CC BY-SA 4.0
RepublicanRunning for NC U.S. Senate · 2026
Michael Whatley
Former Chairman, Republican National Committee
A veteran party operative making his first run for elective office, Whatley chaired the North Carolina GOP through the 2020 and 2024 cycles before being elected RNC chairman in March 2024 alongside co-chair Lara Trump. He stepped down in mid-2025 to run for the open Senate seat with President Trump's endorsement.
Born Oct 7, 1968 · Lansing, Michigan (raised in Blowing Rock, NC)Profession Attorney · party official
In brief
A first-time candidate with the national party machine behind him — well-funded and Trump-endorsed, but still unknown to about half the electorate a year into the race.
39.4%
Polling average
our aggregate
14%
Win probability
market-implied
+3
Net favorability
latest public poll
$8.4M
Raised this cycle
FEC · committee
0 / 0
Statewide wins
first run for elective office
Independence scorecard
Computed · FEC money mixWho Whatley's money comes from.
C+
48/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — in-state funding is the watch item.
2 watch items · in-state funding
Small-dollar reliance56
28% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence36
16% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding34
66% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure67
$4.2M in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Career & history
1997Notre Dame Law, J.D.
Clerked on the Fourth Circuit, then worked on the Bush 2000 campaign and in the Energy Department.
2004Chief of Staff, Sen. Elizabeth Dole
Ran the North Carolina senator's office through 2007, then moved into energy lobbying.
2019Chairman, NC Republican Party
Led the state party through the 2020 and 2024 cycles.
2024Chairman, Republican National Committee
Elected March 2024 with Trump's backing, alongside co-chair Lara Trump.
2025U.S. Senate candidate
Stepped down from the RNC and announced in July 2025 with Trump's endorsement.
Public favorability
25.4%
Favorable
21.9%
Unfavorable
+3
Net
52.7% HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVEN'T HEARD ENOUGH · CAROLINA JOURNAL / HARPER POLLING · MAY 2026 · N=600 LV · ±4.0PP
Favorability over time
Jul ’25NET FAVORABLE ↑May ’26
Jul ’25 · Emerson College17 / 16
Sep ’25 · High Point University15 / 23
Jan ’26 · High Point University23 / 20
Mar ’26 · Elon University25 / 34
May ’26 · Carolina Journal / Harper25.4 / 21.9
ROUGHLY HALF OF VOTERS STILL CAN'T RATE HIM — THE READINGS TRACK NAME RECOGNITION AS MUCH AS SENTIMENT.
Donors & money
FEC itemized filings · cycle-to-dateWho funds the campaign.
$8.4M
Raised
$5.9M
Spent
$2.5M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
28% small (<$200)56% large indiv.16% PAC
34% in-state · 66% out-of-state (itemized)
Top contributors · bundled by employer / org
ENTREPRENEUR
$57k
BLACKSTONE
$34k
MILLER STRATEGIES
$22k
KKR
$20k
DAVIS POLK
$20k
MILLER STRATEGIES LLC
$18k
Top industries · itemized $
Securities & investment$54k
Lawyers / law firms$20k
Mining$18k
Oil & gas$14k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
The contest Whatley is running in.
NC · SENATE · 2026likely d
Whatley (R) vs Roy Cooper (D)
39.4%−9.6 Cooper49%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Live contract prices tied to Whatley and the seat. Prices are ¢-per-share of the YES outcome; context only, never merged into our polling averages.
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Roy Cooper (D)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Michael Whatley (R)
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in North Carolina?
predictit · Democratic Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in North Carolina?
predictit · Republican Party
North Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $4k · Michael Whatley
North Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $3k · Roy Cooper
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Favorability
Published polls
Carolina Journal / Harper Polling · May 2026 · n=600 LV · ±4.0pp
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE · CC BY-SA 4.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)
Related coverage
sri.siena.edu · 2026-07-01
New York Times/Siena Polls in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio
nbcnews.com · 2026-06-25
Michael Whatley’s Michigan roots largely disappear from his bio as he runs for Senate in North Carolina
spectrumlocalnews.com · 2026-06-25
Survey finds Roy Cooper continues to hold double digit lead in N.C. Senate race
wcnc.com · 2026-06-25
New poll shows Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley by 14 points in North Carolina US Senate race
Republican · NC U.S. Senate
Michael Whatley
Former Chairman, Republican National Committee
A veteran party operative making his first run for elective office, Whatley chaired the North Carolina GOP through the 2020 and 2024 cycles before being elected RNC chairman in March 2024 alongside co-chair Lara Trump. He stepped down in mid-2025 to run for the open Senate seat with President Trump's endorsement.
Where Whatley standsRace →
Whatley 39.4%Roy Cooper 49%
Market · wins
14¢
+3 net fav
39.4%
Poll avg
14%
Win prob
+3
Net fav
$8.4M
Raised
0 / 0
Statewide wins
In brief
A first-time candidate with the national party machine behind him — well-funded and Trump-endorsed, but still unknown to about half the electorate a year into the race.
Governing & voting record
—
No legislative record
Roll-call votes and sponsored bills are collected for members of Congress from congress.gov. There is no roll-call source for this office yet.
Where they stand
—
Key positions not yet compiled
Positions are drawn from the candidate's public record and statements. We haven't compiled a verified set for this candidate yet.
Career & history
1997Notre Dame Law, J.D.
Clerked on the Fourth Circuit, then worked on the Bush 2000 campaign and in the Energy Department.
2004Chief of Staff, Sen. Elizabeth Dole
Ran the North Carolina senator's office through 2007, then moved into energy lobbying.
2019Chairman, NC Republican Party
Led the state party through the 2020 and 2024 cycles.
2024Chairman, Republican National Committee
Elected March 2024 with Trump's backing, alongside co-chair Lara Trump.
2025U.S. Senate candidate
Stepped down from the RNC and announced in July 2025 with Trump's endorsement.
Public favorability
25.4%
Favorable
21.9%
Unfavorable
+3
Net
52.7% HAVE NO OPINION OR HAVEN'T HEARD ENOUGH · CAROLINA JOURNAL / HARPER POLLING · MAY 2026 · N=600 LV · ±4.0PP
Favorability over time
Jul ’25NET FAVORABLE ↑May ’26
Jul ’25 · Emerson College17 / 16
Sep ’25 · High Point University15 / 23
Jan ’26 · High Point University23 / 20
Mar ’26 · Elon University25 / 34
May ’26 · Carolina Journal / Harper25.4 / 21.9
ROUGHLY HALF OF VOTERS STILL CAN'T RATE HIM — THE READINGS TRACK NAME RECOGNITION AS MUCH AS SENTIMENT.
Independence scorecard
Who Whatley's money comes from.
C+
48/100
Independence index
A mixed funding picture — in-state funding is the watch item.
2 watch items · in-state funding
Small-dollar reliance56
28% of individual + PAC money from donors under $200
PAC independence36
16% of individual + PAC money from PACs
In-state funding34
66% of itemized receipts come from out of state
Outside-money exposure67
$4.2M in outside spending supports the campaign
MONEY-MIX INDEX, COMPUTED FROM FEC FILINGS ONLY: SMALL-DOLLAR SHARE, PAC RELIANCE, IN-STATE MONEY AND OUTSIDE (IE) SPENDING. IT DOES NOT SCORE VOTES OR DONOR–VOTE ALIGNMENT. HIGHER = MORE INDEPENDENT · GREEN ≥70 · AMBER 50–69 · RED <50.
How they vote
—
No party-unity or ideology scores
Party-unity and DW-NOMINATE ideology scores are only available for candidates with a congressional roll-call record.
Ratings from advocacy groups
—
No advocacy-group ratings
Interest-group scorecards have no machine-readable feed — they're curated per candidate, and none are on file yet.
Donors & money
$8.4M
Raised
$5.9M
Spent
$2.5M
Cash on hand
Source of funds · individual + PAC
28% small (<$200)56% large indiv.16% PAC
34% in-state · 66% out-of-state (itemized)
Top industries · itemized $
Securities & investment$54k
Lawyers / law firms$20k
Mining$18k
Oil & gas$14k
OWN-COMMITTEE TOTALS FROM FEC FILINGS THROUGH 2026-03-31 · INDUSTRY GROUPS ARE ITEMIZED RECEIPTS CLASSIFIED BY EMPLOYER — A KEYWORD APPROXIMATION, NOT OPENSECRETS CODING. SOURCE: FEC ↗
Race
NC · SENATE · 2026likely d
Whatley (R) vs Roy Cooper (D)
39.4%−9.6 Cooper49%
Open full race detail →
Related prediction markets
All markets →Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Roy Cooper (D)
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Polymarket · Michael Whatley (R)
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in North Carolina?
predictit · Democratic Party
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in North Carolina?
predictit · Republican Party
North Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $4k · Michael Whatley
North Carolina Senate winner?
Kalshi · vol $3k · Roy Cooper
Sources & provenance
Biography
Public record
Wikipedia + state records
Money & donors
FEC filings
itemized + committee totals
Favorability
Published polls
Carolina Journal / Harper Polling · May 2026 · n=600 LV · ±4.0pp
Markets
Live venues
Polymarket · Kalshi
ALL FIGURES DRAWN FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE RECORDS · CANDIDATE PROFILES ARE NONPARTISAN AND CARRY NO ENDORSEMENT. · PHOTO: GAGE SKIDMORE · CC BY-SA 4.0 (WIKIMEDIA COMMONS)