Pollster · 64 of 1769
Siena College
Polls scored
17
Mean error
4.7 pt
Signed bias
D+1.16
Aggregation weight
0.85
Pollster vs prediction market
From 188 race-polls · 29 matched marketsPre-poll P(D) (avg)
79.3%
Market price the day before each poll dropped
Post-poll market shift
-0.1 pt
Average move within 24h of release (D+ = market moved toward D)
Market alignment
+10.9 pt
Net direction markets moved toward Siena College's read
Composite quality score
0–100 · weighted of 5 measured components60
of 100 · tier · moderate
Moderate quality. Worth checking individual signals before relying on this pollster's headline.
Pollster vs editorial consensus
alignedAcross 55 graded races, Siena College's released topline differed from the median editorial-rater consensus by an average of +1.2pp. That's well-aligned with the consensus — useful as a sanity check, less useful as a contrarian signal.
Mean delta
+1.2pp
Median delta
+1.0pp
Std-dev
7.1pp
N graded
55
Recent activity
Total all time
188
Last 30d
12
Last 90d
14
Last 180d
23
Per-cycle debrief appearances
| Cycle | Rank | Polls | MAE | Signed bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | #19 / 36 | 7 | 3.89 pt | D+3.21 pp |
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