Races · Governor · 2026 · New York
Governor · open seat
Kathy Hochul vs Bruce Blakeman
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 98% D
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+14.8, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+18.1 with an 80% CI ranging from D+7.1 (10th pctile) to D+29.1 (90th pctile), giving D a 98% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 14.8% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward D at +7.3pp/wk over the 30d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 61/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (22.0pp); thin polling (4 polls in last 60 days). Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · trending-d · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
61
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement14
2.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution14 / 100
Measured2.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion48
4.8pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution48 / 100
Measured4.8pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity50
4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution50 / 100
Measured4 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +18.1
80% CI: D +7.1 → D +29.1 · win prob 98%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · medium
| Polls used | 38 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +15.2
80% CI R +26.9 → D +17.3
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +16.2
80% CI D +14.8 → D +17.7
CV MAE 1.13
consensusMarket-implied
D +13.0
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 91¢2 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 41 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 91% · polls 51%.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
4 polls · through Jun 26, 2026 · latest Siena College
Kathy Hochul
VoteHub48.8%
VoteHub
Polling average48.8%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg50.6%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average50.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 1.8 pt below our average
Bruce Blakeman
VoteHub31.0%
VoteHub
Polling average31.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg33.6%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average33.6%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 2.6 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 4 polls (through Jun 26, 2026): Kathy Hochul 48.8%, Bruce Blakeman 31.0%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 38 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 26 | Siena College | 1,120 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 52 · 32 |
| Jun 22, 26 | Siena CollegeFor · Siena College | 1,120 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 52 · 32 |
| Jun 16, 26 | Pollfinity Research | 229 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 46 · 35 |
| Jun 13, 26 | Pollfinity Research | 229 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 50 · 40 |
| May 4, 26 | Siena College+1For · Siena College | 806 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 49 · 33 |
| Apr 29, 26 | Siena College+1For · Siena College | 806 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 49 · 33 |
| Mar 30, 26 | Siena College+1For · Siena College | 804 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 47 · 34 |
| Mar 29, 26 | Echelon Insights+2For · Politico | 500 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 55 · 40 |
| Mar 25, 26 | Siena College+1For · Siena College | 804 · RV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 47 · 34 |
| Mar 25, 26 | Echelon Insights/Tusk StrategiesFor · Tusk Strategies | 500 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 55 · 40 |
Endorsements · 124 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet114
10
Endorsements tracked
Kathy Hochul114 · 92%
Bruce Blakeman10 · 8%
Total124
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DKathy Hochul114 endorsers
Most notable · Andrea Stewart-Cousins · majority leader of the New York State Senate (2019–present) from SD-35 (2007–present)
Elected officials88
Federal 21State 51Local 15
Elected officials · 88
- Andrea Stewart-Cousins · majority leader of the New York State Senate (2019–present) from SD-35 (2007–present)
- Crystal Peoples-Stokes · majority leader of the New York State Assembly (2018–present) from AD-141 (2003–present)
- Hakeem Jeffries · House minority leader (2023–present) from NY-08 (2013–present)
- Michaelle C. Solages · deputy majority leader of the New York State Assembly from AD-22 (2013–present)
- Carl Heastie · speaker of the New York State Assembly (2015–present) from AD-83 (2001–present)
- Frank Seddio · former AD-59 (1999–2006) and former chair of the Brooklyn Democratic Party (2012–2020)
- Gregory Meeks · NY-5 (1998–present) and chair of the Queens Democratic Party (2019–present)
- Jamaal Bailey · SD-36 (2017–present) and chair of the Bronx Democratic Party (2020–present)
- Jay Jacobs · chair of the New York State Democratic Party (2019–present)
- Keith Wright · former AD-70 (1993–2016) and chair of the Manhattan Democratic Party (2009–present)
- Phil Ramos · deputy speaker of the New York State Assembly (2015–2020, 2023–present) from AD-06 (2003–present)
- Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn · AD-42 (2015–present) and chair of the Brooklyn Democratic Party (2020–present)
- Letitia James · attorney general of New York (2019–present)
- Adriano Espaillat · NY-13 (2017–present)
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · NY-14 (2019–present)
- Amy Paulin · AD-88 (2001–present)
- Andrew Gounardes · SD-26 (2019–present)
- Bill Magnarelli · AD-129 (1999–present)
- Brian Cunningham · AD-43 (2022–present)
- Chantel Jackson · AD-79 (2021–present)
- Charles D. Lavine · AD-13 (2005–present)
- Chris Burdick · AD-93 (2021–present)
- Chris Ryan · SD-50 (2025–present)
- Dan Goldman · NY-10 (2023–present)
- Dana Levenberg · AD-95 (2023–present)
- Emerita Torres · AD-85 (2025–present)
- George Alvarez · AD-78 (2023–present)
- George Latimer · NY-16 (2025–present)
- Grace Meng · NY-6 (2013–present)
- J. Gary Pretlow · AD-89 (1993–present)
- Jeffrey Dinowitz · AD-81 (1994–present)
- Jeremy Cooney · SD-56 (2021–present)
- Jeremy Zellner · SD-61 (2026–present)
- Jerry Nadler · NY-12 (1992–present)
- John Mannion · NY-22 (2025–present)
- John Zaccaro · AD-80 (2023–present)
- Joseph Morelle · NY-25 (2018–present)
- Josh Riley · NY-19 (2025–present)
- José M. Serrano · SD-29 (2005–present)
- Karines Reyes · AD-87 (2019–present)
- Kwani O'Pharrow · AD-11 (2025–present)
- Landon Dais · AD-77 (2024–present)
- Laura Gillen · NY-4 (2025–present)
- Luis R. Sepúlveda · SD-32 (2018–present)
- MaryJane Shimsky · AD-92 (2023–present)
- Michael Benedetto · AD-82 (2005–present)
- Monica Martinez · SD-04 (2023–present) and SD-03 (2019–2020)
- Nader Sayegh · AD-90 (2019–present)
- Nathalia Fernandez · SD-34 (2023–present)
- Noah Burroughs · AD-18 (2025–present)
- Nydia Velázquez · NY-7 (1993–present)
- Pat Ryan · NY-18 (2022–present)
- Paul Tonko · NY-20 (2009–present)
- Peter Harckham · SD-40 (2019–present)
- Rachel May · SD-48 (2019–present)
- Rebecca Kassay · AD-04 (2025–present)
- Ritchie Torres · NY-15 (2021–present)
- Robert Carroll · AD-44 (2017–present)
- Shelley Mayer · SD-37 (2018–present)
- Siela Bynoe · SD-06 (2025–present)
- Steve Stern · AD-10 (2018–present)
- Steven Otis · AD-91 (2013–present)
- Tim Kennedy · NY-26 (2024–present)
- Tommy John Schiavoni · AD-01 (2025–present)
- Yudelka Tapia · AD-86 (2021–present)
- Yvette Clarke · NY-9 (2007–present)
- Al Stirpe · AD-127 (2007–2010, 2013–present)
- Amanda Farías · New York City councilmember from the 18th district (2022–present)
- Ed Towns · former NY-10 (1983–2013)
- Elsie Encarnacion · New York City councilmember from the 8th district (2026–present)
- Eric Dinowitz · New York City councilmember from the 11th district (2021–present)
- Judy Griffin · AD-21 (2019–2022, 2025–present)
- Justin Sanchez · New York City councilmember from the 17th district (2026–present)
- Ken Jenkins · county executive for Westchester County (2025–present)
- Kevin Riley · New York City councilmember from the 12th district (2021–present)
- Malik Evans · mayor of Rochester (2022–present)
- Mark Levine · comptroller of New York City (2026–present)
- Mark Poloncarz · county executive for Erie County (2012–present)
- Mike Spano · mayor of Yonkers (2012–present)
- Oswald Feliz · New York City councilmember from the 15th district (2021–present)
- Pamela Hunter · speaker pro tempore of the New York State Assembly (2025–present) from AD-128 (2015–present)
- Pierina Sanchez · New York City councilmember from the 14th district (2022–present)
- Sean Ryan · mayor of Buffalo (2026–present)
- Sharon Owens · mayor of Syracuse (2026–present)
- Shirley Aldebol · New York City councilmember from the 13th district (2026–present)
- Tom Suozzi · NY-03 (2017–2023, 2024–present)
- Vanessa Gibson · borough president of the Bronx (2022–present)
- Zohran Mamdani · mayor of New York City (2026–present)
Organizations26
Organizations · 26
- 1199SEIU United Healthcare Workers East
- AFL-CIO · k State AFL-CIO
- Alliance for Retired Americans · tired Americans
- Brooklyn Democratic Party
- Cayuga County · Democratic Party
- Civil Service Employees Association
- Clinton County · Democratic Committee
- Communications Workers of America · District 1
- Democratic Governors Association
- District Council 37
- EMILY's List
- End Citizens United
- Erie County Democratic Committee
- Giffords
- Hotel and Gaming Trades Council
- International Union of Operating Engineers · Local 825
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- LIUNA · Local 79
- Laborers' International Union of North America
- New York State Democratic Committee
- New York State United Teachers
- People for the American Way
- Professional Staff Congress
- Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union
- SEIU 32BJ
- Stonewall Democrats · of New York City
RBruce Blakeman10 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials6
Federal 2State 2Local 0
Elected officials · 6
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- Edward F. Cox · chair of the New York Republican Party (2009–2019, 2023–present)
- Jerry Kassar · chair of the Conservative Party of New York State (2019–present)
- George Pataki · former governor of New York (1995–2006)
- Jenniffer González-Colón · governor of Puerto Rico (2025–present)
- Nick LaLota · NY-01 (2023–present)
Organizations4
Organizations · 4
- Clinton County · Republican Committee
- Conservative Party of New York State
- New York Republican State Committee
- Transport Workers Union · Locals 106 and 252
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Bruce Blakeman
Receipts
$8.6M
Disburse
$8.6M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Safe D3
Safe D · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
Cook Political Report
Safe DInside Elections
Likely DRealClearPolitics
Safe DSabato's Crystal Ball
Safe DDemographic crosstabs
6 polls with subgroup dataAge
18-34D +35
58%23%
Age · 18-34
Democrat58%
Republican23%
Other / undecided19%
MarginD +35
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
35-54D +11
47%36%
Age · 35-54
Democrat47%
Republican36%
Other / undecided17%
MarginD +11
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
55+D +22
55%33%
Age · 55+
Democrat55%
Republican33%
Other / undecided12%
MarginD +22
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
Ideology
LibD +80
86%6%
Ideology · Lib
Democrat86%
Republican6%
Other / undecided8%
MarginD +80
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
ModD +27
53%26%
Ideology · Mod
Democrat53%
Republican26%
Other / undecided21%
MarginD +27
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
Income
$100KD +27
57%30%
Income · $100K
Democrat57%
Republican30%
Other / undecided13%
MarginD +27
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
Party
DemD +70
78%8%
Party · Dem
Democrat78%
Republican8%
Other / undecided14%
MarginD +70
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
RepR +67
12%79%
Party · Rep
Democrat12%
Republican79%
Other / undecided9%
MarginR +67
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
Race
OtherD +46
64%18%
Race · Other
Democrat64%
Republican18%
Other / undecided18%
MarginD +46
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
WhiteD +8
48%40%
Race · White
Democrat48%
Republican40%
Other / undecided12%
MarginD +8
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
Religion
JewishR +2
43%45%
Religion · Jewish
Democrat43%
Republican45%
Other / undecided12%
MarginR +2
Siena College · field end 2026-06-23
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
60 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles60
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.08
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.10 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.08
Week-over-weekshift −0.10 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 10%
Neutral 88%
R 2%
12% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets10%
Neutral88%
R-leaning outlets2%
12% of outlets classified by editorial lean
N
Governor Hochul Announces Admission Tickets and Parking Vouchers for The 2026 Great New York State Fair Go On Sale July 7
G
Governor Hochul Announces $100 Million State Investment in Law Enforcement Technology and Equipment
H
Governor Hochul Announces Start of Construction for $167 Million Chelsea Beacon Redevelopment to Transform Former Vacant Bayview Correctional Facility
F
Gov. Hochul asks New Yorkers to conserve electricity during prolonged heat wave
C
TWU to Big Labor: don’t endorse Hochul
D
Governor Hochul Issues New Guidance to Implement Reforms Aimed at Lowering Auto Insurance Premiums For New Yorkers
C
Communications Workers of America District 1 Announces Endorsement of Kathy Hochul for Governor, Adrienne Adams for Lieutenant Governor, and Letitia James for Attorney General
1
Governor Hochul announces events in New York City for America’s 250th birthday
G
Governor Hochul Joins With Sail4th 250 and New York City, Navy and Coast Guard Officials to Detail Plans to Celebrate America’s 250th Birthday
H
Governor Hochul Announces $45.9 Million Funding Available to Develop Additional Supportive Housing Units Statewide
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified35 / 38deterministic
Polls flagged1needs review
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements222 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks