Sam Brown 34.0	poll arch
4/6/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1495d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1495d old Poll was fielded 1495 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 40.0 · Adam Laxalt 43.0	poll arch
4/6/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1495d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1495d old Poll was fielded 1495 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 39.0 · Sam Brown 40.0	poll arch
3/24/2022	Blueprint Polling	1.00	L	671	—	LV	no scored polls1508d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1508d old Poll was fielded 1508 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 40.0 · Adam Laxalt 47.0	poll arch
1/26/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	755	—	RV	1565d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1565d old Poll was fielded 1565 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Catherine Cortez Masto 44.0 · Adam Laxalt 35.0	poll arch
11/29/2021	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1034	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1623d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1623d old Poll was fielded 1623 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 41.0 · Adam Laxalt 44.0	poll arch
11/17/2021	NRSC	1.00	R	571	—	LV	no scored polls1635d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1635d old Poll was fielded 1635 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. TV-network-sponsored: NBC News Commissioned by NBC News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Catherine Cortez Masto 42.0 · Adam Laxalt 46.0	poll arch
9/22/2021	The Mellman Group	1.00	—	600	—	LV	no scored polls1691d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1691d old Poll was fielded 1691 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 46.0 · Adam Laxalt 41.0	poll arch
9/15/2021	WPA Intelligence	1.00	R	504	—	LV	no scored polls1698d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1698d old Poll was fielded 1698 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Catherine Cortez Masto 37.0 · Adam Laxalt 39.0	poll arch
8/14/2021	VCreek/AMG	1.00	R	567	—	RV	no scored polls1730d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1730d old Poll was fielded 1730 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Catherine Cortez Masto 32.0 · Adam Laxalt 42.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 28 total

Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

28 endorsements · source

Newspapers (1)

Las Vegas Sun — [ 25 ]

Organizations / unions (14)

American Israel Public Affairs Committee — [ 9 ]
Culinary Workers Union — [ 26 ]
Feminist Majority PAC — [ 12 ]
Humane Society of the United States — Legislative Fund [ 13 ]
International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees — local 720 [ 27 ]
League of Conservation Voters — [ 16 ]
National Wildlife Federation — [ 18 ]
Natural Resources Defense Council — [ 19 ]
Nevada AFL–CIO — [ 28 ]
Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association — [ 29 ]
Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 20 ]
Population Connection Action Fund — [ 21 ]
United Auto Workers — [ 30 ]
[ 24 ] — s Political Committee [ 24 ]

Other (13)

60 — 70%
70 — 80%
80 — 90%
90 — 100%
AAPI Victory Fund — [ 8 ]
EMILY's List — [ 10 ]
End Citizens United — [ 11 ]
Jewish Dems — [ 14 ]
Latino Victory — [ 15 ]
Let America Vote — [ 11 ]
NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 17 ]
Pro-Israel America — [ 22 ]
Sierra Club — [ 23 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-21

Total IE spending

$8.2M

For candidates

$3.8M

Against candidates

$4.3M

Latest filing: 12/21/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E

Catherine Cortez Masto (D)

$2.8M for · $1.2M against

Cash on hand

$3.0M

Total raised (cycle)

$60.6M

Total spent

$60.6M

Debts

Source: FEC

$1.1M for NEVADA ADVOCATES FOR PLANNED PARENTHOOD AFFILIATES PAC (NAPPA PAC) Super PAC
$538K against WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC Super PAC
$376K against SENATE LEADERSHIP FUND Super PAC
$370K for SMP Super PAC
$356K for ONE APIA PAC Super PAC

Adam Laxalt (R)

$674K for · $2.5M against

Cash on hand

$505K

Total raised (cycle)

$19.1M

Total spent

$18.6M

Debts

Source: FEC

$1.0M against NEVADA ADVOCATES FOR PLANNED PARENTHOOD AFFILIATES PAC (NAPPA PAC) Super PAC
$1.0M against REPUBLICAN ACCOUNTABILITY PAC Super PAC
$625K for NATIONAL VICTORY ACTION FUND Super PAC
$385K against SMP Super PAC
$48K against IMMIGRANTS' LIST PAC

Sam Brown (R)

$314K for · $537K against

$537K against CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION Super PAC
$189K for POLICE OFFICERS DEFENSE ALLIANCE PAC Super PAC
$71K for CITIZENS FOR NEVADA PAC INC Super PAC
$55K for FIREFIGHTERS ALLIANCE OF AMERICA PAC Super PAC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Mar 4	—	0.0	—
DDHQ	Tossup	Aug 22	—	0.0	—
The Economist	Lean R	Nov 6	—	-3.5	—
538	Tossup	Sep 22	—	0.0	—
Inside Elections	Tossup	Feb 24	—	0.0	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Nov 7	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/7/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (4 changes)

10/25/2022 Tossup D+0.1 via polls held 7d
10/18/2022 Tilt D D+0.5 via polls held 24d
9/24/2022 Lean D D+4.5 via polls held 75d
7/11/2022 Likely D D+5.7 via polls