| 3/26/2026 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 804 | ±4.5 | RV | ⚪✓ verified 5d ago⚪registered voters+1- ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 47.0 · Bruce Blakeman 34.0 | pollarch |
| 3/26/2026 | Echelon Insights/Tusk Strategies | 1.00 | — | 500 | ±5.4 | RV | 🟡no scored polls⚪✓ verified 5d ago+1- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kathy Hochul 55.0 · Bruce Blakeman 40.0 | pollarch |
| 3/8/2026 | McLaughlin & Associates | 1.00 | — | 800 | ±3.5 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
63d old Poll was fielded 63 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
high variance vs editorial consensus Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 11 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 52.0 · Bruce Blakeman 43.0 | pollarch |
| 2/26/2026 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 805 | ±4.5 | RV | 🟡73d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
73d old Poll was fielded 73 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 51.0 · Bruce Blakeman 31.0 | pollarch |
| 2/19/2026 | Marist University | 1.00 | — | 1442 | ±3.3 | RV | 🟡no scored polls🟡80d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
80d old Poll was fielded 80 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kathy Hochul 50.0 · Bruce Blakeman 33.0 | pollarch |
| 2/4/2026 | MAD Global Strategy | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡95d old+3- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
95d old Poll was fielded 95 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls. - 🔵
newspaper-sponsored: Yonkers Times Commissioned by Yonkers Times, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
| Kathy Hochul 47.0 · Bruce Blakeman 34.0 | pollarch |
| 1/28/2026 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 802 | ±4.3 | RV | 🟡102d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
102d old Poll was fielded 102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 54.0 · Bruce Blakeman 28.0 | pollarch |
| 1/28/2026 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 802 | ±4.3 | RV | 🟡102d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
102d old Poll was fielded 102 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 42.0 | pollarch |
| 1/8/2026 | John Zogby Strategies | 1.00 | — | 844 | ±3.4 | LV | 🟡no scored polls🟡122d old+2- 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
122d old Poll was fielded 122 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 53.0 · Bruce Blakeman 39.0 | pollarch |
| 12/12/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 801 | ±4.1 | RV | 🟡149d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
149d old Poll was fielded 149 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 50.0 · Bruce Blakeman 25.0 | pollarch |
| 12/12/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 801 | ±4.1 | RV | 🟡149d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
149d old Poll was fielded 149 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 49.0 · Elise Stefanik 30.0 | pollarch |
| 11/12/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 802 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡179d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
179d old Poll was fielded 179 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 52.0 · Elise Stefanik 32.0 | pollarch |
| 11/12/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 802 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟡179d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
179d old Poll was fielded 179 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 42.0 | pollarch |
| 11/10/2025 | J.L. Partners | 1.00 | R | 500 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
181d old Poll was fielded 181 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 47.0 · Bruce Blakeman 36.0 | pollarch |
| 11/10/2025 | J.L. Partners | 1.00 | R | 500 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
181d old Poll was fielded 181 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 46.0 · Elise Stefanik 43.0 | pollarch |
| 11/10/2025 | J.L. Partners | 1.00 | R | 500 | ±4.4 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
181d old Poll was fielded 181 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 45.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2025 | Manhattan Institute | 1.00 | R | 900 | ±3.3 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
196d old Poll was fielded 196 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 42.0 · Elise Stefanik 43.0 | pollarch |
| 10/26/2025 | Manhattan Institute | 1.00 | R | 900 | ±3.3 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
196d old Poll was fielded 196 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Antonio Delgado 37.0 · Elise Stefanik 43.0 | pollarch |
| 9/26/2025 | GrayHouse | 1.00 | R | 1250 | ±2.6 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
226d old Poll was fielded 226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 48.0 · Elise Stefanik 43.0 | pollarch |
| 9/26/2025 | GrayHouse | 1.00 | R | 1250 | ±2.6 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
226d old Poll was fielded 226 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 34.0 | pollarch |
| 9/10/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 802 | ±4.2 | RV | 🟡242d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
242d old Poll was fielded 242 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 52.0 · Elise Stefanik 27.0 | pollarch |
| 9/10/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 802 | ±4.2 | RV | 🟡242d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
242d old Poll was fielded 242 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 37.0 | pollarch |
| 8/7/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 813 | ±4.2 | RV | 🟡276d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
276d old Poll was fielded 276 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 45.0 · Elise Stefanik 31.0 | pollarch |
| 8/7/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 813 | ±4.2 | RV | 🟡276d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
276d old Poll was fielded 276 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 35.0 | pollarch |
| 6/26/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 800 | ±4.4 | RV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡318d old+2- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 63.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
318d old Poll was fielded 318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 44.0 · Bruce Blakeman 19.0 | pollarch |
| 6/26/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 800 | ±4.4 | RV | 🟡318d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
318d old Poll was fielded 318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 47.0 · Elise Stefanik 24.0 | pollarch |
| 6/26/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 800 | ±4.4 | RV | 🟠flagged on verification🟡318d old+2- 🟠
flagged on verification Automated verification flagged this poll: results sum to 68.0% (expected ~100; n=2 cands, floor=70). Either the scrape misread the source table or the source itself looks unusual. Cross-check the citation URL before relying on this row. - 🟡
318d old Poll was fielded 318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 44.0 · Mike Lawler 24.0 | pollarch |
| 6/26/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 800 | ±4.4 | RV | 🟡318d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
318d old Poll was fielded 318 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 37.0 | pollarch |
| 5/15/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 805 | ±4.3 | RV | 🟡360d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
360d old Poll was fielded 360 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 36.0 | pollarch |
| 5/9/2025 | Harper Polling | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
366d old Poll was fielded 366 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 50.0 · Elise Stefanik 39.0 | pollarch |
| 5/9/2025 | Harper Polling | 1.00 | — | 600 | ±4.0 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
366d old Poll was fielded 366 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 48.0 · Mike Lawler 41.0 | pollarch |
| 5/2/2025 | co/efficient | 0.71 | R(R+5.4) | 1163 | ±3.3 | LV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R)🟠historical bias R+5.4pt+4- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: efficient (R) This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (efficient (R)). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟠
historical bias R+5.4pt Across 12 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is R+5.4pt — a measurable house effect. - 🟡
373d old Poll was fielded 373 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - 🟡
R+4.4pt vs editors Across 18 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 4.4pt MORE R-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic R-lean relative to conventional wisdom. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
likely-voter screen Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
| Kathy Hochul 43.0 · Elise Stefanik 42.0 | pollarch |
| 4/24/2025 | GrayHouse | 1.00 | R | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
381d old Poll was fielded 381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kathy Hochul 44.0 · Bruce Blakeman 36.0 | pollarch |
| 4/24/2025 | GrayHouse | 1.00 | R | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
381d old Poll was fielded 381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kathy Hochul 46.0 · Elise Stefanik 40.0 | pollarch |
| 4/24/2025 | GrayHouse | 1.00 | R | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
381d old Poll was fielded 381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kathy Hochul 45.0 · Mike Lawler 38.0 | pollarch |
| 4/24/2025 | GrayHouse | 1.00 | R | 600 | ±4.0 | RV | 🟠commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by R-aligned: Internal R-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Republican-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal R-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
381d old Poll was fielded 381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kathy Hochul 27.0 | pollarch |
| 4/16/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 802 | ±4.4 | RV | 🟡389d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
389d old Poll was fielded 389 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 39.0 | pollarch |
| 3/6/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 806 | ±4.3 | RV | 🟡430d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
430d old Poll was fielded 430 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 34.0 | pollarch |
| 2/10/2025 | Citizen Data | 0.61 | —(D+6.6) | 1000 | ±3.1 | RV | 🟡3 scored polls🟡454d old+2- 🟡
3 scored polls Pollster has only 3 historical polls with a known outcome to score against — too few for stable accuracy estimates. - 🟡
454d old Poll was fielded 454 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kathy Hochul 46.0 · Mike Lawler 38.0 | pollarch |
| 1/30/2025 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 803 | ±4.2 | RV | 🟡465d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
465d old Poll was fielded 465 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 31.0 | pollarch |
| 12/5/2024 | Siena College | 0.80 | —(D+1.1) | 1059 | ±4.1 | RV | 🟡521d old⚪✓ verified 5d ago+2- 🟡
521d old Poll was fielded 521 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize. - 🔵
bias D+1.1pt Across 13 historical scored polls the average error vs. actual margin is D+1.1pt.
| Kathy Hochul 33.0 | pollarch |
| 5/3/2024 | Slingshot Strategies | 1.00 | L | 1059 | ±5.0 | RV | 🟠commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned🟡no scored polls+3- 🟠
commissioned by D-aligned: Internal D-aligned This poll was commissioned by a Democratic-aligned committee, party, or PAC (Internal D-aligned). Such polls historically lean toward their sponsor. - 🟡
no scored polls Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured. - 🟡
737d old Poll was fielded 737 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average. - ⚪
✓ verified 5d ago auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched. - ⚪
registered voters Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
| Kathy Hochul 34.0 | pollarch |