Races · Senate · 2026 · North Carolina
Senate · class II · open seat
Roy Cooper vs Michael Whatley
Where this race stands
VerifiedLikely D · model 53% D
Polling average rates this race Likely D (D+8.7, sourced from polls).
The poliagg-v34 ensemble forecasts D+0.6 with an 80% CI ranging from R+9.7 (10th pctile) to D+10.9 (90th pctile), giving D a 53% chance of winning.
This race was decisive in 6.2% of chamber-control simulations — one of the most consequential seats this cycle.
Polling momentum is moving toward R at 2.5pp/wk over the 30d window — a real shift, not noise.
Uncertainty score: 64/100 (high). Key drivers: wide forecast CI (20.5pp); models disagree by 12.9pp. Treat any single point estimate with extra caution.
CITATIONS · likely-d · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
64
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (20.5pp).
Forecast CI width68
20.5pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution68 / 100
Measured20.5pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement65
12.9pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution65 / 100
Measured12.9pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion30
3.0pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution30 / 100
Measured3.0pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity0
8 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution0 / 100
Measured8 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
D +0.6
80% CI: R +9.7 → D +10.9 · win prob 53%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 36 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.01pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +4.1
80% CI R +11.5 → R +3.4
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +8.8
80% CI D +7.5 → D +10.1
CV MAE 1.01
consensusMarket-implied
D +9.5
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
Prediction markets
Consensus · D 85¢4 platformsupdated 11h ago
DisagreementMarkets are 36 points more bullish on D than polling. Markets 85% · polls 49%.
Cross-platform price · history
Per-platform · current
| Platform | D YES | R YES | 7d Δ | Vol | vs cons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket “Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 202…” | 87¢ | 14¢ | +1¢ | — | +2 |
| Predictit “Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in North Ca…” | 82¢ | 18¢ | +0¢ | — | -3 |
| Kalshi “North Carolina Senate winner?” | 88¢ | 13¢ | +2¢ | $6K | +3 |
| Manifold “Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Senate race…” | 82¢ | 18¢ | -3¢ | — | -3 |
Kalshi sits 3¢ above consensus.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
4 polls · through Jun 27, 2026 · latest The New York Times/Siena University
Roy Cooper
VoteHub49.2%
VoteHub
Polling average49.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg49.0%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average49.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.2 pt above our average
Michael Whatley
VoteHub39.4%
VoteHub
Polling average39.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg39.4%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average39.4%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.0 pt below our average
VoteHub's independent average across 4 polls (through Jun 27, 2026): Roy Cooper 49.2%, Michael Whatley 39.4%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 36 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 26 | Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 601 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 50 · 43 |
| Jun 26, 26 | New York Times/Siena University+1For · Siena University | 601 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.3d lean | 50 · 43 |
| Jun 22, 26 | Catawba CollegeFor · Catawba College | 905 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 · 34 |
| Jun 9, 26 | Catawba College/YouGovFor · YouGov | 905 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 48 · 34 |
| May 17, 26 | Change ResearchFor · Google Docs | 957 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 49 · 42 |
| May 13, 26 | Harper Polling | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.7d lean | 50 · 39 |
| May 10, 26 | Harper Polling+1For · Internal R-aligned | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.7d lean | 50 · 39 |
| May 7, 26 | Change Research+1For · Internal D-aligned | 957 · LV | D-LEAN | D +3.718 tracked | +5.7noisy | 49 · 42 |
| Apr 28, 26 | Opinion Diagnostics+1For · The Center Square | 830 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | -3.2r lean | 50 · 41 |
| Apr 23, 26 | Opinion DiagnosticsFor · Internal R-aligned | 830 · unknown | NEUTRAL | — | -3.2r lean | 50 · 41 |
Endorsements · 32 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet22
10
Endorsements tracked
Roy Cooper22 · 69%
Michael Whatley10 · 31%
Total32
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
DRoy Cooper22 endorsers
Most notable · Kamala Harris · former vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
Organizations12
Organizations · 12
- American Federation of Government Employees
- Democratic Majority for Israel
- End Citizens United
- Giffords
- Jewish Democratic Council of America
- League of Conservation Voters
- National Education Association
- North Carolina Association of Educators
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- Red Wine & Blue
- Reproductive Freedom for All
- Sierra Club
Elected officials10
Federal 5State 3Local 1
Elected officials · 10
- Kamala Harris · former vice president of the United States (2021–2025)
- Chuck Schumer · Senate minority leader (2017–2021, 2025–present) from New York (1999–present)
- Anderson Clayton · chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party (2023–present)
- Josh Stein · governor of North Carolina (2025–present)
- Wes Moore · governor of Maryland (2023–present)
- Jeff Jackson · attorney general of North Carolina (2025–present)
- Deborah Ross · NC-02 (2021–present) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016
- Canton · athers, mayor of Canton (2017–present)
- Kirsten Gillibrand · New York (2009–present)
- Wiley Nickel · former NC-13 (2023–2025)
RMichael Whatley10 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 5State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice president of the United States (2025–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Lara Trump · former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025) and daughter-in-law of President Donald Trump
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Americans for Prosperity
- Republican National Committee
- Turning Point Action
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- The Charlotte Observer
- The News & Observer
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing 2026-07-03Michael WhatleyS6NC00415 ↗
Receipts
$8.4M
Disburse
$5.9M
Cash on hand
$2.5M
Debts
$666.4K
Top industries
Securities & investment$54.0K
Securities & investment · $54.0K
- Blackstone · $34.0K
- Kkr · $20.0K
Individuals $54.0K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$20.0K
Lawyers / law firms · $20.0K
- Davis Polk · $20.0K
Individuals $20.0K · PACs $0
Mining$17.5K
Mining · $17.5K
- Alliance Coal · $17.5K
Individuals $17.5K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$14.0K
Oil & gas · $14.0K
- Conocophillips · $14.0K
Individuals $14.0K · PACs $0
Top contributors
ENTREPRENEUR$57.1K
BLACKSTONE$34.0K
MILLER STRATEGIES$22.0K
KKR$20.0K
DAVIS POLK$20.0K
Roy CooperS6NC00407 ↗
Receipts
$26.8M
Disburse
$8.4M
Cash on hand
$18.5M
Debts
$0
Top industries
Education$114.8K
Education · $114.8K
- Duke University · $114.8K
Individuals $114.8K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$104.8K
Lawyers / law firms · $104.8K
- Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check LLP · $39.5K
- Lieff Cabraser Heimann & Bernstein LLP · $34.3K
- Wilmerhale LLP · $31.1K
Individuals $104.8K · PACs $0
Securities & investment$34.8K
Securities & investment · $34.8K
- Jane Street Capital · $34.8K
Individuals $34.8K · PACs $0
Govt employees$33.4K
Govt employees · $33.4K
- State of North Carolina · $33.4K
Individuals $33.4K · PACs $0
TV / movies / music$21.8K
TV / movies / music · $21.8K
- Netflix · $21.8K
Individuals $21.8K · PACs $0
Top contributors
DUKE UNIVERSITY$114.8K
UNC CHAPEL HILL$45.7K
KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK LLP$39.5K
JANE STREET CAPITAL$34.8K
LIEFF CABRASER HEIMANN & BERNSTEIN LLP$34.3K
Outside spending · independent expenditures
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · 24/48-hr IE reportsIE total
$5.9M
D side
$46.9K · 1%
R side
$5.9M · 99%
Top spender
Americans for Prosp…
| Spender | Side | Amount | Share | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americans for Prosperity Action, Inc. (AFP Action) DBA CVA Action and DBA LIBRE Action super pac · boosts R
| R | $4.6M | 78% | for Michael Whatley |
| SLF PAC super pac · boosts R
| R | $1.2M | 21% | for Michael Whatley |
| Forward Blue PAC super pac · boosts D
| D | $24.5K | 0% | for Roy Cooper |
| CatholicVote.org pac · boosts R
| R | $17.9K | 0% | against Roy Cooper |
| ModSquad Action pac · boosts D
| D | $15.0K | 0% | for Roy Cooper |
| RED SENATE super pac · boosts R
| R | $392.31 | 0% | for Michael Whatley |
Editorial ratings · 5 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Likely D1
Likely D · 1 rater
- The Economist · Jun 3
Lean D3
Lean D · 3 raters
- The Cook Political Report · Jun 1
- RealClearPolitics · May 23
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 10
Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- Inside Elections · Apr 22
The Cook Political Report
Lean DThe Economist
Likely DInside Elections
TossupRealClearPolitics
Lean DSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean DDemographic crosstabs
1 poll with subgroup dataAge
18-29D +56
56%0%
Age · 18-29
Democrat56%
Republican0%
Other / undecided44%
MarginD +56
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
30-44D +55
55%0%
Age · 30-44
Democrat55%
Republican0%
Other / undecided45%
MarginD +55
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
45-64D +47
47%0%
Age · 45-64
Democrat47%
Republican0%
Other / undecided53%
MarginD +47
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
65+D +52
52%0%
Age · 65+
Democrat52%
Republican0%
Other / undecided48%
MarginD +52
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Party
DemD +95
95%0%
Party · Dem
Democrat95%
Republican0%
Other / undecided5%
MarginD +95
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
RepD +10
10%0%
Party · Rep
Democrat10%
Republican0%
Other / undecided90%
MarginD +10
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Race
OtherD +56
56%0%
Race · Other
Democrat56%
Republican0%
Other / undecided44%
MarginD +56
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
WhiteD +42
42%0%
Race · White
Democrat42%
Republican0%
Other / undecided58%
MarginD +42
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Region
EastD +61
61%0%
Region · East
Democrat61%
Republican0%
Other / undecided39%
MarginD +61
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
MetroD +41
41%0%
Region · Metro
Democrat41%
Republican0%
Other / undecided59%
MarginD +41
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
WestD +52
52%0%
Region · West
Democrat52%
Republican0%
Other / undecided48%
MarginD +52
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.17
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.22 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.17
Week-over-weekshift −0.22 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 17%
Neutral 83%
17% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets17%
Neutral83%
R-leaning outlets0%
17% of outlets classified by editorial lean
S
New York Times/Siena Polls in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio
N
Michael Whatley’s Michigan roots largely disappear from his bio as he runs for Senate in North Carolina
S
Survey finds Roy Cooper continues to hold double digit lead in N.C. Senate race
W
New poll shows Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley by 14 points in North Carolina US Senate race
W
Poll shows Cooper leading Whatley by wide margin in NC Senate race
C
Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by 14 points in new NC Senate race poll
N
North Carolina U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
T
Election 2026: No change in Cooper’s 14-point lead in Catawba poll
N
Roy Cooper’s Chances of Beating Michael Whatley in North Carolina—Polls
C
New NC poll shows Roy Cooper and other Democrats gaining big ground in midterms | Opinion
Page 1 of 2
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified32 / 36deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested4 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks