Races · Senate · 2022 · AZ

Senate · class II · open seat

Mark Kelly vs Blake Masters

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Tilt R — · 81 polls · 0 markets Last poll 1280d ago Rating 1d ago

Caution · early warning

Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 81 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

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Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman

Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.

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All polls · 81 results

Pollster:Population:Lean:High-quality only (weight ≥ 1.5)Sort:81 of 81 polls

End	Pollster	Weight	Lean	Sample	MoE	Pop	Trust signals	Results	Source
11/7/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1094	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1280d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1280d old Poll was fielded 1280 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 48.0 · Marc Victor 1.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Data Orbital	1.42	neutral(R+0.2)	550	—	LV	1281d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+0.2pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+0.2pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 47.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Research Co.	1.01	—(D+1.5)	450	—	LV	1281d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+1.5pt Across 49 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 53 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 46.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1359	—	LV	1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 50.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
11/6/2022	Targoz Market Research	0.77	—(R+1.0)	560	—	LV	1281d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1281d old Poll was fielded 1281 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 26 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias R+1.0pt Across 11 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.0pt.	Mark Kelly 50.0 · Blake Masters 47.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
11/3/2022	KAConsulting	1.08	R(R+3.6)	501	—	LV	1284d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1284d old Poll was fielded 1284 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 46.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1285d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 48.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	HighGround Inc.	1.00	—	500	—	LV	no scored polls1285d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 46.0 · Blake Masters 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Remington Research Group	0.61	neutral(D+0.5)	1075	—	LV	1285d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.5pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.5pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 25 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 47.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1157	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1285d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 45.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Big Data Poll	0.69	R(R+5.8)	1051	—	LV	3 scored polls1285d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 49.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Patriot Polling	1.37	R(R+1.4)	814	—	RV	1285d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. bias R+1.4pt Across 10 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+1.4pt.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 48.0	poll arch
11/2/2022	Civiqs	0.99	L(D+2.5)	852	—	LV	bias D+2.5pt1285d old+2 bias D+2.5pt Across 22 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.5pt. 1285d old Poll was fielded 1285 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 49.0	poll arch
11/1/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	1000	—	LV	1286d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1286d old Poll was fielded 1286 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 48.0 · Marc Victor 3.0	poll arch
10/30/2022	The Phillips Academy	1.00	—	985	—	LV	no scored polls1288d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 47.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
10/30/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1003	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1288d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 45.0	poll arch
10/30/2022	Wick Insights	0.74	R(R+4.0)	1122	—	LV	1288d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1288d old Poll was fielded 1288 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 47.0	poll arch
10/26/2022	Fabrizio, Lee and Associates	1.00	—	800	—	LV	no scored polls1292d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. TV-network-sponsored: NBC News Commissioned by NBC News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 46.0 · Marc Victor 3.0	poll arch
10/26/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	600	—	LV	1292d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 46.0 · Marc Victor 3.0	poll arch
10/26/2022	Siena College/NYT	2.52	—(D+1.3)	604	—	LV	4 scored polls1292d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 2.52 Aggregation weight is 2.52 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Mark Kelly 51.0 · Blake Masters 45.0 · Marc Victor 1.0	poll arch
10/26/2022	BSP Research/Shaw & Co.	1.93	—(D+0.3)	1000	—	RV	4 scored polls1292d old+3 4 scored polls Pollster has only 4 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1292d old Poll was fielded 1292 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. weight 1.93 Aggregation weight is 1.93 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Mark Kelly 44.0 · Blake Masters 40.0	poll arch
10/25/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1293d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1293d old Poll was fielded 1293 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 45.0 · Blake Masters 43.0 · Marc Victor 6.0	poll arch
10/21/2022	co/efficient	0.71	R(R+5.4)	1111	—	LV	historical bias R+5.4pt1297d old+3 historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1297d old Poll was fielded 1297 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 45.0 · Marc Victor 4.0	poll arch
10/18/2022	Susquehanna Polling & Research	1.12	neutral(D+0.1)	600	—	LV	1300d old✓ verified 5d ago+1 1300d old Poll was fielded 1300 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 45.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
10/17/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1078	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1301d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 46.0 · Marc Victor 3.0	poll arch
10/17/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	893	—	LV	1301d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1301d old Poll was fielded 1301 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 47.0 · Marc Victor 3.0	poll arch
10/14/2022	Wick Insights	0.74	R(R+4.0)	1058	—	LV	1304d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1304d old Poll was fielded 1304 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 17 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 46.0	poll arch
10/13/2022	HighGround Inc.	1.00	—	500	—	LV	no scored polls1305d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1305d old Poll was fielded 1305 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 42.0 · Blake Masters 40.0 · Marc Victor 5.0	poll arch
10/11/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1307d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1307d old Poll was fielded 1307 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 46.0 · Blake Masters 42.0 · Marc Victor 5.0	poll arch
10/10/2022	Kurt Jetta	1.00	neutral	894	—	RV	no scored polls1308d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1308d old Poll was fielded 1308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 54.0 · Blake Masters 32.0	poll arch
10/10/2022	Ascend Action	0.30	L(D+13.2)	954	—	LV	weight 0.301308d old+3 weight 0.30 Aggregation weight is 0.30 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight combines historical accuracy, methodology, and recency. 1308d old Poll was fielded 1308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+10.6pt vs editors Across 12 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.6pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 44.0	poll arch
10/10/2022	OnMessage, Inc. *	3.36	neutral(R+0.2)	600	—	LV	1308d oldR+4.1pt vs editors+3 1308d old Poll was fielded 1308 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+4.1pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.36 Aggregation weight is 3.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Mark Kelly 46.0 · Blake Masters 43.0 · Marc Victor 4.0	poll arch
10/6/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	674	—	LV	1312d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1312d old Poll was fielded 1312 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 46.0 · Blake Masters 33.0 · Marc Victor 15.0	poll arch
10/5/2022	Big Data Poll	0.69	R(R+5.8)	970	—	LV	3 scored polls1313d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1313d old Poll was fielded 1313 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 46.0 · Blake Masters 45.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
10/4/2022	YouGov/CBS News	1.00	—	1164	—	RV	no scored polls1314d old+4 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1314d old Poll was fielded 1314 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. TV-network-sponsored: CBS News Commissioned by CBS News, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. tracks editorial consensus Across 11 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 51.0 · Blake Masters 48.0	poll arch
10/2/2022	CNN/SSRS	1.00	—(D+4.4)	900	—	RV	historical bias D+4.4pt1316d old+2 historical bias D+4.4pt Across 17 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+4.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1316d old Poll was fielded 1316 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 52.0 · Blake Masters 42.0	poll arch
9/26/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1008	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1322d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1322d old Poll was fielded 1322 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 46.0 · Blake Masters 40.0	poll arch
9/25/2022	Suffolk University	1.44	neutral(D+0.1)	500	—	LV	1323d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1323d old Poll was fielded 1323 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. bias D+0.1pt Across 15 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+0.1pt. tracks editorial consensus Across 55 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 42.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
9/22/2022	Marist College	1.00	—(D+2.4)	1260	—	RV	bias D+2.4pt1326d old+3 bias D+2.4pt Across 20 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.4pt. 1326d old Poll was fielded 1326 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 44 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 51.0 · Blake Masters 41.0	poll arch
9/19/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	768	—	LV	1329d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1329d old Poll was fielded 1329 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 47.0 · Marc Victor 2.0	poll arch
9/17/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1080	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1331d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1331d old Poll was fielded 1331 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 45.0 · Marc Victor 3.0	poll arch
9/15/2022	Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research	1.00	L	500	—	LV	no scored polls1333d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1333d old Poll was fielded 1333 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 23 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 50.0 · Blake Masters 42.0 · Marc Victor 4.0	poll arch
9/11/2022	OnMessage, Inc. *	3.36	neutral(R+0.2)	400	—	LV	1337d oldR+4.1pt vs editors+3 1337d old Poll was fielded 1337 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+4.1pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. weight 3.36 Aggregation weight is 3.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Mark Kelly 50.0 · Blake Masters 40.0 · Marc Victor 6.0	poll arch
9/10/2022	Kurt Jetta	1.00	neutral	972	—	RV	no scored polls1338d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1338d old Poll was fielded 1338 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 53.0 · Blake Masters 32.0	poll arch
9/9/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	654	—	LV	1339d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1339d old Poll was fielded 1339 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 35.0 · Marc Victor 6.0	poll arch
9/7/2022	Emerson College	1.00	—(D+0.7)	627	—	LV	1341d old✓ verified 5d ago+3 1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom. accurate · bias D+0.7pt Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Blake Masters 45.0	poll arch
9/7/2022	InsiderAdvantage	0.92	R(R+2.6)	550	—	LV	bias R+2.6pt1341d old+3 bias R+2.6pt Across 33 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+2.6pt. 1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. tracks editorial consensus Across 60 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 45.0 · Blake Masters 39.0 · Marc Victor 4.0	poll arch
9/7/2022	Echelon Insights	1.00	—(R+1.0)	773	—	RV	1341d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+2 1341d old Poll was fielded 1341 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 52.0 · Blake Masters 37.0	poll arch
8/27/2022	The Trafalgar Group	0.89	R(R+3.4)	1074	—	LV	historical bias R+3.4pt1352d old+2 historical bias R+3.4pt Across 52 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+3.4pt — a measurable house effect. 1352d old Poll was fielded 1352 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 44.0 · Marc Victor 4.0	poll arch
8/22/2022	RMG Research	0.60	L(D+6.6)	750	—	LV	1357d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1357d old Poll was fielded 1357 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: The Center Square Commissioned by The Center Square, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.	Mark Kelly 50.0 · Blake Masters 43.0	poll arch
8/16/2022	Fox News	1.00	—(D+2.6)	1012	—	RV	bias D+2.6pt1363d old+2 bias D+2.6pt Across 19 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+2.6pt. 1363d old Poll was fielded 1363 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 50.0 · Blake Masters 42.0	poll arch
8/8/2022	Kurt Jetta	1.00	neutral	1107	—	A	no scored pollsadult sample+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. adult sample Adult-population sample (no voter screen) — useful for general public opinion but not directly comparable to LV polls for predicting elections. 1371d old Poll was fielded 1371 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. D+10.4pt vs editors Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 10.4pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 34.0	poll arch
8/2/2022	OnMessage, Inc. *	3.36	neutral(R+0.2)	600	—	LV	1377d oldR+4.1pt vs editors+4 1377d old Poll was fielded 1377 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. R+4.1pt vs editors Across 10 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.1pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. newspaper-sponsored: Politico Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding. weight 3.36 Aggregation weight is 3.36 (1.0 ≈ average). Weight is a derived metric combining historical accuracy, methodology, and recency.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 44.0	poll arch
7/20/2022	Beacon Research	1.00	L	802	—	RV	no scored polls1390d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1390d old Poll was fielded 1390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 34.0	poll arch
7/20/2022	Beacon Research	1.00	L	802	—	RV	no scored polls1390d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1390d old Poll was fielded 1390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Mark Brnovich 35.0	poll arch
7/20/2022	Beacon Research	1.00	L	802	—	RV	no scored polls1390d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1390d old Poll was fielded 1390 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 42 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Jim Lamon 34.0	poll arch
7/14/2022	Fabrizio Lee	1.00	—	800	—	LV	no scored polls1396d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1396d old Poll was fielded 1396 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 44.0	poll arch
7/14/2022	Fabrizio Lee	1.00	—	800	—	LV	no scored polls1396d old+2 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1396d old Poll was fielded 1396 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 45.0	poll arch
6/27/2022	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	705	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt1413d old+3 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 1413d old Poll was fielded 1413 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Blake Masters 39.0	poll arch
6/27/2022	Change Research	0.61	L(D+3.7)	705	—	LV	historical bias D+3.7pt1413d old+3 historical bias D+3.7pt Across 18 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+3.7pt — a measurable house effect. 1413d old Poll was fielded 1413 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 30 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Jim Lamon 41.0	poll arch
5/16/2022	Blueprint Polling	1.00	L	608	—	LV	no scored polls1455d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1455d old Poll was fielded 1455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Blake Masters 32.0	poll arch
5/16/2022	Blueprint Polling	1.00	L	608	—	LV	no scored polls1455d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1455d old Poll was fielded 1455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 50.0 · Mark Brnovich 33.0	poll arch
5/16/2022	Blueprint Polling	1.00	L	608	—	LV	no scored polls1455d old+3 no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. 1455d old Poll was fielded 1455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 112 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 48.0 · Jim Lamon 34.0	poll arch
5/16/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	938	—	RV	1455d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1455d old Poll was fielded 1455 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 40.0	poll arch
3/27/2022	HighGround Public Affairs	0.68	—(R+0.9)	400	—	LV	3 scored polls1505d old+2 3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. 1505d old Poll was fielded 1505 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.	Mark Kelly 45.0	poll arch
3/15/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	753	—	RV	1517d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1517d old Poll was fielded 1517 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 37.0	poll arch
1/24/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1469	—	LV	1567d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1567d old Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Mark Kelly 49.0 · Mark Brnovich 47.0	poll arch
1/24/2022	Data for Progress	1.00	—(D+1.0)	1469	—	LV	1567d oldhigh variance vs editorial consensus+3 1567d old Poll was fielded 1567 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 127 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. accurate · bias D+1.0pt Across 50 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+1.0pt — within ±1pt.	Mark Kelly 50.0 · Doug Ducey 47.0	poll arch
1/13/2022	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	855	—	RV	1578d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1578d old Poll was fielded 1578 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 42.0	poll arch
11/8/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	713	—	RV	1644d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1644d old Poll was fielded 1644 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 40.0	poll arch
9/12/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	882	—	RV	1701d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1701d old Poll was fielded 1701 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 44.0 · Blake Masters 35.0	poll arch
9/12/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	882	—	RV	1701d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1701d old Poll was fielded 1701 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 43.0 · Mark Brnovich 39.0	poll arch
9/12/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	882	—	RV	1701d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1701d old Poll was fielded 1701 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 43.0 · Jim Lamon 36.0	poll arch
9/12/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	882	—	RV	1701d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1701d old Poll was fielded 1701 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 44.0 · Michael McGuire 37.0	poll arch
5/5/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	935	—	RV	1831d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1831d old Poll was fielded 1831 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 46.0 · Mark Brnovich 36.0	poll arch
5/5/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	935	—	RV	1831d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1831d old Poll was fielded 1831 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 44.0 · Michael McGuire 35.0	poll arch
5/5/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	935	—	RV	1831d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1831d old Poll was fielded 1831 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Andy Biggs 36.0	poll arch
5/5/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	935	—	RV	1831d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1831d old Poll was fielded 1831 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 47.0 · Kelli Ward 36.0	poll arch
5/5/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	935	—	RV	1831d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1831d old Poll was fielded 1831 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 46.0 · Kari Lake 35.0	poll arch
5/5/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	935	—	RV	1831d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1831d old Poll was fielded 1831 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 43.0 · Jack McCain 29.0	poll arch
5/5/2021	OH Predictive Insights	1.01	—(R+1.6)	935	—	RV	1831d old✓ verified 5d ago+2 1831d old Poll was fielded 1831 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. ✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. tracks editorial consensus Across 15 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (\|Δ\| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.	Mark Kelly 45.0 · Kimberly Yee 35.0	poll arch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 15 total

Mark Kelly (D)

15 endorsements · source

Elected officials (3)

Christine Todd Whitman — former administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (2001–2003) and former governor of New Jersey (1994–2001) (Forward) [ 11 ]
John Giles — mayor of Mesa (2014–2025) (Republican) [ 12 ]
Miles Taylor — former chief of staff to the U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (2019) (Forward) [ 11 ]

Organizations / unions (4)

Feminist Majority PAC — [ 15 ]
Forward Party — [ 16 ]
Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 20 ]
Population Connection Action Fund — [ 21 ]

Other (8)

314 Action — [ 13 ]
End Citizens United — [ 14 ]
Jewish Dems — [ 17 ]
March On — [ 18 ]
NARAL Pro-Choice America — [ 19 ]
Paul K. Charlton — former United States attorney for the District of Arizona (2001–2007) (Republican) [ 12 ]
Renew America Movement — [ 22 ]
VoteVets.org — [ 23 ]

Money in this race

FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2022-12-28

Total IE spending

$21.5M

For candidates

$3.9M

Against candidates

$17.6M

Latest filing: 12/28/2022
Source: FEC Schedule E

Jim Lamon (R)

$0 for · $11.6M against

Cash on hand

$11K

Total raised (cycle)

$19.6M

Total spent

$19.6M

Debts

$18.5M

Source: FEC

$6.0M against SAVING ARIZONA PAC Super PAC
$3.9M against CRYPTO FREEDOM PAC Super PAC
$1.8M against CLUB FOR GROWTH ACTION Super PAC

Mark Kelly (D)

$1.0M for · $2.6M against

Cash on hand

$1.5M

Total raised (cycle)

$92.8M

Total spent

$92.7M

Debts

Source: FEC

$2.3M against SAVING ARIZONA PAC Super PAC
$297K for PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES Super PAC
$294K against WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC Super PAC
$240K for WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC Super PAC
$179K for LET AMERICA VOTE PAC PAC

Mark Brnovich (R)

$1.8M for · $1.7M against

Cash on hand

$5K

Total raised (cycle)

$3.2M

Total spent

$3.2M

Debts

$461K

Source: FEC

$1.8M for ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARD Super PAC
$1.7M against SAVING ARIZONA PAC Super PAC

Blake Masters (R)

$913K for · $1.7M against

Cash on hand

$100K

Total raised (cycle)

$15.7M

Total spent

$15.6M

Debts

$823K

Source: FEC

$1.4M against PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES Super PAC
$831K for SAVING ARIZONA PAC Super PAC
$190K against SMP Super PAC
$45K against THE LINCOLN PROJECT Super PAC
$29K for FREEDOMWORKS FOR AMERICA Super PAC

Michael McGuire (R)

$120K for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$2K

Total raised (cycle)

$2.7M

Total spent

$2.7M

Debts

$1.1M

Source: FEC

$120K for SECURE ARIZONA'S FUTURE Super PAC

Marc Victor (?)

$0 for · $0 against

Cash on hand

$2K

Total raised (cycle)

$144K

Total spent

$141K

Debts

Source: FEC

Independent expenditures from FEC Schedule E. "For" = pro-candidate ads / mail / digital. "Against" = anti-candidate. Excludes candidate-committee spending and state-level filings (governor races aren't covered here — they file with state agencies).

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

6 raters

Rater	Rating	Updated	Poll D-marg.	Rater marg.	Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	Oct 27	—	0.0	—
DDHQ	Lean D	Oct 25	—	+3.5	—
The Economist	Lean D	Nov 1	—	+3.5	—
FiveThirtyEight	Lean D	Oct 25	—	+3.5	—
Inside Elections	Tilt D	Oct 21	—	+1.3	—
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean D	Oct 19	—	+3.5	—

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 43 months ago (11/7/2022) last market quote — rating computed 1 day ago

Rating history (3 changes)

5/3/2026 Tilt R via pvi held 1286d
10/25/2022 Lean D D+4.9 via polls held 106d
7/11/2022 Likely D D+9.7 via polls