Races · Governor · 2026 · Ohio
Governor · open seat
Amy Acton vs Vivek Ramaswamy
Where this race stands
VerifiedAmy Acton (D) and Vivek Ramaswamy (R) face off for Ohio governor on November 3, 2026. The race rates as a tossup based on polls, with an aggregate margin of just 0.3 points. The most recent survey, a New York Times/Siena University poll of 601 likely voters conducted through June 28, found Ramaswamy and Acton tied at 47% each [1]. Prediction markets lean slightly toward Ramaswamy: Kalshi prices him at 54% [6] and Polymarket has the Republican at 51.5% [7].
CITATIONS · tossup · high-tipping · trending-r · uncertainty-high
How confident are we?0 = certain · 100 = max uncertain
Combined
62
High uncertainty
Main driver: wide forecast CI (22.0pp).
Forecast CI width73
22.0pp 80% interval
Forecast CI width
Contribution73 / 100
Measured22.0pp 80% interval
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Inter-model disagreement69
13.8pp across models
Inter-model disagreement
Contribution69 / 100
Measured13.8pp across models
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Pollster dispersion13
1.3pp cross-pollster spread
Pollster dispersion
Contribution13 / 100
Measured1.3pp cross-pollster spread
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Polling sparsity13
7 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Polling sparsity
Contribution13 / 100
Measured7 polls in 60d · target ≥ 8
Each driver is scaled 0–100; higher pushes the combined uncertainty score up. Lower it with more recent, tightly-clustered polls and models that agree.
Forecast · poliagg-v34
Predicted final margin
R +13.2
80% CI: R +24.2 → R +2.2 · win prob 6%
R+30R+15TIEDD+15D+30
Quality · inputs
Data quality · high
| Polls used | 27 |
| Days to election | 118 |
| Residual σ | 8.57pt |
| Generated | 7/7/2026 |
▼ Compare with other models3 models
qgbt-v1GBT (qgbt)
R +10.6
80% CI R +13.6 → D +1.1
CV MAE 8.51
bayes-v1Bayes / Kalman
D +0.6
80% CI R +0.8 → D +2.0
CV MAE 1.07
consensusMarket-implied
R +0.7
no interval
market-implied
Polling average
Weighted, plus each pollster's measured bias subtracted before averaging.
External cross-checkExternal
Not part of our model or polling averageVoteHubaggregator ↗
3 polls · through Jun 28, 2026 · latest The New York Times/Siena University
Amy Acton
VoteHub48.0%
VoteHub
Polling average48.0%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg47.3%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average47.3%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.7 pt above our average
Vivek Ramaswamy
VoteHub46.7%
VoteHub
Polling average46.7%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
PoliAgg avg46.2%
PoliAgg avg
Polling average46.2%
Bars are scaled to a 60% ceiling — candidate shares don’t sum to 100% once undecided/other voters are set aside.
Δ 0.5 pt above our average
VoteHub's independent average across 3 polls (through Jun 28, 2026): Amy Acton 48.0%, Vivek Ramaswamy 46.7%.
Independent comparison only — not part of our forecast or polling average. VoteHub aggregates its own poll set; the two candidates shown are its top by average and may not match our field.
All polls · 27 results
strongpositiveinfocautionflag
| Date | Pollster · trust signals | n · pop | Lean | Bias · track | vs raters | D · R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 26 | Siena College+1For · The New York Times | 601 · LV | NEUTRAL | D +0.715 tracked | +1.2aligned | 47 · 47 |
| Jun 27, 26 | New York Times/Siena University+1For · Siena University | 601 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | +4.3d lean | 47 · 47 |
| Jun 24, 26 | AARP | 800 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 47 · 44 |
| Jun 15, 26 | Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research+1For · Impact Research (D) | 800 · LV | D-LEAN | — | +0.8aligned | 47 · 44 |
| Jun 3, 26 | Tulchin ResearchFor · Internal D-aligned | 600 · LV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 47 · 44 |
| Jun 2, 26 | Fox NewsFor · Fox News | 1,015 · RV | D-LEAN | D +2.121 tracked | +2.7d lean | 50 · 49 |
| May 31, 26 | Beacon Research (D)/Shaw & Co. Research+1For · Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,015 · RV | R-LEAN | — | +5.2d lean | 50 · 49 |
| Apr 20, 26 | Echelon Insights+1 | 413 · LV | NEUTRAL | R +1.36 tracked | +3.3noisy | 44 · 49 |
| Apr 19, 26 | Bowling Green Univ. | 1,000 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | — | 47 · 48 |
| Apr 13, 26 | Bowling Green State University/YouGovFor · YouGov | 1,000 · RV | NEUTRAL | — | +2.2d lean | 47 · 48 |
Endorsements · 94 total
Source · Wikipedia · 0 candidates with no endorsements yet39
55
Endorsements tracked
Amy Acton39 · 41%
Vivek Ramaswamy55 · 59%
Total94
Scraped from each candidate’s Wikipedia endorsement list.
RVivek Ramaswamy55 endorsers
Most notable · Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
Elected officials32
Federal 18State 4Local 2
Elected officials · 32
- Donald Trump · president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)
- JD Vance · vice president of the United States (2025–present)
- Theresa Gavarone · majority leader of the Ohio Senate (2025–present) from the 2nd district (2019–present)
- Matt Huffman · speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 78th district (2025–present)
- Bob Taft · former governor of Ohio (1999–2007)
- Mike DeWine · governor of Ohio (2019–present)
- Frank LaRose · secretary of state of Ohio (2019–present)
- David Taylor · OH-02 (2025–present)
- Jim Jordan · OH-04 (2007–present)
- Michael Rulli · OH-06 (2024–present)
- Warren Davidson · OH-08 (2016–present)
- Elon Musk · former senior advisor to the president (2025) (Independent)
- Alex Triantafilou · chairman of the Ohio Republican Party (2023–present)
- Bernie Moreno · Ohio (2025–present)
- Bill Reineke · president pro tempore of the Ohio Senate (2025–present) from the 26th district (2021–present)
- Brad Wenstrup · former OH-02 (2013–2025)
- Christopher Smitherman · former vice mayor of Cincinnati (2018–2022) (Independent)
- Columbiana County Republican Party
- Cynthia Lummis · Wyoming (2021–present)
- Greg Lopez · former CO-04 (2024–2025) (Independent)
- Jon Husted · Ohio (2025–present)
- Marsha Blackburn · Tennessee (2019–present)
- Matt Miller · mayor of Ashland, Ohio
- Mike Lee · Utah (2011–present)
- Patrick F. Fischer · justice of the Ohio Supreme Court (2017–present)
- Rick Scott · Florida (2019–present)
- Rob McColley · president of the Ohio senate (2025–present) from the 1st district (2017–present)
- Rob Portman · former Ohio (2011–2023)
- Robert Sprague · state treasurer of Ohio (2019–present)
- Warren County Republican Party
- state representatives · representatives
- state senators · nt state senators
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- Affiliated Construction Trades of Ohio
- Armenian National Committee of America
- Central Midwest Regional Council of Carpenters
- Cleveland Building and Construction Trades Council
- Construction Employers Association
- International Union of Operating Engineers Local 18
- NRA Political Victory Fund
- Northwest Ohio Building and Construction Trades Council
- Ohio Cattlemen's Association
- Ohio Conference of Teamsters
- Ohio Corn & Wheat
- Ohio Laborers' District Council
- Ohio Real Estate Investors Association
- Ohio Right to Life
- Ohio State Association of Plumbers and Pipefitters
- Veterans for America First
Celebrity7
Celebrity · 7
- Donald Trump Jr. · businessman and son of president Donald Trump
- Aaron Baer · president of the Center for Christian Virtue
- Anthony Muñoz · former professional football player
- Charlie Kirk · co-founder of Turning Point USA (deceased)
- Jake Paul · professional boxer and YouTuber
- Ohio Republican Party
- Steve Hilton · former Fox News host and candidate in the 2026 California gubernatorial election
DAmy Acton39 endorsers
Most notable · Jaime Harrison · former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–2025)
Elected officials18
Federal 3State 8Local 6
Elected officials · 18
- Jaime Harrison · former chair of the Democratic National Committee (2021–2025)
- Andy Beshear · governor of Kentucky (2019–present)
- Dick Celeste · former governor of Ohio (1983–1991)
- Ted Strickland · former governor of Ohio (2007–2011)
- Jim Petro · former attorney general of Ohio (2003–2007) (Republican)
- state senators · former state senators
- Aftab Pureval · mayor of Cincinnati (2022–present)
- Andrew Ginther · mayor of Columbus (2016–present)
- Crystal Lett · state representative from the 11th district
- Ed Feighan · former OH-19 (1983–1993)
- Justin Bibb · mayor of Cleveland (2022–present)
- Mary Jo Kilroy · former OH-15 (2009–2011)
- Munira Abdullahi · state representative from the 9th district
- Nan Whaley · former mayor of Dayton (2014–2022) and Democratic nominee in the 2022 Ohio gubernatorial election
- Rachel Baker · state representative from the 27th district
- Sherrod Brown · former Ohio (2007–2025) and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2026
- Teresa Fedor · member of the Ohio State Board of Education from the 2nd district (2023–present)
- Wade Kapszukiewicz · mayor of Toledo (2018–present)
Organizations16
Organizations · 16
- 314 Action
- AFL-CIO · Ohio
- American Federation of Government Employees
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
- American Nurses Association · Ohio
- College Democrats of America
- Communications Workers of America
- EMILYs List
- End Citizens United
- International Union of Painters and Allied Trades
- Ohio Education Association
- Ohio Federation of Teachers
- Service Employees International Union
- United Auto Workers
- United Mine Workers of America
- United Steelworkers
Celebrity5
Celebrity · 5
- Connie Schultz · columnist and wife of Sherrod Brown
- Ed O'Neill · actor
- John Patterson · former state executive director of the Farm Service Agency (2022–2025)
- Nick Fuentes · far-right political commentator and influencer
- Ohio Democratic Party
Money raised · own committees
FEC Schedule E (independent expenditures) + candidate-committee totals · last filing —Vivek Ramaswamy
Receipts
$25.6M
Disburse
$19.7M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Amy Acton
Receipts
$10.6M
Disburse
$5.5M
Cash on hand
—
Debts
—
Top industries
No industry data.
Top contributors
No contributor data.
Editorial ratings · 4 raters
Cook · Sabato · Inside Elections · 538 · DDHQ et al.Tossup1
Tossup · 1 rater
- RealClearPolitics · Jun 4
Lean R3
Lean R · 3 raters
- Cook Political Report · May 20
- Inside Elections · Jun 24
- Sabato's Crystal Ball · Jun 1
Cook Political Report
Lean RInside Elections
Lean RRealClearPolitics
TossupSabato's Crystal Ball
Lean RDemographic crosstabs
age · education · race · genderNo demographic crosstabs published for this race yet. Most pollsters release only topline numbers; subgroup breakdowns (age, education, race, gender) appear here when a pollster publishes them.
In the news
40 shown · last 30d · Google NewsNews volume · 30d
83 articles · building history
News volume · last 30d
Articles83
Trendbuilding history
Article counts indexed by Google News; the sparkline traces weekly volume across the window.
Net favorability
+0.05
Coverage lean (D−R) · shift +0.15 wk
Net favorability
Score+0.05
Week-over-weekshift +0.15 wk
Tone of coverage, D minus R, scored from −1 (all R-favorable) to +1 (all D-favorable). 0 is balanced.
Coverage tilt
D 6%
Neutral 93%
R 1%
7% of outlets rated · by editorial lean
Coverage tilt · by outlet lean
D-leaning outlets6%
Neutral93%
R-leaning outlets1%
7% of outlets classified by editorial lean
D
Will Ohio flip in 2026? Polls show tight governor race
C
Ramaswamy’s misleading COVID attack ads on Acton omit his own pandemic advocacy
W
New poll shows Ohio's races for governor, US Senate to be deadlocked
D
Amy Acton in Dayton: Ohioans are longing for change
D
Amy Acton in Dayton: Ohioans are longing for change
N
Who Is Ahead in the Ohio Governor's Race? Latest 2026 Election Polls
A
Ohio State Council of Machinists Endorses Dr. Amy Acton’s Campaign for Governor
D
Vivek Ramaswamy distorts the truth about Ohio and COVID | Opinion
A
Washington Examiner: Acton’s fundraising matches Ramaswamy as Democrats see hope in Ohio polling
N
Ohio and Iowa Governors Races Tight, New Polls Show
Page 1 of 4
Rating timeline
Verification trail
Polls verified22 / 27deterministic
Polls flagged—none
Markets ingested2 platformsupdated 11h ago
FEC filingssyncedcommittee + IE
Endorsements97 totalWikipedia scrape
News coverage40 / 30dGoogle News
Method · bounds + percentage totals + date-order checks