Races · Governor · 2022 · Arizona Governor · open seat
Katie Hobbs vs Kari Lake Likely R R +5.4 forecast · 58 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probability poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
18% Hobbs (D)
82% Lake (R)
Win probability
Katie Hobbs 18% (D)
Kari Lake 82% (R)
Model poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15 R+5 TIED D+5 D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimate R +5.4
80% CI R+17.4 → D+6.6
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +5.4 · 80% CI R+17.4 → D+6.6
Actual result D+0.7 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Momentum
Now —
Window 36 points
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now 0.0%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
Now —
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now —
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Where this race stands
Tilt R · model 82% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R .
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+5.4 with an 80% CI ranging from R+17.4 (10th pctile) to D+6.6 (90th pctile), giving R a 82% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tilt-r
D Kathleen Marie Hobbs (born December 28, 1969) is an American politician serving since 2023 as the 24th governor of Arizona . A member of the…
18%win R Kari Lake
Kari Lake ( Republican Party ) ran for election to the U.S. Senate to represent Arizona. She lost in the general election on November 5, 202…
82%win R Karrin Margaret Taylor Robson ( / ˈ r oʊ b s ə n / ROBE -sən , née Kunasek , born February 7, 1965) is an American attorney, businesswoman, …
82%win Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +5.4
80% CI: R +17.4 → D +6.6 · win prob 18%
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used 58 Days to election passed Actual result D+0.7 Residual σ 6.00pt Generated 7/1/2026
All polls · 58 results Date Pollster · trust signals n · pop Lean Bias · track vs raters D · R Nov 6, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,094 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 47 · 51 Nov 5, 22 Data Orbital +1 550 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.2 10 tracked -0.3 aligned 47 · 50 Nov 5, 22 Research Co. +1 450 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.4 50 tracked -0.7 aligned 47 · 49 Nov 5, 22 Data for Progress +1 1,359 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 48 · 52 Nov 5, 22 Targoz Market Research 560 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.7 12 tracked +4.3 noisy 48 · 50 Nov 2, 22 KAConsulting 501 · LV R-LEAN R +3.6 8 tracked -2.3 r lean 45 · 49 Nov 1, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 48 · 51 Nov 1, 22 HighGround, Inc. 500 · LV NEUTRAL — +0.6 aligned 45 · 47 Nov 1, 22 Remington Research Group +1 1,075 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.2 11 tracked +1.6 aligned 46 · 49 Nov 1, 22 Big Data Poll 1,051 · LV NEUTRAL R +6.8 4 tracked -2.3 r lean 47 · 51 Nov 1, 22 Marist College +1 1,157 · RV D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 48 · 47 Nov 1, 22 Civiqs 852 · LV D-LEAN D +2.5 22 tracked +4.0 d lean 48 · 50 Oct 31, 22 Alloy Analytics 639 · LV R-LEAN — — 46 · 50 Oct 31, 22 Emerson College +1 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 47 · 49 Oct 30, 22 Alloy Analytics 639 · unknown R-LEAN — — 46 · 50 Oct 29, 22 The Phillips Academy 985 · LV NEUTRAL — — 42 · 53 Oct 29, 22 Fox News 1,003 · RV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 46 · 47 Oct 29, 22 Wick Insights 1,122 · LV R-LEAN R +4.5 9 tracked -0.6 aligned 47 · 49 Oct 25, 22 Fabrizio, Lee and Associates +1 800 · LV NEUTRAL — — 47 · 50 Oct 25, 22 OH Predictive Insights 600 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.6 8 tracked +0.3 aligned 47 · 49 Oct 25, 22 Siena College/NYT +1 604 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.3 4 tracked — 48 · 48 Oct 25, 22 BSP Research/Shaw & Co. +1 1,000 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.3 4 tracked — 40 · 42 Oct 24, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 43 · 54 Oct 20, 22 co/efficient 1,111 · LV R-LEAN R +5.4 13 tracked -3.4 r lean 45 · 49 Oct 18, 22 Data Orbital +1 550 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.2 10 tracked -0.3 aligned 44 · 47 Oct 17, 22 Susquehanna Polling & Research 600 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.0 7 tracked +2.3 d lean 48 · 47 Oct 17, 22 Data Orbital 550 · unknown NEUTRAL R +0.2 10 tracked -0.3 aligned 44 · 47 Oct 16, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,078 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 46 · 49 Oct 16, 22 Data for Progress +1 893 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 46 · 50 Oct 13, 22 Wick Insights 1,058 · LV R-LEAN R +4.5 9 tracked -0.6 aligned 47 · 47 Oct 12, 22 HighGround, Inc. 500 · LV NEUTRAL — +0.6 aligned 46 · 45 Oct 10, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 46 · 49 Oct 9, 22 Ascend Action +1 954 · LV D-LEAN D +13.2 7 tracked +10.6 d lean 45 · 46 Oct 4, 22 Big Data Poll 974 · LV NEUTRAL R +6.8 4 tracked -2.3 r lean 46 · 49 Oct 3, 22 YouGov/CBS News +2 1,164 · RV NEUTRAL — +1.6 aligned 49 · 49 Oct 1, 22 CNN/SSRS 900 · RV D-LEAN D +4.4 17 tracked +3.0 d lean 49 · 44 Sep 25, 22 Fox News 1,008 · RV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 44 · 43 Sep 24, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 46 · 45 Sep 21, 22 Marist College +1 1,260 · RV D-LEAN D +2.0 25 tracked +1.7 aligned 45 · 46 Sep 18, 22 Data for Progress +1 768 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 47 · 51 Sep 16, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,080 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 46 · 50 Sep 14, 22 Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research +1 500 · LV D-LEAN — +0.8 aligned 49 · 48 Sep 8, 22 Survey Monkey 972 · RV D-LEAN — — 49 · 37 Sep 6, 22 Emerson College +1 627 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 46 · 46 Sep 6, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 44 · 43 Sep 6, 22 Echelon Insights +1 773 · RV NEUTRAL R +1.3 6 tracked +3.3 noisy 50 · 40 Aug 26, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,074 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 46 · 47 Aug 21, 22 RMG Research 750 · LV D-LEAN D +6.6 8 tracked +2.6 d lean 44 · 46 Aug 15, 22 Fox News 1,012 · RV D-LEAN D +2.1 21 tracked +2.7 d lean 47 · 44 Jul 19, 22 Beacon Research +1 802 · RV D-LEAN — +8.2 d lean 43 · 38 Jul 19, 22 Beacon Research +1 802 · RV D-LEAN — +8.2 d lean 42 · 37 Jun 29, 22 TargetSmart 704 · LV NEUTRAL — — 47 · 38 Jun 29, 22 TargetSmart 704 · LV NEUTRAL — — 44 · 39 May 14, 22 GQR Research +1 400 · LV D-LEAN — +6.0 noisy 50 · 45 May 14, 22 GQR Research +1 400 · LV D-LEAN — +6.0 noisy 47 · 46 Feb 12, 22 Data Orbital +1 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.2 10 tracked -0.3 aligned 41 · 43 Feb 12, 22 Data Orbital +1 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.2 10 tracked -0.3 aligned 42 · 37 Nov 9, 21 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 624 · RV D-LEAN D +5.3 5 tracked -0.1 aligned 39 · 34
Endorsements · 3 total Source · Wikipedia · 2 candidates with no endorsements yet 3 Hobbs · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Katie Hobbs 3 · 100%
Kari Lake 0 · 0%
Total 3
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
D Katie Hobbs 3 endorsers
Most notable · Art Hamilton · state representative for the 22nd district (1973–1999)
Elected officials 2
Federal 0 State 2 Local 0
Elected officials · 2
Art Hamilton · state representative for the 22nd district (1973–1999) Richard Andrade · state representative for Arizona's 29th legislative district R Kari Lake 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
R Karrin Taylor Robson 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al. Tossup 2 Tossup · 2 raters
The Cook Political Report · Mar 3 Inside Elections · Mar 3 Lean R 3 Lean R · 3 raters
Elections Daily · Nov 6 538 · Oct 25 Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 6 The Cook Political Report
Tossup Mar 3
Elections Daily
Lean R Nov 6
Inside Elections
Tossup Mar 3
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R Nov 6
Demographic crosstabs age · education · race · gender No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026 Likely R model Jul 1, 2026 · change
Moved to Likely R
From Lean R
Model margin R +5.4
Jun 22, 2026 Lean R model Jun 22, 2026 · change
Moved to Lean R
From Tilt R
Model margin R +3.2
May 11, 2026 Tilt R model May 11, 2026 · change
Moved to Tilt R
Model margin R +2.0
Verification trail
Polls verified 56 / 58deterministic
Polls flagged —none
Markets ingested 0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings —no filings yet
Endorsements 3 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage < 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks