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Races · Governor · 2022 · New Mexico
PrimariesThis seat also has primary-season views:Republican primary
Governor · open seat

Michelle Lujan Grisham vs Mark Ronchetti

← New Hampshire GovernorNevada Governor →
Likely DD +7.8 forecast· 31 polls · 0 markets
Model's final pre-election call · win probabilitypoliagg-v34 · final pre-election call
90% Grisham (D)
10% Ronchetti (R)
R+15R+5TIEDD+5D+15
Model's predicted final margin D +7.8 · 80% CI R+4.2 → D+19.8
Actual result Michelle Lujan GrishamHowie Morales +6.4 · backtest (race already called)
Momentum
—
insufficient data
Tipping-point P
0.0%
Decisive for chamber control
Market · D-side
—
Cross-platform consensus
News articles · 30d
—
no recent coverage
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt D · model 90% D

No recent polls or markets for this race. PVI baseline (D+3) suggests Tilt D.

The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+7.8 with an 80% CI ranging from R+4.2 (10th pctile) to D+19.8 (90th pctile), giving D a 90% chance of winning.

CITATIONS · tilt-d
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +7.8
80% CI: R +4.2 → D +19.8 · win prob 90%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used31
Days to electionpassed
Actual resultMichelle Lujan GrishamHowie Morales +6.4
Residual σ6.00pt
Generated7/1/2026

Polling average

Latest poll · 8 candidates

This race has 8 polled candidates — too many for a readable time-series chart. Showing the latest aggregated polling average per candidate instead. The All polls table below has full per-poll detail.

DMichelle Lujan Grisham48.7%
REPMark V. Ronchetti43.3%
RMark Ronchetti42.5%
RGregory Zanetti38.0%
RJay Block37.0%
RRebecca Dow36.0%
REthel Maharg32.0%
LKaren Bedonie3.5%

All polls · 31 results

strongpositiveinfocautionflag
DatePollster · trust signalsn · popLeanBias · trackvs ratersD · R
Oct 27, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned49 · 46
Oct 26, 22Research & Polling Inc.+11,254 · LVNEUTRALR +0.76 tracked-5.3noisy50 · 42
Oct 26, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned50
Oct 25, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA650 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned46 · 39
Oct 23, 22Research & Polling Inc.1,254 · unknownNEUTRALR +0.76 tracked-5.3noisy50
Oct 22, 22SurveyUSA650 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned46
Oct 20, 22The Trafalgar GroupFor · The Trafalgar Group1,077 · LVR-LEANR +3.553 tracked-2.6r lean46 · 47
Oct 19, 22Trafalgar Group1,077 · unknownR-LEANR +2.16 tracked-4.1r lean46
Oct 6, 22Public Policy PollingFor · New Mexico Political Report806 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48 · 40
Oct 5, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA570 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned53 · 37
Oct 5, 22Public Policy Polling806 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy48
Oct 2, 22SurveyUSA570 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned53
Sep 28, 22Cygnal400 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned46 · 44
Sep 27, 22Cygnal400 · unknownNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned46
Sep 11, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA558 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 36
Sep 10, 22Emerson College+1For · Emerson Polling1,000 · LVNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned48 · 43
Sep 9, 22SurveyUSA558 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned48
Sep 9, 22Emerson College1,000 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.7118 tracked+0.8aligned48
Aug 24, 22Research & Polling Inc.+1518 · LVNEUTRALR +0.76 tracked-5.3noisy47 · 40
Jun 16, 22GQR Research+1500 · LVD-LEAN—+6.0noisy48 · 44
Jun 13, 22Public Policy PollingFor · NM Political642 · unknownNEUTRALD +0.9104 tracked+2.4noisy45 · 42
Jun 13, 22Public Opinion Strategies+1600 · LVNEUTRALR +7.33 tracked-2.7r lean45 · 46
May 6, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,389 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned47 · 43
May 6, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,389 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned47 · 37
May 6, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,389 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 36
May 6, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,389 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 32
May 6, 22SurveyUSA+1For · SurveyUSA1,389 · LVNEUTRALD +0.194 tracked-0.5aligned48 · 36
Jan 3, 22Cygnal531 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 42
Jan 3, 22Cygnal531 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 36
Jan 3, 22Cygnal531 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned43 · 38
Jul 7, 21CygnalFor · Cygnal600 · LVNEUTRALD +1.954 tracked+1.2aligned45
· 31 polls · 10 per page

Endorsements · 2 total

Source · Wikipedia · 7 candidates with no endorsements yet
2Grisham · 100%
DMichelle Lujan Grisham2 endorsers
Most notable · Howie Morales · incumbent lieutenant governor (2019–present)
Elected officials1
Federal 0State 1Local 0
Other1
RMark Ronchetti0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
LKaren Bedonie0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REPMark V. Ronchetti0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RJay Block0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RRebecca Dow0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
REthel Maharg0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.
RGregory Zanetti0 endorsers
no endorsers yet
No endorsements found yet. Endorsements come from the candidate's Wikipedia article (when one exists) and update with the daily scrape.

Editorial ratings · 5 raters

Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.
Likely D1
Lean D3
Tilt D1
The Cook Political Report
Lean D
Jun 7
Elections Daily
Lean D
Nov 6
538
Likely D
Jul 30
Inside Elections
Tilt D
Nov 2
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Lean D
Jan 25

Demographic crosstabs

age · education · race · gender
No demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
Rating timeline
May 11, 2026Likely Dmodel
Verification trail
Polls verified22 / 31deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested0 platformsnone listed
FEC filings—no filings yet
Endorsements2 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage< 5 articlesGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks