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Races · Senate · 2022 · Arizona
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Senate · class III · open seat

Mark Kelly vs Blake Masters

← Arkansas SenateColorado Senate →
TossupD +0.1 forecast· 116 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
50% Kelly (D)
50% Masters (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +0.1 · 80% CI R+11.9 → D+12.1
Actual result D+4.9 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 50% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+2) suggests Tilt R.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts tied with an 80% CI ranging from R+11.9 (10th pctile) to D+12.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 50% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-r
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +0.1
80% CI: R +11.9 → D +12.1 · win prob 50%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used116
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultD+4.9
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

0510152025303540455055KELLY 48.2MASTERS 45.7VICTOR 2.7LAMON 34.0BRNOVICH 35.0AUG '22OCT '22NOV '22
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

All polls · 116 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Nov 6, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,094 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean47 · 48
Nov 5, 22Data Orbital+1550 · LVNEUTRALR +0.210 tracked-0.3aligned48 · 47
Nov 5, 22Research Co.+1For · Research Co.450 · LVNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned49 · 46
Nov 5, 22Data for Progress+11,359 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 50
Nov 5, 22Targoz Market ResearchFor · PollSmart MR560 · LVNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy50 · 47
Nov 5, 22Trafalgar Group1,094 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean47 · 48
Nov 4, 22Research Co.450 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.450 tracked-0.7aligned51 · 47
Nov 4, 22Data Orbital550 · unknownNEUTRALR +0.210 tracked-0.3aligned48 · 47
Nov 3, 22Data for Progress1,359 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 50
Nov 3, 22Targoz Market Research560 · unknownNEUTRALR +1.712 tracked+4.3noisy50 · 47
Nov 2, 22KAConsultingFor · Politico501 · LVR-LEANR +3.68 tracked-2.3r lean47 · 46
Nov 1, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 48
Nov 1, 22HighGround, Inc.500 · LVNEUTRAL—+0.6aligned46 · 45
Nov 1, 22Remington Research Group+11,075 · LVNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned48 · 47
Nov 1, 22Marist College+1For · Marist College1,157 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned49 · 45
Nov 1, 22Big Data Poll1,051 · LVNEUTRALR +6.84 tracked-2.3r lean48 · 49
Nov 1, 22Patriot PollingFor · Patriot Polling814 · RVR-LEANR +1.410 tracked-3.2r lean49 · 48
Nov 1, 22CiviqsFor · Civiqs852 · LVD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean49 · 49
Nov 1, 22InsiderAdvantage550 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 48
Nov 1, 22KAConsulting501 · unknownR-LEANR +3.68 tracked-2.3r lean47 · 46
Oct 31, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 48
Oct 31, 22Remington Research Group1,075 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.211 tracked+1.6aligned48 · 47
Oct 31, 22HighGround, Inc.500 · unknownNEUTRAL—+0.6aligned46 · 45
Oct 31, 22Marist College1,157 · unknownD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned49 · 45
Oct 31, 22Patriot Polling814 · unknownR-LEANR +1.410 tracked-3.2r lean49 · 48
Oct 30, 22Civiqs852 · unknownD-LEAND +2.522 tracked+4.0d lean49 · 49
Oct 30, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 48
Oct 29, 22The Phillips AcademyFor · The Phillips Academy Poll985 · LVNEUTRAL——47 · 47
Oct 29, 22Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,003 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean47 · 45
Oct 29, 22Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights1,122 · LVR-LEANR +4.59 tracked-0.6aligned49 · 47
Oct 28, 22Phillips Academy985 · unknownNEUTRALR +1.24 tracked+1.7aligned47 · 47
Oct 27, 22Wick1,122 · unknownNEUTRAL——49 · 47
Oct 27, 22Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research1,003 · unknownNEUTRAL——47 · 45
Oct 26, 22Center Street PAC558 · unknownD-LEAN——55 · 45
Oct 25, 22Fabrizio, Lee and Associates+1For · NBC News800 · LVNEUTRAL——47 · 46
Oct 25, 22OH Predictive Insights600 · LVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned48 · 46
Oct 25, 22Siena College/NYT+1604 · LVNEUTRALD +1.34 tracked—51 · 45
Oct 25, 22BSP Research/Shaw & Co.+11,000 · RVNEUTRALD +0.34 tracked—44 · 40
Oct 24, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned45 · 43
Oct 24, 22The New York Times/Siena College604 · unknownNEUTRAL——51 · 45
Oct 24, 22Noble Predictive Insights600 · unknownNEUTRALD +3.04 tracked+3.4d lean48 · 46
Oct 24, 22Fabrizio, Lee & Associates800 · unknownNEUTRAL—+3.9decoupled47 · 46
Oct 23, 22InsiderAdvantage550 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned45 · 43
Oct 22, 22BSP Research/Shaw & Company Research669 · unknownNEUTRAL——47 · 43
Oct 20, 22co/efficientFor · co/efficient1,111 · LVR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean47 · 45
Oct 19, 22co/efficient1,111 · unknownR-LEANR +5.413 tracked-3.4r lean47 · 45
Oct 17, 22Susquehanna Polling & Research600 · LVNEUTRALR +0.07 tracked+2.3d lean48 · 45
Oct 16, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,078 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean47 · 46
Oct 16, 22Data for Progress+1893 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 47
Oct 15, 22Trafalgar Group1,078 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean47 · 46
Oct 15, 22Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.600 · unknownR-LEAN——48 · 45
Oct 13, 22Wick InsightsFor · Wick Insights1,058 · LVR-LEANR +4.59 tracked-0.6aligned49 · 46
Oct 13, 22Data for Progress893 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 47
Oct 12, 22HighGround, Inc.For · Highground Inc. - Public Affairs Consultants500 · LVNEUTRAL—+0.6aligned42 · 40
Oct 11, 22HighGround, Inc.500 · unknownNEUTRAL—+0.6aligned42 · 40
Oct 11, 22Garin Hart Yang Research Group *502 · unknownNEUTRAL——47 · 43
Oct 10, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned46 · 42
Oct 10, 22InsiderAdvantage550 · unknownR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned46 · 42
Oct 9, 22Kurt Jetta+1894 · RVNEUTRAL—+10.4d lean54 · 32
Oct 9, 22Ascend Action+1For · Ascend Action954 · LVD-LEAND +13.27 tracked+10.6d lean48 · 44
Oct 9, 22OnMessage Inc.+1600 · LVNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean46 · 43
Oct 9, 22Wick1,000 · unknownNEUTRAL——49 · 46
Oct 8, 22OnMessage Inc.600 · unknownNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean46 · 43
Oct 8, 22Ascend Action954 · unknownD-LEAND +13.27 tracked+10.6d lean48 · 44
Oct 5, 22OH Predictive Insights674 · LVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned46 · 33
Oct 5, 22Center Street PAC551 · unknownD-LEAN——55 · 38
Oct 4, 22Big Data PollFor · CDM970 · LVNEUTRALR +6.84 tracked-2.3r lean46 · 45
Oct 4, 22Noble Predictive Insights674 · unknownNEUTRALD +3.04 tracked+3.4d lean46 · 33
Oct 3, 22YouGov/CBS News+2For · CBS News1,164 · RVNEUTRAL—+1.6aligned51 · 48
Oct 1, 22CNN/SSRS900 · RVD-LEAND +4.417 tracked+3.0d lean52 · 42
Oct 1, 22YouGov1,161 · unknownD-LEAND +3.423 tracked+2.2d lean51 · 48
Sep 28, 22SSRS795 · unknownNEUTRAL——51 · 45
Sep 25, 22Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,008 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean46 · 40
Sep 24, 22Suffolk University+1For · Suffolk University500 · LVNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 42
Sep 23, 22Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research1,008 · unknownNEUTRAL——46 · 40
Sep 22, 22Suffolk University500 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.221 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 42
Sep 21, 22Marist College+1For · Marist College1,260 · RVD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned51 · 41
Sep 20, 22Marist College1,260 · unknownD-LEAND +2.025 tracked+1.7aligned51 · 41
Sep 18, 22Data for Progress+1768 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 47
Sep 16, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,080 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean47 · 45
Sep 16, 22Data for Progress768 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 47
Sep 15, 22Trafalgar Group1,080 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean47 · 45
Sep 14, 22Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1500 · LVD-LEAN—+0.8aligned50 · 42
Sep 11, 22Fabrizio Lee & Associates/Impact Research500 · unknownNEUTRAL——50 · 42
Sep 10, 22OnMessage Inc.+1400 · LVNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean50 · 40
Sep 9, 22Kurt Jetta+1972 · RVNEUTRAL—+10.4d lean53 · 32
Sep 8, 22OH Predictive Insights654 · LVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned47 · 35
Sep 7, 22OnMessage Inc.400 · unknownNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean50 · 40
Sep 6, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling627 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned47 · 45
Sep 6, 22InsiderAdvantage+1550 · LVR-LEANR +2.838 tracked-0.5aligned45 · 39
Sep 6, 22Echelon Insights+1773 · RVNEUTRALR +1.36 tracked+3.3noisy52 · 37
Aug 26, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,074 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean48 · 44
Aug 21, 22RMG ResearchFor · The Center Square750 · LVD-LEAND +6.68 tracked+2.6d lean50 · 43
Aug 15, 22Fox NewsFor · Fox News1,012 · RVD-LEAND +2.121 tracked+2.7d lean50 · 42
Aug 7, 22Kurt Jetta+11,107 · ANEUTRAL—+10.4d lean48 · 34
Aug 1, 22OnMessage Inc.+2For · Politico600 · LVNEUTRALR +0.25 tracked-4.1r lean49 · 44
Jul 19, 22Beacon Research+1For · Google Docs802 · RVD-LEAN—+8.2d lean49 · 34
Jul 19, 22Beacon Research+1For · Google Docs802 · RVD-LEAN—+8.2d lean49 · 35
Jul 19, 22Beacon Research+1For · Google Docs802 · RVD-LEAN—+8.2d lean48 · 34
Jul 13, 22Fabrizio Lee800 · LVNEUTRAL——49 · 44
Jul 13, 22Fabrizio Lee800 · LVNEUTRAL——45
Jun 26, 22Change Research+1705 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy48 · 39
Jun 26, 22Change Research+1705 · LVD-LEAND +3.718 tracked+5.7noisy47 · 41
May 15, 22Blueprint Polling608 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.4d lean49 · 32
May 15, 22Blueprint Polling608 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.4d lean50 · 33
May 15, 22Blueprint Polling608 · LVNEUTRAL—+2.4d lean48 · 34
May 15, 22OH Predictive Insights938 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned40
Mar 26, 22HighGround Public AffairsFor · Highground Inc. - Public Affairs Consultants400 · LVNEUTRALR +0.93 tracked—45
Mar 14, 22OH Predictive Insights753 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned37
Jan 23, 22Data for Progress+11,469 · LVNEUTRALD +1.151 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 47
Jan 12, 22OH Predictive Insights855 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned42
Nov 7, 21OH Predictive Insights713 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned40
Sep 11, 21OH Predictive Insights882 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned44 · 35
Sep 11, 21OH Predictive Insights882 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned43 · 39
Sep 11, 21OH Predictive Insights882 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned43 · 36
May 4, 21OH Predictive Insights935 · RVNEUTRALR +1.68 tracked+0.3aligned46 · 36
· 116 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 15 total

Source · Wikipedia · 4 candidates with no endorsements yet
15Kelly · 100%
DMark Kelly15 endorsers
Most notable · Christine Todd Whitman · former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward)
Other8
Organizations4
Elected officials3
Federal 1State 1Local 1
RBlake Masters0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LMarc Victor0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJim Lamon0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RMark Brnovich0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Money raised · own committees

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-28
Jim LamonS2AZ00331 ↗
Receipts
$19.6M
Disburse
$19.6M
Cash on hand
$10.8K
Debts
$18.5M
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
DEPCOM POWER$43.0K
ENTREPRENEUR$32.1K
DEPCOM POWER, INC$17.6K
FALL LINE CONSTRUCTION$11.6K
DEPCOM POWER, INC.$10.4K
Mark KellyS0AZ00350 ↗
Receipts
$92.8M
Disburse
$92.7M
Cash on hand
$1.5M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$182.7K
Computers / electronics$136.2K
Internet$83.4K
Lawyers / law firms$37.3K
Top contributors
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA$94.1K
GOOGLE$83.4K
ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY$59.5K
APPLE$55.5K
MICROSOFT$48.8K
Mark BrnovichS2AZ00356 ↗
Receipts
$3.2M
Disburse
$3.2M
Cash on hand
$5.2K
Debts
$460.6K
Top industries
Health professionals$23.2K
Crop production$11.6K
Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR$85.5K
21ST CENTURY HEALTHCARE INC$23.2K
ESHELMAN VENTURES LLC$17.4K
GALCO INT$17.4K
CORECIVIC$15.8K
Blake MastersS2AZ00372 ↗
Receipts
$15.7M
Disburse
$15.6M
Cash on hand
$100.1K
Debts
$823.3K
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
NA$46.1K
THIEL CAPITAL LLC$42.4K
CEO$32.1K
THIEL CAPITAL$30.9K
AMWAY$26.1K

Outside spending · independent expenditures

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reports
IE total
$9.0M
D side
$6.7M · 74%
R side
$2.3M · 26%
Top spender
CRYPTO FREEDOM PAC
For / against split
For Kelly $1.0M
Against Lamon $5.6M
Against Kelly $2.3M
SpenderSideAmountShareTarget
CRYPTO FREEDOM PACD$3.9M43%against Jim Lamon
SAVING ARIZONA PACR$3.1M34%against Mark Kelly
ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDR$1.8M20%for Mark Brnovich
CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTIOND$1.8M20%against Jim Lamon
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTESD$1.7M19%against Blake Masters
WOMEN SPEAK OUT PACD$240.2K3%for Mark Kelly
SMPD$190.3K2%against Blake Masters
LET AMERICA VOTE PACD$179.2K2%for Mark Kelly
THE LINCOLN PROJECTD$45.4K1%against Blake Masters
FREEDOMWORKS FOR AMERICAR$28.7K0%for Blake Masters

Editorial ratings · 6 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Lean D4
Tilt D1
Tossup1
The Cook Political Report
Tossup
Oct 26
DDHQ
Lean D
Oct 24
The Economist
Lean D
Oct 31
FiveThirtyEight
Lean D
Oct 24
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Oct 20
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Oct 18

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026Tossupmodel
Jun 22, 2026Tilt Dmodel
May 11, 2026Lean Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified73 / 116deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2022-12-28
Endorsements15 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks