Republican primary · March 3, 2026
North Carolina Senate Republican primary
Michael Whatley won the Republican primary on March 3, 2026, advancing to the general election on November 3, 2026.
Caution · early warning
Editorial raters moved while polling has gone quiet
The last rating change here was 4d ago, but only 0 polls have landed in the last 60 days. When raters move and pollsters don't, the rating shift may be running ahead of the data. Watch for a late-cycle correction in either direction.
Where this race stands
VerifiedShowing the Republican primary view. General-election ratings, forecasts, and tipping-point odds aren't meaningful for a single-party primary — switch to the general election view for those.
Primary result · Republican primary
Official outcome · March 3, 2026 · forecast shown for reference1Michael WhatleyFormer RNC chair · NC business
2Don Brown
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
All polls · 8 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Whatley | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 26 | High Point Univ. | 260 · LV | 38 | — |
| Feb 25, 26 | Harper Polling | 600 · LV | 38 | — |
| Feb 22, 26 | Harper Polling | 600 · LV | 38 | — |
| Feb 19, 26 | High Point University | — · unknown | 38 | — |
| Jan 6, 26 | Change Research | 530 · LV | 36 | — |
| Nov 28, 24 | Victory Insights | 800 · LV | — | — |
| Nov 14, 24 | Campaign Viability Research | 800 · LV | — | — |
| Nov 14, 24 | Campaign Viability Research | 800 · LV | — | — |
Endorsements · Republican primary · 10 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yetMichael Whatley · 10
RMichael Whatley10 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials5
Federal 5State 0Local 0
Elected officials · 5
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice president of the United States (2025–present)
- John Thune · Senate majority leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)
- Lara Trump · former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025) and daughter-in-law of President Donald Trump
- Tim Scott · South Carolina (2013–present)
Organizations3
Organizations · 3
- Americans for Prosperity
- Republican National Committee
- Turning Point Action
Newspapers2
Newspapers · 2
- The Charlotte Observer
- The News & Observer
Money in this primary
FEC · per-candidate committees · last filing 2026-07-03Michael WhatleyS6NC00415 ↗
Raised
$8.41M
Cash on hand
$2.53M
Top industries
Securities & investment$54K
Securities & investment · $54K
- Blackstone · $34K
- Kkr · $20K
Individuals $54K · PACs $0
Lawyers / law firms$20K
Lawyers / law firms · $20K
- Davis Polk · $20K
Individuals $20K · PACs $0
Mining$18K
Mining · $18K
- Alliance Coal · $18K
Individuals $18K · PACs $0
Oil & gas$14K
Oil & gas · $14K
- Conocophillips · $14K
Individuals $14K · PACs $0
Thom TillisS4NC00162 ↗
Raised
$4.71M
Cash on hand
$3.68M
Top industries
Lawyers / law firms$14K
Lawyers / law firms · $14K
- Kirkland & Ellis LLP · $14K
Individuals $14K · PACs $0
Don BrownS6NC00373 ↗
Raised
$225K
Cash on hand
$0
Top industries
Commercial banks$4K
Commercial banks · $4K
- Bank of America · $4K
Individuals $4K · PACs $0
Real estate$4K
Real estate · $4K
- Soutier Properties · $4K
Individuals $4K · PACs $0
Demographic crosstabs
1 poll with subgroup data · general-election splitsAge
18-29D +56
56%0%
Age · 18-29
Democrat56%
Republican0%
Other / undecided44%
MarginD +56
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
30-44D +55
55%0%
Age · 30-44
Democrat55%
Republican0%
Other / undecided45%
MarginD +55
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
45-64D +47
47%0%
Age · 45-64
Democrat47%
Republican0%
Other / undecided53%
MarginD +47
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
65+D +52
52%0%
Age · 65+
Democrat52%
Republican0%
Other / undecided48%
MarginD +52
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Party
DemD +95
95%0%
Party · Dem
Democrat95%
Republican0%
Other / undecided5%
MarginD +95
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
RepD +10
10%0%
Party · Rep
Democrat10%
Republican0%
Other / undecided90%
MarginD +10
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Race
OtherD +56
56%0%
Race · Other
Democrat56%
Republican0%
Other / undecided44%
MarginD +56
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
WhiteD +42
42%0%
Race · White
Democrat42%
Republican0%
Other / undecided58%
MarginD +42
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
Region
EastD +61
61%0%
Region · East
Democrat61%
Republican0%
Other / undecided39%
MarginD +61
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
MetroD +41
41%0%
Region · Metro
Democrat41%
Republican0%
Other / undecided59%
MarginD +41
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
WestD +52
52%0%
Region · West
Democrat52%
Republican0%
Other / undecided48%
MarginD +52
Siena College · field end 2026-07-01
In the news
12 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
12 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles12
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.17
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift −0.22 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.17
Week-over-weekshift −0.22 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 17%
Neutral 83%
17% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets17%
Neutral83%
R-leaning outlets0%
17% of outlets classified by editorial lean
S
New York Times/Siena Polls in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio
N
Michael Whatley’s Michigan roots largely disappear from his bio as he runs for Senate in North Carolina
S
Survey finds Roy Cooper continues to hold double digit lead in N.C. Senate race
W
New poll shows Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley by 14 points in North Carolina US Senate race
W
Poll shows Cooper leading Whatley by wide margin in NC Senate race
C
Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley by 14 points in new NC Senate race poll
N
North Carolina U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Polls
T
Election 2026: No change in Cooper’s 14-point lead in Catawba poll
N
Roy Cooper’s Chances of Beating Michael Whatley in North Carolina—Polls
C
New NC poll shows Roy Cooper and other Democrats gaining big ground in midterms | Opinion
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Verification trail
Polls verified0 / 8deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested4 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE · 2026-07-03
Endorsements57 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage12 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks