Races · Senate · 2026 · NC
Senate · class II · open seat

North Carolina Senate

← MT Senate NE Senate →
Likely D D +10.2 · 176 days to election · 0 polls · 4 markets Last poll 16d ago Markets 4d ago Rating 1d ago
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet

The last rating change here was 1d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.

Where this race stands
Verified

Likely D · model 76% R

likely-d · uncertainty-high
Forecast · poliagg-v8
Predicted final margin
R +3.0
80% CI: R +7.4 → D +1.5 · win prob 24%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
Polls used0
Days to election181
Residual σ3.44pt
Generated5/6/2026
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
D +2.8
80% CI R +1.4 → D +6.1
CV MAE 7.21
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +7.0
80% CI D +5.8 → D +8.3
CV MAE 0.97
poliagg-v8Ensemble (production)
R +3.0
80% CI R +7.4 → D +1.5
CV MAE 3.44

Endorsements

Source · Wikipedia · 28 total
Roy Cooper (D)
28 endorsements · source
Elected officials (6)
  • Canton — athers, mayor of Canton (2017–present) [ 58 ]
  • Chuck Schumer — Senate Minority Leader (2017–2021, 2025–present) from New York (1999–present) [ 55 ]
  • Deborah Ross — NC-02 (2021–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016 [ 55 ]
  • Jeff Jackson — attorney general of North Carolina (2025–present) [ 54 ]
  • Josh Stein — governor of North Carolina (2025–present) [ 57 ]
  • Kamala Harris — former vice president of the United States (2021–2025) [ 45 ]
Organizations / unions (7)
  • American Federation of Government Employees — [ 59 ]
  • Anderson Clayton — chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party (2023–present) [ 57 ]
  • Jewish Democratic Council of America — [ 64 ]
  • League of Conservation Voters — [ 65 ]
  • National Education Association — [ 60 ]
  • North Carolina Association of Educators — [ 60 ]
  • Planned Parenthood Action Fund — [ 66 ]
Other (15)
  • 30 — 40%
  • 50 — 60%
  • 60 — 70%
  • 70 — 80%
  • 80 — 90%
  • 90 — 100%
  • >90%
  • Democratic Majority for Israel — [ 61 ]
  • End Citizens United — [ 62 ]
  • Giffords — [ 63 ]
  • Kirsten Gillibrand — New York (2009–present) [ 55 ]
  • Red Wine & Blue — [ 67 ]
  • Reproductive Freedom for All — [ 68 ]
  • Sierra Club — [ 69 ]
  • Wiley Nickel — former NC-13 (2023–2025) [ 51 ]

Editorial ratings · poll-vs-rater

3 raters
Rater Rating Updated Poll D-marg. Rater marg. Δ poll−rater
The Cook Political Report Lean D Apr 13 +10.2 +3.5 +6.7
Inside Elections Tossup Mar 25 +10.2 0.0 +10.2
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tossup Mar 4 +10.2 0.0 +10.2

Δ POLL−RATER = polling-consensus margin minus the rater's implied bucket midpoint. Positive = polls more D than rater; negative = rater more D than polls. |Δ| < 0.6 well-aligned · 0.6–1.5 mild divergence · ≥1.5 contested call.

last poll 2 weeks ago (4/24/2026) last market quote 4 days ago rating computed 1 day ago
Rating history (1 change)
  • 5/3/2026 Likely D D+10.2 via polls

In the news

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