Races · Senate · 2026 · OH
Senate · class II · open seat

Sherrod Brown vs Jon Husted

Tilt R R +1.3 · 176 days to election · 13 polls · 2 markets Last poll 26d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Where this race stands
Verified

Tilt R · model 88% R

tilt-r · low-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +5.1
80% CI: R +9.5R +0.7 · win prob 12%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used13
Days to election181
Residual σ3.44pt
Generated5/6/2026
Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +13.6
80% CI R +15.7R +8.5
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
R +1.7
80% CI R +3.2R +0.3
CV MAE 1.15
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +5.1
80% CI R +9.5R +0.7
CV MAE 3.44

Polling average

Simple Weighted House-corrected Trimmed LOESS Kalman
Method:Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
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All polls · 13 results

13 of 13 polls
EndPollsterWeightLeanSampleMoEPopTrust signalsResultsSource
4/14/2026Bowling Green State University/YouGov1.001000RV
no scored polls✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Jon Husted 50.0 · Sherrod Brown 47.0pollarch
4/9/2026Echelon Insights1.00(R+1.0)413LV
high variance vs editorial consensus✓ verified 5d ago+1
  • high variance vs editorial consensus
    Stdev of (poll − rater consensus) across 45 historical paired polls exceeds 8pt — this pollster's results swing widely relative to where the editors place the same races.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jon Husted 51.0 · Sherrod Brown 45.0pollarch
3/14/2026Quantus Insights1.00R784LV
no scored pollsD+5.2pt vs editors+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • D+5.2pt vs editors
    Across 5 historical polls where ≥2 editorial raters had rated the race (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.), this pollster's D-margin averaged 5.2pt MORE D-favorable than the rater consensus. Systematic D-lean relative to conventional wisdom.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jon Husted 46.0 · Sherrod Brown 44.0pollarch
3/8/2026OnMessage Public Strategies1.00R600LV
no scored polls63d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 63d old
    Poll was fielded 63 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
  • newspaper-sponsored: Politico
    Commissioned by Politico, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Jon Husted 45.0 · Sherrod Brown 47.0pollarch
2/22/2026EMC Research1.00L1343LV
no scored polls77d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 77d old
    Poll was fielded 77 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • uncorrelated with editorial consensus
    Across 38 historical paired polls, this pollster's margins don't track the editorial consensus (Pearson r < 0.5). Independence from consensus is informational — could indicate genuine methodological independence or noisy results.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jon Husted 47.0 · Sherrod Brown 51.0pollarch
12/8/2025Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)850RV
153d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 153d old
    Poll was fielded 153 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Jon Husted 49.0 · Sherrod Brown 46.0pollarch
10/14/2025Bowling Green State University/YouGov1.00800RV
no scored polls208d old+3
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 208d old
    Poll was fielded 208 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • university-sponsored: Bowling Green State University
    Commissioned by Bowling Green State University, an independent media or academic sponsor. Independent sponsorship doesn't guarantee accuracy but rules out direct campaign funding.
Jon Husted 48.0 · Sherrod Brown 49.0pollarch
9/22/2025Hart Research1.00L800LV
no scored polls230d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 230d old
    Poll was fielded 230 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • likely-voter screen
    Likely-voter screen — pollster filters respondents by reported turnout intent. Generally tighter for predicting elections than registered- or adult-population polls.
Jon Husted 45.0 · Sherrod Brown 48.0pollarch
8/19/2025Emerson College1.00(D+0.7)1000RV
264d old✓ verified 5d ago+3
  • 264d old
    Poll was fielded 264 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
  • tracks editorial consensus
    Across 234 historical paired polls, this pollster's D-margins track the rater consensus (Cook / Sabato / IE / 538 / DDHQ etc.) with high correlation (r ≥ 0.85) and small mean delta (|Δ| ≤ 2pt). Their results align with conventional wisdom.
  • accurate · bias D+0.7pt
    Across 117 historical scored polls this pollster's average error vs. actual margin is D+0.7pt — within ±1pt.
Jon Husted 50.0 · Sherrod Brown 44.0pollarch
4/24/2025Bowling Green State University/YouGov1.00800RV
no scored polls381d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 381d old
    Poll was fielded 381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Jon Husted 49.0 · Sherrod Brown 46.0pollarch
4/24/2025Bowling Green State University/YouGov1.00800RV
no scored polls381d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 381d old
    Poll was fielded 381 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Jon Husted 50.0 · Tim Ryan 44.0pollarch
2/21/2025Bowling Green State University/YouGov1.00800RV
no scored polls443d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 443d old
    Poll was fielded 443 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Jon Husted 47.0 · Sherrod Brown 41.0pollarch
2/21/2025Bowling Green State University/YouGov1.00800RV
no scored polls443d old+2
  • no scored polls
    Pollster has no historical polls with a known outcome in our database, so accuracy and bias cannot be measured.
  • 443d old
    Poll was fielded 443 days ago. Older polls reflect an earlier state of the race and are weighted down in the rolling average.
  • ✓ verified 5d ago
    auto-checked on 5/4/2026. Deterministic checks confirmed bounds + structure (percentages in [0,100], totals plausibly close to 100%, dates ordered). Source page itself was not re-fetched.
  • registered voters
    Registered-voter sample — broader than likely-voter screens; typical for early-cycle polling before turnout signals stabilize.
Jon Husted 45.0 · Tim Ryan 38.0pollarch

Trust signals are deterministic flags computed from the pollster scorecard (track-record size, historical bias, aggregation weight) and the poll itself (sample size, population, age, citation availability). No interpretation; click any row to see the cited numbers behind each flag.

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 28 total
Jon Husted (R)
28 endorsements · source
Elected officials (3)
  • Dave Yost — attorney general of Ohio (2019–present) [ 19 ]
  • Donald Trump — 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present) [ 12 ]
  • Frank LaRose — secretary of state of Ohio (2019–present) [ 14 ]
Organizations / unions (10)
  • ClearPath Foundation — [ 29 ]
  • Cleveland Building and Construction Trades Council — [ 23 ]
  • International Union of Operating Engineers — Locals 18 & 66 [ 25 ] [ 26 ]
  • National Border Patrol Council — [ 27 ]
  • National Federation of Independent Business — [ 30 ]
  • Northwest Ohio Building & Construction Trades Council — [ 28 ]
  • Ohio Cattlemen's Association — [ 32 ]
  • Ohio Republican Party — [ 37 ]
  • Pike County Republican Party — [ 35 ]
  • Warren County Republican Party — [ 36 ]
Other (15)
  • Bernie Moreno — Ohio (2025–present) [ 14 ]
  • Bob Latta — OH-05 (2007–present) [ 15 ]
  • Cynthia Lummis — Wyoming (2021–present) [ 13 ]
  • David Taylor — OH-02 (2025–present) [ 16 ]
  • International Brotherhood of Boilermakers — [ 24 ]
  • Jim Jordan — OH-04 (2007–present) [ 14 ]
  • Keith Faber — auditor of state of Ohio (2019–present) [ 17 ]
  • Ohio Right to Life — [ 33 ]
  • Ohio county sheriffs — ffs [ 21 ]
  • Robert Sprague — treasurer of Ohio (2019–present) [ 18 ]
  • Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America — [ 34 ]
  • Tim Scott — South Carolina (2013–present) [ 14 ]
  • Vivek Ramaswamy — founder of Roivant Sciences and 2026 gubernatorial candidate [ 22 ]
  • [ 31 ] — hamber of Commerce [ 31 ]
  • state senators — ors [ 20 ]
last poll 4 weeks ago (4/14/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Tilt R R+1.3 via polls