Races · Governor · 2022 · Nevada Governor · open seat
Steve Sisolak vs Joe Lombardo Lean R R +2.3 forecast · 54 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probability poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
35% Sisolak (D)
65% Lombardo (R)
Win probability
Steve Sisolak 35% (D)
Joe Lombardo 65% (R)
Model poliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
Chance of winning across many simulations of the race — not projected vote share.
R+15 R+5 TIED D+5 D+15
Predicted margin
Point estimate R +2.3
80% CI R+14.3 → D+9.7
The model’s central margin (D-positive) with its 80% interval — the shaded band on the scale.
Model's predicted final margin R +2.3 · 80% CI R+14.3 → D+9.7
Actual result R+1.5 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
insufficient data
Momentum
Now —
Window 36 points
How fast the polling margin is shifting, in points per week, and toward which party. The sparkline traces the margin over time.
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Tipping-point P
Now 0.0%
Probability this seat is the pivotal one — the race that decides which party controls the chamber.
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
Market · D-side
Now —
Volume-weighted Democratic win price across prediction-market platforms (in cents = implied %). The sparkline traces it over time.
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
News articles · 30d
Now —
Number of articles about this race indexed in the last 30 days, with the weekly trend.
Where this race stands
Tossup · model 65% R
No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (R+0) suggests Tossup .
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts R+2.3 with an 80% CI ranging from R+14.3 (10th pctile) to D+9.7 (90th pctile), giving R a 65% chance of winning.
CITATIONS · tossup
Steve Sisolak
Stephen F. Sisolak ( / s ɪ s ə l æ k / SISS -əl-ack ; born December 26, 1953) is an American businessman and politician who served as the 30…
35%win R Joseph Michael Lombardo ( / l ə m ˈ b ɑːr d oʊ / ləm- BAR -doh ; born November 8, 1962) is an American politician and former law enforcement…
65%win R Joey Gilbert
Boxer sports agent lawyer
65%win R Dean Heller
Dean Arthur Heller (born May 10, 1960) is an American businessman and politician who served as a United States senator representing Nevada f…
65%win Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +2.3
80% CI: R +14.3 → D +9.7 · win prob 35%
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used 54 Days to election passed Actual result R+1.5 Residual σ 6.00pt Generated 7/1/2026
All polls · 54 results Date Pollster · trust signals n · pop Lean Bias · track vs raters D · R Nov 6, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,089 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 46 · 49 Nov 5, 22 Research Co. +1 450 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.4 50 tracked -0.7 aligned 45 · 47 Nov 5, 22 Data for Progress +1 1,100 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 46 · 48 Nov 3, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 44 · 49 Nov 2, 22 KAConsulting 501 · LV R-LEAN R +3.6 8 tracked -2.3 r lean 43 · 45 Nov 1, 22 Cygnal 600 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.9 54 tracked +1.2 aligned 42 · 47 Oct 28, 22 Emerson College +2 2,000 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 · 49 Oct 27, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 43 · 43 Oct 26, 22 OH Predictive Insights 600 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.6 8 tracked +0.3 aligned 45 · 41 Oct 26, 22 Susquehanna Polling and Research 500 · LV R-LEAN R +1.5 3 tracked +2.4 d lean 44 · 45 Oct 25, 22 Echelon Insights +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.3 6 tracked +3.3 noisy 44 · 45 Oct 23, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,100 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 44 · 51 Oct 23, 22 Siena Research/NYT +1 885 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.2 4 tracked — 45 · 49 Oct 22, 22 Phillips Academy 1,052 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.2 4 tracked +1.7 aligned 50 · 45 Oct 19, 22 InsiderAdvantage +1 550 · LV R-LEAN R +2.8 38 tracked -0.5 aligned 43 · 49 Oct 18, 22 CBS News/YouGov +2 1,057 · LV D-LEAN D +3.4 16 tracked +1.4 aligned 48 · 48 Oct 18, 22 Data for Progress +1 819 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 47 · 48 Oct 18, 22 BSP Research/Shaw & Co. +1 1,000 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.3 4 tracked — 43 · 41 Oct 18, 22 University of Nevada, Reno 585 · LV NEUTRAL — — 47 · 45 Oct 16, 22 Rasmussen Reports 707 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.9 124 tracked -0.9 aligned 42 · 47 Oct 6, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 43 · 44 Oct 1, 22 CNN/SSRS 926 · RV D-LEAN D +4.4 17 tracked +3.0 d lean 46 · 46 Sep 28, 22 OH Predictive Insights 741 · LV NEUTRAL R +1.6 8 tracked +0.3 aligned 42 · 45 Sep 19, 22 Big Data Poll 1,000 · LV NEUTRAL R +6.8 4 tracked -2.3 r lean 40 · 42 Sep 19, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,086 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 45 · 48 Sep 18, 22 Data for Progress +1 874 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.1 51 tracked +0.8 aligned 45 · 45 Sep 9, 22 Emerson College +1 750 · LV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 40 · 40 Aug 23, 22 Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research +1 1,332 · LV D-LEAN — +0.8 aligned 41 · 38 Aug 17, 22 The Trafalgar Group 1,082 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 44 · 46 Aug 16, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 43 · 40 Jul 19, 22 Beacon Research +1 479 · RV D-LEAN — +8.2 d lean 49 · 39 Jul 9, 22 Emerson College +2 2,000 · RV NEUTRAL D +0.7 118 tracked +0.8 aligned 44 · 40 Jul 9, 22 The Tarrance Group +2 600 · LV R-LEAN D +1.1 3 tracked +0.3 noisy 46 · 44 Jun 26, 22 Change Research +1 701 · LV D-LEAN D +3.7 18 tracked +5.7 noisy 46 · 43 Jun 5, 22 WPA Intelligence +1 502 · LV R-LEAN — -1.2 aligned 47 · 48 May 26, 22 University of Nevada, Reno 1,091 · A NEUTRAL — — 43 · 31 May 26, 22 University of Nevada, Reno 1,090 · A NEUTRAL — — 43 · 17 May 26, 22 University of Nevada, Reno 1,094 · A NEUTRAL — — 44 · 21 Apr 8, 22 OH Predictive Insights 748 · RV NEUTRAL R +1.6 8 tracked +0.3 aligned 44 · 35 Apr 8, 22 OH Predictive Insights 748 · RV NEUTRAL R +1.6 8 tracked +0.3 aligned 45 · 31 Apr 8, 22 OH Predictive Insights 748 · RV NEUTRAL R +1.6 8 tracked +0.3 aligned 46 · 33 Apr 5, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 37 · 39 Apr 5, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 39 · 35 Apr 5, 22 Suffolk University +1 500 · LV NEUTRAL D +1.2 21 tracked +0.8 aligned 39 · 39 Mar 23, 22 Blueprint Polling 671 · LV NEUTRAL — +2.4 d lean 40 · 43 Jan 25, 22 OH Predictive Insights 755 · RV NEUTRAL R +1.6 8 tracked +0.3 aligned 52 · 48 Jan 25, 22 OH Predictive Insights 755 · RV NEUTRAL R +1.6 8 tracked +0.3 aligned 54 · 46 Dec 6, 21 Impact Research +1 800 · LV D-LEAN — +10.7 d lean 47 · 45 Dec 6, 21 Impact Research +1 800 · LV D-LEAN — +10.7 d lean 47 · 44 Nov 28, 21 The Trafalgar Group 1,034 · LV R-LEAN R +3.5 53 tracked -2.6 r lean 40 · 47 Nov 17, 21 OnMessage Inc. +1 600 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.2 5 tracked -4.1 r lean 41 · 51 Nov 17, 21 OnMessage Inc. +1 600 · LV NEUTRAL R +0.2 5 tracked -4.1 r lean 43 · 49 Sep 21, 21 The Mellman Group 600 · LV D-LEAN — — 45 · 44 Sep 21, 21 The Mellman Group 600 · LV D-LEAN — — 46 · 43
Endorsements · 6 total Source · Wikipedia · 3 candidates with no endorsements yet 6 Sisolak · 100%
Endorsements tracked
Steve Sisolak 6 · 100%
Joe Lombardo 0 · 0%
Total 6
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
D Steve Sisolak 6 endorsers
Most notable · Las Vegas Sun
Organizations 3
Organizations · 3
Natural Resources Defense Council Nevada AFL–CIO United Auto Workers Other 2
Other · 2
Human Rights Campaign NARAL Pro-Choice America R Joe Lombardo 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
R Joey Gilbert 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
R Dean Heller 0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
Editorial ratings · 5 raters Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al. Tossup 2 Tossup · 2 raters
The Cook Political Report · Mar 3 Inside Elections · Sep 22 Lean R 3 Lean R · 3 raters
Elections Daily · Nov 6 538 · Nov 6 Sabato's Crystal Ball · Nov 6 The Cook Political Report
Tossup Mar 3
Elections Daily
Lean R Nov 6
Inside Elections
Tossup Sep 22
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean R Nov 6
Demographic crosstabs age · education · race · gender No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
Jul 1, 2026 Lean R model Jul 1, 2026 · change
Moved to Lean R
From Tilt R
Model margin R +2.3
Jun 22, 2026 Tilt R model Jun 22, 2026 · change
Moved to Tilt R
From Tossup
Model margin R +1.7
May 15, 2026 Tossup model May 15, 2026 · change
Moved to Tossup
From Tilt R
Model margin D +0.2
May 11, 2026 Tilt R model May 11, 2026 · change
Moved to Tilt R
Model margin R +0.8
Verification trail
Polls verified 52 / 54deterministic
Polls flagged 2needs review
Markets ingested 0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings —no filings yet
Endorsements 6 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage < 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks